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Rating Action:

Moody's reviews 7 south and south east Asian energy companies for downgrade

22 Jan 2016

On January 26, 2016, the press release was corrected as follows: In the debt list, for issuer PTT Exploration & Production Public Co. Ltd., the second item was changed to "Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture". Revised release follows.

Singapore, January 22, 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) placed the ratings of seven south and south east Asian exploration and production (E&P) and integrated oil companies on review for downgrade. A list of the companies and rating actions appears below.

Oil prices have deteriorated substantially in the past few weeks and have reached nominal price lows not seen in more than a decade. Moody's has adjusted its view downward for the likely range of prices. We see a substantial risk that prices may recover much more slowly over the medium term than many companies expect, as well as a risk that prices might fall further. Even under a scenario with a modest recovery from current prices, producing companies and the drillers and service companies that support them will experience rising financial stress with much lower cash flows.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Today's review for downgrade considers that much weaker industry fundamentals have potential to warrant rating changes for all companies covered in this press release. While this review focuses on companies rated in the range from A1 to B3, Moody's is also reevaluating higher and lower rated companies in the context of industry conditions. The higher rated companies on average are somewhat more resilient to low oil prices and Moody's has recently downgraded many of the lower rated companies.

As part of its ongoing assessment of energy markets, Moody's sharply reduced its oil price assumptions on January 21 in light of continuing oversupply in the global oil markets and demand growth that remains tepid. Iran is poised to add more than 500,000 barrels per day to global supply while OPEC and many non-OPEC oil producers continue to produce without restraint as they battle for market share. The addition of Iranian oil to the market this year will offset or exceed expected declines in US production of about 500,000 barrels per day. Increased production vastly exceeds growth in oil consumption, given modest growth in consumption from major consumers such as China, India and the US. Production now exceeds demand by about 2 million barrels per day, adding to already high global oil stocks. Our natural gas and natural gas liquids price assumptions are unchanged. Natural gas production in the US continues to increase while costs decline and producers generate cash returns at ever-lower prices, although in many cases these appear insufficient to service their debt.

Lower oil prices will further weaken cash flows for E&P companies and the upstream portion of integrated oil and gas companies. This will cause further deterioration in financial ratios, including deeper negative free cash flow. Most companies are unable to internally fund sustaining levels of capital spending at current market prices. Current industry conditions also reduce the value of assets offered for sale and have made accessing capital markets more expensive for some companies and unavailable for others. While integrated oil and gas companies benefit from the profitability of their downstream operations, the upstream operations represent a much larger part of the capital employed and cash flow for most of these companies.

Although all issuers in these sectors have been adversely affected by declining prices, severity varies substantially by issuer. Accordingly, the range of possible outcomes upon conclusion of the review for given issuers varies from possible confirmation of ratings to multi-notch downgrades. Baseline credit assessments of government related issuers (GRI) may also experience multi notch downgrades but the impact on the final ratings may be partly mitigated by expectation of extraordinary support from their respective governments. Moody's expects to conclude a majority of the reviews by the end of the first quarter.

The principal methodologies used in rating Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. and Oil India Limited were Global Independent Exploration and Production Industry published in December 2011, and Government-Related Issuers published in October 2014. The principal methodologies used in rating P.T. Pertamina (Persero), Petroliam Nasional Berhad, and PTT Public Company Limited were Global Integrated Oil & Gas Industry published in April 2014, and Government-Related Issuers published in October 2014. The principal methodology used in rating P.T. Energi Mega Persada Tbk and PTT Exploration & Production Public Co. Ltd. was Global Independent Exploration and Production Industry published in December 2011. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

The following ratings are placed on Review for Downgrade:

..Issuer: Energi Mega Persada Tbk (P.T.)

.Long Term Corporate Family Rating, B2, Placed on Review for Downgrade

..Issuer: Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.

.Local Currency Issuer Rating, Baa1, Placed on Review for Downgrade

.Foreign Currency Issuer Rating, Baa2, Placed on Review for Downgrade

..Issuer: ONGC Videsh Limited

.Backed Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Baa2, Placed on Review for Downgrade

..Issuer: Oil India Limited

.Issuer Rating, Baa2, Placed on Review for Downgrade

.Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Baa2, Placed on Review for Downgrade

..Issuer: Pertamina (Persero) (P.T.)

.Issuer Rating, Baa3, Placed on Review for Downgrade

.Senior Unsecured MTN, (P)Baa3, Placed on Review for Downgrade

.Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Baa3, Placed on Review for Downgrade

..Issuer: Petroliam Nasional Berhad

.Issuer Rating, A1, Placed on Review for Downgrade

. Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, A1, Placed on Review for Downgrade

..Issuer:PETRONAS Capital Limited

. Backed Senior Unsecured MTN, (P)A1, Placed on Review for Downgrade

.Backed Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, A1, Placed on Review for Downgrade

..Issuer: PETRONAS Global Sukuk Ltd.

.Backed Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, A1, Placed on Review for Downgrade

..Issuer: PTT Public Company Limited

.Issuer Rating, Baa1, Placed on Review for Downgrade

.Senior Unsecured Bank Credit Facility, Baa1, Placed on Review for Downgrade

.Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Baa1, Placed on Review for Downgrade

..Issuer: PTT Exploration & Production Public Co. Ltd.

.Issuer Rating, Baa1, Placed on Review for Downgrade

.Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Baa1, Placed on Review for Downgrade

.Subordinated Debt Rating, Baa3, Placed on Review for Downgrade

..Issuer: PTTEP Canada International Finance Limited

.Backed Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Baa1, Placed on Review for Downgrade

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

The below contact information is provided for information purposes only. Please see the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com, for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the lead analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued the ratings.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Vikas Halan
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Laura Acres
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: (852) 3758 -1350
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Moody's reviews 7 south and south east Asian energy companies for downgrade
No Related Data.
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