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Rating Action:

Moody's reviews and upgrades senior notes issued by National Collegiate Student Loan Trust Securitizations

25 Mar 2014

New York, March 25, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded the ratings of five senior classes of notes leaving them under review for further upgrades, and placed under review for upgrade 17 senior classes of notes issued by 14 National Collegiate Student Loan Trust Securitizations. The underlying collateral consists of private student loans that are not guaranteed or reinsured under either the Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP) or any other federal student loan program. The loans are primarily serviced by the Pennsylvania Higher Education Assistance Agency (PHEAA) with U.S. Bank, N.A. acting as the special servicer. Goal Structured Solutions, Inc. is the administrator for all securitizations.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The primary rationale for the actions is the continued build-up in credit enhancement supporting the affected notes as a results of the substantial pay down of the notes in a sequential-pay structure. Although the ratios of total assets to total liabilities have declined to a range of 69%-86% as of January 2014 from a range of 76%-87% as of January 2013, the top-pay senior classes have benefitted from rapid deleveraging. Subordination and overcollateralization supporting the affected classes of notes increased to a range of 33%-93% as of January 2014 from a range of 32%-88% as of January 2013.

During the review period, Moody's will project lifetime defaults and net losses on the underlying student loan pools and conduct a detailed cash flow analysis to assess whether the available credit enhancement is sufficient to upgrade the current ratings of the affected classes of notes.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach to Rating U.S. Private Student Loan-Backed Securities" published in January 2010. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued. Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but not exclusively, the performance metrics.

Complete rating actions are as follows:

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2004-1

Cl. A-2, Upgraded to A1 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Confirmed at A3 (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2004-2

Cl. A-4, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Confirmed at A1 (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2005-1

Cl. A-4, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Confirmed at A1 (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2005-2

Cl. A-3, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to A1 (sf)

Cl. A-4, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2005-3

Cl. A-3, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to A1 (sf)

Cl. A-4, A2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to A2 (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-1

Cl. A-3, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to A1 (sf)

Cl. A-4, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-2

Cl. A-2, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to A1 (sf)

Cl. A-3, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-3

Cl. A-4, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)

Cl. A-3, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to A1 (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-4

Cl. A-2, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Confirmed at A1 (sf)

Cl. A-3, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-1

Cl. A-2, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Confirmed at A1 (sf)

Cl. A-3, Ba2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to Ba2 (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-2

Cl. A-2, A2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to A2 (sf)

Cl. A-3, Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Downgraded to Baa3 (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-3

Cl. A-2-AR-4, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Upgraded to Baa1 (sf)

Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-4

Cl. A-2-AR-4, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Upgraded to Baa1 (sf)

Issuer: The National Collegiate Master Student Loan Trust I (2001 Indenture)

NCT-2003AR-11, B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 3, 2013 Upgraded to B1 (sf)

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating:

Up

Among the factors that could drive the rating up are a decline in basis risk and lower net losses on the underlying assets than Moody's expects.

Down

Among the factors that could drive the rating down are an increase in basis risk and higher net losses on the underlying assets than Moody's expects.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of these transactions in the past six months.

Moody's did not use any models, or loss or cash flow analysis, in its analysis.

Moody's did not use any stress scenario simulations in its analysis.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Jinwen Chen
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Irina Faynzilberg
VP - Sr Credit Officer/Manager
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's reviews and upgrades senior notes issued by National Collegiate Student Loan Trust Securitizations
No Related Data.
© 2019 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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