Hong Kong, April 21, 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service says that the credit quality of many Chinese
property developers rated by Moody's will stay weak in 2016,
based on their financial results for the fiscal year ended 31 December
2015.
"The financial metrics of many rated Chinese property developers
weakened in 2015, as margins contracted amid rising land costs,
and developers' lowering of their inventory levels in lower-tier
cities," says Kaven Tsang, a Moody's Vice President
and Senior Credit Officer.
"Debt leverage also rose to support growth, and to take advantage
of cheaper domestic funding," adds Tsang.
"We believe that the overall credit quality of the Chinese developers
that we rate will remain weak for full year 2016, given the developers'
high leverage, expectation of slowing contracted sales growth and
the continuing pressure on their margins," says Cindy Yang,
a Moody's Analyst.
Moody's analysis is contained in its released report titled "Property
- China: 2015 Results Indicate Rated Portfolio's Credit
Quality Will Remain Weak in 2016," and is co-authored by
Tsang and Yang.
The report points out that margin pressure represents a key challenge
to the developers' credit quality in 2016.
The weighted average gross margin for the developers that Moody's
rates fell to 27.3% in 2015 from 29.6% in
2014. Moody's expects that gross margins will remain under
pressure over the next 12-18 months, given rising land costs
and continued revenue recognition of low-margin products sold,
especially in low-tier cities.
Nevertheless, the recent price increases in major Chinese cities
could partly offset the pressure on margins.
As for EBIT interest coverage, Moody's says that this metric
will stabilize in 2016 because the positive impact of lower funding costs
in China and the higher EBIT generation from revenue growth will likely
offset the companies' increased debt levels and slightly low profit
margins.
The weighted average EBIT interest coverage for Moody's rated portfolio
fell to 3.0x in 2015 from 3.3x in 2014. In 2016,
the ratio will likely stabilize at the 2015 level.
On leverage, Moody's report says that the developers'
leverage will stay high in 2016. The weighted average revenue/adjusted
debt for Moody's rated portfolio has slipped to 71% in 2015
from 76% in 2014. While Moody's expects that the ratio
will recover modestly to 72%-74% in 2016, such
a result would indicate that the developers' credit quality will
remain weak.
Moody's rates 50 property companies in China. Moody's
released report, focuses on 36 of the 50 developers that reported
their full year 2015 financial results before 31 March 2016. These
36 companies are among the largest and most representative developers
in Moody's rated portfolio.
A total of 14 rated property developers, out of the 36 covered in
Moody's report, saw their credit quality worsen in 2015.
Moody's took negative rating actions on eight of the 14 developers
in 2016 and one of the 14 in the latter part of 2015.
As for the remaining five developers - China Jinmao Holdings Group
Limited (Baa3 stable), Country Garden Holdings Company Limited (Ba1
stable), Shimao Property Holdings Limited (Ba2 stable), CIFI
Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd. (Ba3 stable) and Golden Wheel
Tiandi Holdings Company Limited (B2 stable), their ratings were
unchanged because Moody's expects their credit quality to recover gradually
in 2016.
Subscribers can access the report at: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1023452
The report may also be found through Moody's topic page titled:
China's Trilemma: Growth, Reform and Stability.
This page provides a centralized source for Moody's research related to
key credit issues in China as the country's macroeconomic story continues
to unfold.
Recent Moody's publications relating to China's Trilemma include:
• Chinese Diversified Technology Sector: Resilient Amid China's
Economic Rebalancing
• Regional and Local Governments—China: Assessing the
Standalone Credit Profiles of Lower-Tier Chinese RLGs
• China Property Focus—March 2016
• Oil and Gas—China: National Oil Companies' Aa3
Ratings Confirmation Reflects Strong Government Support and Financial
Flexibility
• Auto ABS—China: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions
About Performance
• Measures to Cool China's Hot Property Markets Are Credit
Negative for Developers
• Chinese Overcapacity Sectors: Financial Pressure Tests Implicit
Local Government Support
• Property—China: Developers Face Credit Negative Effects
from Measures to Dampen Price Surge in Shanghai and Shenzhen
• Automakers—China: Sales Growth to Accelerate in 2016
with Vehicle-Tax Cut but Slow in 2017
• Property—China: Ratings of Most Developers Are Unaffected
by Sovereign's Negative Outlook
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This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For
any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.
Kaven Tsang
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
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Gary Lau
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
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Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
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Moody's-rated Chinese property developers: Credit quality in 2016 to remain weak on high leverage and margin pressure