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Rating Action:

Moody's review of Italian RMBS sector triggers rating actions on 7 transactions

27 Nov 2012

NOTE: On March 19 2013, the press release was revised as follows: Removed “parties not involved in the ratings” as a source of information in the third paragraph of the Regulatory Disclosures section. Revised release follows.

NOTE: On December 4, 2012 the press release was revised as follows: In the third paragraph, the original text stating “The downgrades range from 1 to 4 notches with an average of 2 notches” is changed to “The downgrades range from 1 to 6 notches with an average of 3 notches”. Revised release follows.

London, 27 November 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today taken rating actions on seven Italian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions further to its reassessment of all Moody's-rated Italian RMBS. The rating agency's reassessment takes into consideration its updated European RMBS rating methodology, ongoing collateral performance deterioration as well as the deterioration of the ratings of the Italian sovereign and the transactions' counterparties over the last 12 months.

Moody's has commented on these rating drivers, which have developed in the past 12 months, in its Special Comment, "European ABS and RMBS: Structured finance ratings in Aaa-countries ratings are stable; downgrades expected in other countries" published on 14 November 2012.

Specifically, Moody's has today downgraded the ratings of three senior notes and 10 junior notes, in seven Italian RMBS transactions. The downgrades are driven primarily by the revision of key collateral assumptions following Moody's reassessment of the entire Italian RMBS sector. The downgrades range from 1 to 6 notches with an average of 3 notches. Please click on this link http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF308606 for the list of affected ratings. This list is an integral part of this press release. For a detailed rationale on each rating action, please refer to the list of affected credit ratings.

Moody's has also revised key collateral assumptions in 71 other transactions, which did not result in any rating change due to sufficient credit enhancement. The list of updated assumptions for the transactions is available under the following link: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF308609.

This reassessment also concludes the review of five tranches in three Italian RMBS transactions placed on review on 8 June 2012, following the release of the rating agency's updated methodology for rating EMEA RMBS transactions.

The ratings downgraded as part of today's rating action, as well as Italian RMBS previously placed on review, remain on review for downgrade pending the reassessment of (1) credit enhancement levels required to address the increased country risk exposure and/or (2) the rating impact resulting from linkage to weaker counterparties.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Today's rating action are driven by the revision of key collateral assumptions.

-- REVISION OF KEY COLLATERAL ASSUMPTIONS

Moody's has revised key collateral assumptions on 78 of the 121 Italian RMBS transactions that it currently rates. Moody's has revised the portfolio loss assumptions in transactions because of worse-than-expected collateral performance, which resulted in higher expected losses. Moody's has also reassessed the credit quality of the outstanding Italian RMBS portfolios to determine the credit enhancement (MILAN CE) in line with Moody's updated methodology for rating EMEA RMBS transactions. The updated European RMBS rating methodology is described in a report titled "Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS in Europe, Middle East, and Africa", and the "RMBS Rating Methodology Supplement for Italy" 6 June 2012.

- Expected loss (EL)

Italian RMBS collateral performance has deteriorated over the last 12 months. Delinquencies remain stable while defaults have increased quite significantly, according to the latest Italian RMBS indices published by Moody's. Moody's Italian Prime RMBS index reported 90+ day delinquencies at 1.58% of current balance in August 2012, which is in line with the 1.64% recorded in August 2011. The cumulative defaults index increased to 2.99% over original balance in August 2012 up from 2.28% a year earlier. The prepayment rate index continued its decline, standing at 3.3% in August 2012, which represents a 53% drop compared with the same period in the previous year. For more information on collateral performance, please see Moody's quarterly "Italian RMBS Indices".

The continued deterioration in cumulative defaults in the Italian RMBS market translated into higher projected EL assumptions for certain portfolios. Moody's negative outlook for Italian RMBS is also reflected in the updated assumptions (see outlook section below).

For the overall Italian RMBS market, Moody's is assuming an average of 3.6% future losses for seasoned transactions with relatively good asset performance. In the case of less seasoned transactions showing below average performance, Moody's expects an average of 4.6% future losses.

- MILAN CE

Moody's has revised its MILAN Credit Enhancement (MILAN CE) assumptions following publication of the updated methodology used in its RMBS collateral analysis. MILAN is the scoring model described in the EMEA RMBS methodology used to assist rating committees in determining the required credit enhancement for a pool of residential mortgage-backed loans. The key changes to the EMEA RMBS methodology include the introduction of a transaction minimum MILAN CE level and various default and severity setting adjustments in the scoring model.

The overall MILAN CE is subject to two separate floors, the Minimum Portfolio MILAN CE and the Minimum Expected Loss Multiple. The Minimum Portfolio MILAN CE for the best quality Italian RMBS ranges between 7.5%-10% for tranches rated at A2(sf), which is the highest achievable rating for Italian structured finance transactions given the A2 country ceiling for Italy. The revised MILAN CE assumptions generally reflect a multiple of 3 times the revised EL assumptions (Minimum Expected Loss Multiple), but Moody's has used a 2 to 3 multiple for seasoned transactions with good performance.

-- DRIVERS FOR REVIEW PLACEMENT: ASSESSMENT OF COUNTRY RISK EXPOSURE AND LINKAGE TO COUNTERPARTIES

All ratings downgraded today remain on review for downgrade pending the reassessment of the impact of country credit deterioration on structured finance transactions and, in some cases, exposure to counterparties (i.e., servicer, account banks, swap counterparties and originators). In addition, 50 tranches in 32 Italian RMBS transactions that were not affected by today's rating actions have ratings that remain under review for the same reasons as those listed above.

-- OUTLOOK FOR ITALIAN RMBS

Moody's outlook for Italian RMBS collateral is negative. Moody's expects a contracting Italian economy and an annual average unemployment rate of 10.5% in 2012, increasing by a further 0.5% in 2013 (see "Update to the Global Macro-Risk Outlook 2012-14: Slow Adjustment to Weigh on Growth", 12 November 2012).

Moody's expects that Italian house prices will continue to decline in 2013 (see "European ABS and RMBS Outlooks: June 2012 Update", June 2012), increasing losses on foreclosed properties (see "Sharp Fall in Residential Housing Transactions Credit Negative for Italian Residential Mortgage Loans", 18 July 2012)

-- OTHER DEVELOPMENTS MAY NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE NOTES

As the euro area crisis continues, the ratings of structured finance notes remain exposed to the uncertainties of credit conditions in the general economy. The deteriorating creditworthiness of euro area sovereigns as well as the weakening credit profile of the global banking sector could negatively affect the ratings of the notes.

On 21 August 2012, Moody's released a request for comment seeking market feedback on proposed adjustments to its modelling assumptions. These adjustments are designed to account for the impact of rapid and significant country credit deterioration on structured finance transactions. If the adjusted approach is implemented as proposed, the rating of the notes affected by today rating action may be negatively affected. See "Approach to Assessing the Impact of a Rapid Country Credit Deterioration on Structured Finance Transactions", (21 August 2012) for further details regarding the implications of the proposed methodology changes on Moody's ratings.

Additional factors that may affect the resolution of these reviews are described in request for comments titled "The temporary Use of Cash in Structured Finance Transactions: Eligible Investment and Bank Guidelines" and "Approach to Assessing Linkage to Swap Counterparties in Structured Finance Cashflow Transactions", which were both published on 2 July 2012.

Italy's new country ceiling, as per 13 July 2012 press release, reflects Moody's assessment that the risk of economic and financial instability in the country has increased. The weakness of the economy and the increased vulnerability to a sudden cessation in funding for the sovereign constitute a substantial risk factor to other (non-government) issuers in Italy, as income and access to liquidity and funding could be sharply curtailed for all classes of borrowers. Further deterioration in the financial sector cannot be excluded, which could lead to potentially severe systemic economic disruption and reduced access to credit. Finally, the country ceiling reflects the risk of exit and redenomination in the unlikely event of a default by the sovereign. If the Italian government's rating were to fall further from its current Baa2 level, the country ceiling would be reassessed and likely lowered at that time.

Key modelling assumptions, such as expected loss and MILAN CE assumptions have been updated. Potential sensitivities, cash-flow analysis and stress scenarios for the affected transactions have not been updated, as the rating actions have been primarily driven by (1) the update of the key assumptions; and, as a consequence, (2) Moody's decision to assess credit enhancement levels consistent with each structured finance rating category.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS in Europe, Middle East, and Africa" published in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Other Factors used in these ratings are described in "Local-Currency Country Risk Ceiling for Bonds and Other Local Currency Obligations", published in August 2012.

The rating considerations described in this press release complement the principal rating methodologies applicable to each of the Italian RMBS transactions affected by today's rating action.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entities or their designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Information sources used to prepare each of the ratings are the following: parties involved in the ratings,public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of these transactions in the past six months.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of issuing these ratings.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entities or their related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

In addition to the information provided below please find on the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com, for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the lead rating analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued each of the ratings.

The person who approved Capital Mortgage S.r.l. (BIPCA Cordusio RMBS), Capital Mortgage S.r.l. (Capital Mortgages Series 2007-1), Cordusio RMBS Securitisation S.r.l. - Series 2007, and F-E Mortgages S.r.l. 2005 credit ratings is Poulain-Thomas, Annick, MD - Structured Finance, Structured Finance Group, Journalists +44 20 7772 5456, Subscribers +44 20 7772 5454.

The person who approved BP Mortgages S.r.l., Intesa Sec. 3 S.r.l., and VELA HOME S.r.l. - Series 4, credit ratings is Weil, Ariel, Vice President - Senior Analyst, Structured Finance Group, Journalists +44 20 7772 5456, Subscribers +44 20 7772 5454.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Marcello Vicarelli
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Annick Poulain
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
Moody's France SAS
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Ariel Weil
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's France SAS
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's review of Italian RMBS sector triggers rating actions on 7 transactions

No Related Data.
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Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,000 to approximately $2,700,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS’s ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance — Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). This document is intended to be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.

Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’s Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY250,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

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