Milan, January 08, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed on review for downgrade Cassa
di Risparmio di Cesena SpA's (CR Cesena) Ba3 long-term debt
and deposit ratings and D- standalone bank financial strength rating
(BFSR), equivalent to a ba3 standalone credit assessment.
CR Cesena's Not-Prime short-term deposit rating is unaffected
by these rating announcements.
Today's decision to review the ratings for downgrade reflects Moody's
concern that CR Cesena's asset quality and core profitability are weak
in the context of the increasingly challenging operating environment in
Italy. Moody's review will therefore focus on the bank's
profitability and asset-quality evolution and its ability to build
sufficient loan-loss provisions against increasing non-performing
assets.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Moody's views CR Cesena's core profitability as weak.
In its latest publicly available accounts, the bank reported a net
income of EUR13.5 million 1) at year-end 2011. Profitability
is likely to have benefited in 2012 from the carry trade on Italian government
bonds. Outside of this supportive element, Moody's
is concerned that the bank's core profitability and ability to generate
capital is under significant pressure from (i) the ongoing asset quality
deterioration and (ii) the corresponding increase in non-earning
assets and (iii) required increases in loan loss provisions, as
well as by expected higher funding costs. In this context,
Moody's is concerned about the weakening coverage of non-performing
loans which has been declining in recent years.
CR Cesena's asset quality is weak, with problem loans as a percentage
of gross loans at 9.4% 2), as of December 2011.
Moody's understands that in November 2012, CR Cesena approved
a reserve conversion of EUR26.6 million, with Tier 1 increasing
to 8.17% from 7.56%. Whilst the rating
agency considers this to be credit positive, it believes that this
capital level might not provide a sufficient buffer against rising problem
loans, as expected in the weak Italian economy. Moody's
notes the increasingly challenging operating environment in Italy.
Macroeconomic data and the outlook for Italy have been revised downwards
since Q2 2012. Unemployment increased to 11.1% in
October 2012 from 10.4% in May 2012 (according to ISTAT,
the Italian institute for statistics). According to Moody's most
recent forecast from November 2012, Italian GDP is expected to fall
between 2.0% and 3.0% in 2012 (instead of
a 1%-2% decline forecast in April 2012), and
between 1% and 0.0% in 2013 (rather than -0.5%
to +0.5% forecast in April 2012).
This issuer did not participate in the credit rating process. The
Rating Committee was not provided, for purposes of the rating,
access to the books, records and other relevant internal documents
of the related entity or related third party.
1) Unless otherwise noted, the data sources are Moody's Financial
Metrics or Company data.
2) Problem loans include: non-performing loans (sofferenze),
watchlist (incagli - including only those 90+ days overdue),
restructured (ristrutturati) and past due loans (scaduti).
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING UP/DOWN
As indicated by the review for downgrade, upwards pressure is currently
limited. Downwards pressure on the standalone BFSR could result
from (1) inability to strengthen its core earnings from customer operations
and not based on lower loan loss provisions or carry trade; (2) insufficient
capital levels to withstand the likely further asset quality deterioration
and an anemic internal capital generation capacity. A lower standalone
BFSR would lead to a downgrade of the bank's long-term deposit
and debt ratings.
LIST OF AFFECTED CREDIT RATINGS
All of the following ratings are on review for on downgrade.
-- Bank deposit ratings Ba3
-- BFSR of D-
-- Standalone credit assessment of ba3
-- Adjusted standalone credit assessment of ba3
-- Senior unsecured local currency ratings of Ba3
-- Subordinate local currency of B1
-- Senior Unsecured MTN local currency of (P)Ba3
-- Subordinate MTN local currency of (P)B1
-- Junior Subordinate MTN local currency of (P)B2
-- Tier III MTN local currency of (P)B1
METHODOLOGY USED
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Consolidated
Global Bank Rating Methodology" published in June 2012. Please
see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy
of this methodology.
Cassa di Risparmio di Cesena SpA is headquartered in Cesena, Italy.
As of December 2011, it had total assets of EUR5.1 billion.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
This rated entity or its agent(s) did not participate in the rating process.
Moody's was not provided, for purposes of the rating,
access to the books, records and other relevant internal documents
of the rated entity.
The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s)
and issued with/with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
Information source used to prepare the rating is the following:
public information.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated
entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing
this review.
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the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has
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Christina Sterr
Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Italia S.r.l
Corso di Porta Romana 68
Milan 20122
Italy
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100
Johannes Wassenberg
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
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Moody's reviews Cassa di Risparmio di Cesena's ratings for downgrade