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Announcement:

Moody's reviews 92 tranches in 15 National Collegiate student loan trusts

20 Nov 2012
NOTE: On November 27, 2012 the press release was revised as follows: Removed references to the National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-3 Cl.-A-IO note and the National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-4 Cl.-A-IO note. Revised release follows.

Approximately $10 billion of asset-backed securities affected

New York, November 20, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service placed under review for downgrade the ratings of 90 tranches and placed under review for upgrade the ratings of two tranches in 15 National Collegiate student loan trusts backed by private (i.e. not government guaranteed) student loans. U.S. Bank, N.A. is the special servicer and Goal Structured Solutions, a wholly owned subsidiary of Goal Financial, LLC, is the administrator of all trusts.

The primary reason for the reviews for downgrade is performance deterioration of the underlying student loan collateral. Delinquencies and defaults on the loans originated through both school financial aid offices and the direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel that entered repayment after 2006 have been increasing. Cumulative defaults during the first year of repayment on the pools of loans that entered repayment in 2007 or later are almost twice as high as cumulative defaults on the pools of loans that entered repayment in 2006 or earlier. The negative performance of the post-2006 repayment vintages affects primarily 2006 and 2007 securitizations, which include a large percentage of the post-2006 vintage loans. The 90+ delinquencies as a percentage of loans in active repayment (i.e. not in school, grace, deferment or forbearance) in the 2006 and 2007 securitizations is approximately 3%, a whole percent higher than the 90+ delinquencies in the pre-2006 securitizations. Similarly, monthly defaults as a percentage of loans in active repayment for 2006 and 2007 securitizations have been above 0.75%, while monthly defaults in the pre-2006 securitizations have ranged between 0.25% and 0.5%.

The reviews for downgrade were also prompted by correction of the static pool default information that the transaction sponsor, First Marblehead Corporation, provided to Moody's. The information that served as a basis for the May 2011 rating actions did not include defaults on rehabilitated loans. The most recent information correctly included rehabilitated loans and indicated substantially higher cumulative defaults. Rehabilitated loans are loans that have defaulted but subsequently returned to repayment and repurchased by the trusts.

Finally, several tranches rated A3 and above were placed on review for downgrade because Moody's is re-evaluating its view on the tranches' senior position in the distribution of cash. Currently, principal payments are made sequentially among all Class A notes. However, upon an event of default the principal distribution among the Class A notes will switch to pro-rata.

Moody's placed two classes of notes in the Master Trust on review for possible upgrade due to the substantial pay down of the notes and the resulting increase in credit enhancement supporting them.

The principal methodology used in National Collegiate Student Loan Trust rating actions was "Moody's Approach to Rating U.S. Private Student Loan-Backed Securities", published on 6 January 2010 and available at www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issue can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website. In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.

The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued. Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but not exclusively, the performance metrics.

RATINGS

Complete actions are as follows:

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2003-1 (The)

Cl. A-7, Caa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Caa1 (sf)

Cl. IO, Caa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Caa1 (sf)

Cl. B-1, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Cl. B-2, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2004-1

Cl. A-2, A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A3 (sf)

Cl. A-3, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)

Cl. A-4, Caa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Caa3 (sf)

Cl. A-IO-2, Caa3 (sf) Remains On Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Sep 30, 2010 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf) and Remained On Review for Possible Downgrade

Cl. B-1, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Cl. B-2, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Issuer: The National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2004-2

Cl. A-3, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 11, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)

Cl. A-4, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A1 (sf)

Cl. A-5-1, Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa2 (sf)

Cl. A-IO, Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa2 (sf)

Cl. B, Caa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)

Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2005-1

Cl. A-3, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 11, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)

Cl. A-4, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A1 (sf)

Cl. A-5-1, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)

Cl. A-5-2, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)

Cl. B, Caa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)

Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2005-2

Cl. A-3, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Aa1 (sf)

Cl. A-4, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa1 (sf)

Cl. A-5, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)

Cl. B, Caa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)

Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Cl. A-5-2, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2005-3

Cl. A-3, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 11, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)

Cl. A-4, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A1 (sf)

Cl. A-5-1, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)

Cl. A-5-2, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)

Cl. B, Caa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)

Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-1

Cl. A-3, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 11, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)

Cl. A-4, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa1 (sf)

Cl. A-5, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)

Cl. B, Caa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)

Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-2

Cl. A-2, Aa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Aa3 (sf)

Cl. A-3, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa1 (sf)

Cl. A-4, B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at B1 (sf)

Cl. B, Caa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)

Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-3

Cl. A-2, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 11, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)

Cl. A-3, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 11, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)

Cl. A-4, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa1 (sf)

Cl. A-5, Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa2 (sf)

Cl. B, Ba2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba2 (sf)

Cl. C, Caa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)

Cl. D, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-4

Cl. A-2, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A1 (sf)

Cl. A-3, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa1 (sf)

Cl. A-4, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)

Cl. B, B2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at B2 (sf)

Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)

Cl. D, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-1

Cl. A-2, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A1 (sf)

Cl. A-3, Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa3 (sf)

Cl. A-4, B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at B1 (sf)

Cl. B, B2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at B2 (sf)

Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)

Cl. D, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-2

Cl. A-2, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A1 (sf)

Cl. A-3, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa1 (sf)

Cl. A-4, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)

Cl. B, B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at B1 (sf)

Cl. C, Caa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)

Cl. D, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-3

Cl. A-3-L, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Cl. A-3-AR-2, Caa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)

Cl. A-3-AR-3, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Cl. A-3-AR-4, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Cl. A-3-AR-5, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Cl. A-3-AR-6, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Cl. A-3-AR-7, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-4

Cl. A-3-L, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Cl. A-3-AR-2, Caa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)

Cl. A-3-AR-3, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Cl. A-3-AR-4, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Cl. A-3-AR-5, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Cl. A-3-AR-6, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Cl. A-3-AR-7, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)

Issuer: The National Collegiate Master Student Loan Trust I (2001 Indenture)

NCT-2002-AR9, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)

NCT-2002-AR-10, Ba2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba2 (sf)

NCT-2003AR-12, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Apr 8, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)

NCT-2003AR-13, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Apr 8, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)

NCT-2003AR-14, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Apr 8, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)

NCT-2005AR-15, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Apr 8, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)

NCT-2005AR-16, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Apr 8, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

JingJing Dang
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Irina Faynzilberg
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's reviews 92 tranches in 15 National Collegiate student loan trusts
No Related Data.
© 2019 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation (“MCO”), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,000 to approximately $2,700,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS’s ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading “Investor Relations — Corporate Governance — Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy.”

Additional terms for Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY’S affiliate, Moody’s Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657AFSL 336969 and/or Moody’s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN 94 105 136 972 AFSL 383569 (as applicable). This document is intended to be provided only to “wholesale clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY’S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a “wholesale client” and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. MOODY’S credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors.

Additional terms for Japan only: Moody's Japan K.K. (“MJKK”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody’s Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody’s SF Japan K.K. (“MSFJ”) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (“NRSRO”). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively.

MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for ratings opinions and services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY125,000 to approximately JPY250,000,000.

MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

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