Milan, June 23, 2011 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed the long-term
debt and deposit ratings of 16 Italian banks and the long-term
issuer ratings of two Italian government-related financial institutions
(GRIs) on review for possible downgrade, subsequent to the rating
agency's announcement on 17 June 2011 that it had placed the Republic
of Italy's Aa2 bond rating on review for possible downgrade.
The rating agency also changed the outlook to negative from stable on
the long-term debt and deposit ratings of a further 13 Italian
banks, to reflect the longer-term rating pressure stemming
from a potential reassessment of the systemic support assumptions that
Moody's currently incorporates into the deposit and senior debt
ratings for these banks. This follows on from Moody's announcement
on 24 March 2011 of a reassessment of support assumptions for smaller
European financial institutions and subsequent steps already announced
in countries such as Spain and the UK. 17 banks are unaffected
by this announcement.
RATIONALE FOR THE REVIEW AND OUTLOOK CHANGE
Moody's says that there are three key drivers for today's
announcement.
(1) The review for possible downgrade of the Republic of Italy's
rating. This has triggered reviews for possible downgrade of the
banks and their subsidiaries with relatively high long-term deposit
and debt ratings, often in the double A or high single A category.
The ratings of these banks are sensitive to even a moderate change in
the government's credit standing and its ability to support the
country's banks.
(2) Moody's has also placed the banks' senior subordinated
ratings on review. These ratings would, at a minimum,
be affected by any change in the banks' senior debt and deposit
ratings. Moody's will also re-assess the support assumptions
for these subordinated securities, given the wider pressures on
subordinated debt noted in a Special Comment entitled "Supported
Bank Debt Ratings at Risk of Downgrade Due to New Approaches to Bank Resolution"
published on 14 February 2011 (http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_131068).
(3) As noted in a Special Comment entitled "Moody's Reassesses
Systemic Support for Senior Debt of Smaller European Financial Institutions:
Spanish Bank Ratings Downgraded as a First Step" published on 24
March 2011 (http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_131902)
Moody's said that it would reassess its assumptions on the willingness
of governments to support senior debt issued by smaller, less systemically
important financial institutions. Moody's has identified
34 Italian banks that fall into this category and whose ratings could
be at risk to such a shift in policy, over the longer term.
13 of these (Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena; Banco Popolare Societa
Cooperativa; Banca Nazionale del Lavoro; Cassa di Risparmio
di Parma e Piacenza; MPS Capital Services; Banca Carige;
Banca Sella Holding; Banca Popolare Friuladria; Cassa di Risp.di
Bolzano-Sudtirol; Cassa di Risparmio di Cesena; Banca
Padovana Credito Cooperativo; Cassa Centrale Banca; Cassa Centrale
Raiffeisen) are also affected by the action described above; a further
thirteen are not. Five are instead already under review and three
are already on negative outlook. In contrast to the situation in
certain other European countries, Moody's does not yet believe
that there has been a sufficient policy shift in Italy to justify rating
changes at this point in time. Therefore, today Moody's
is limiting itself to placing negative outlooks on the long-term
debt and deposit ratings of the 13 banks not covered by the review,
to reflect the potential for changes to the support framework over the
longer term and the consequent downside risks to those ratings.
For the 13 banks covered by the review, Moody's would,
in several cases, expect these risks to be reflected in negative
outlooks (regardless of the rating level), once the review has been
completed.
17 banks are unaffected by today's announcement. Of these,
eight do not have any systemic support incorporated into their ratings,
while one is on review for upgrade as it is subject to an acquisition.
A further five banks are already on review for possible downgrade,
and three on negative outlook, for bank-specific reasons.
The following banks' long-term deposit and debt ratings were
placed on review for possible downgrade:
Intesa Sanpaolo
Banca IMI
Banca CR Firenze
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena
MPS Capital Services
Cassa Depositi e Prestiti
Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro
Cassa di Risparmio di Parma e Piacenza
Banca Popolare Friuladria
Banca Carige
Banca Sella Holding
Cassa di Risp.di Bolzano-Sudtirol
Cassa di Risparmio di Cesena
Banca Padovana Credito Cooperativo
Cassa Centrale Banca
Cassa Centrale Raiffeisen
Istituto Servizi Mercato Agroalimentare
As a result, also the short-term debt and deposit ratings
of the following banks were put on review for possible downgrade:
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena
Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa
Banca Carige
Banca Sella Holding
Cassa di Risp.di Bolzano-Sudtirol
Banca Padovana Credito Cooperativo
Cassa Centrale Banca
Cassa Centrale Raiffeisen
The outlooks on the long-term debt and deposit ratings have been
changed to negative from stable for the following banks:
Unione di Banche Italiane
Credito Emiliano
Credito Valtellinese
Bancaperta
Banca delle Marche
Banca Italease
Banca Agrileasing
Banca Popolare Alto Adige
BancApulia
Banca Popolare di Cividale
Banca Tercas
Cassa di Risparmio della Provincia di Chieti
Banca Popolare di Spoleto
The following banks have deposit ratings already on negative outlook or
review for possible downgrade, which incorporate high levels of
systemic support which are likely to be reduced. As a result their
long-term deposit and debt ratings may be downgraded as a result
of both reduction in systemic support, and any potential downgrade
of their BFSR and relative mapping to the long-term scale:
UniCredit SpA
UniCredit Leasing
Dexia Crediop
Banca Popolare di Milano
Cassa di Risparmio di Ferrara
Efibanca
Cassa di Risparmio di Volterra
Banca Popolare di Marostica
Banks not included in this announcement have systemic support already
at normalised levels or no systemic support.
METHODOLOGY USED
The principal methodologies used in these ratings were Bank Financial
Strength Ratings: Global Methodology published in February 2007,
Incorporation of Joint-Default Analysis into Moody's Bank Ratings:
A Refined Methodology published in March 2007, and Government-Related
Issuers: Methodology Update published in July 2010.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on Moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history.
Milan
Henry MacNevin
Senior Vice President
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Italia S.r.l
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100
London
Johannes Wassenberg
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's Italia S.r.l
Corso di Porta Romana 68
Milan 20122
Italy
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100
Moody's reassesses Italian banks' support framework following Italy sovereign review