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Announcement:

Moody's reviews for downgrade Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena's ratings

02 Feb 2012

MPS Capital Services also on review

Milan, February 02, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed on review for downgrade the Baa1/Prime-2 senior debt and deposit ratings as well as the D+ standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR, mapping to Baa3 on the long-term rating scale) of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS).

The review for downgrade of the ratings of various subordinated debt instruments of MPS, initiated on 7 November 2011, has been extended.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Moody's says that the key drivers for today's BFSR review are:

i) the uncertainty in the bank's plan to meet its regulatory capital shortfall calculated by the European Banking Authority (EBA). Moody's notes that the bank's plan to raise the EUR3.3 billion mandated by EBA to reach the 9% Core Tier 1 capital ratio includes joint ventures and disposals, which may be challenging to implement in the current environment and which carry some execution risk;

ii) MPS' weak internal capital generation capacity, which would allow it to meet such increased capital requirements or to absorb external shocks from its own earnings. This weak organic capital generation capacity is becoming more prevalent as we expect pressure on asset quality and earnings to increase for MPS as a result of the overall challenging macroeconomic outlook in Italy, thus increasing the possibility that MPS may require capital support from third parties.

Based on unchanged support assumptions by the Italian government, the debt and deposit ratings of MPS have also been placed on review for downgrade as they would most likely also be affected negatively in case that MPS' standalone rating should be downgraded.

FOCUS OF THE REVIEW

Moody's says that the review will focus primarily on i) the short-term measures that can be taken to improve the group's capital levels to meet any EBA capital requirements, as well as ii) management's strategy to significantly enhance its operational flexibility and earnings generation capacity in view of the limitations of asset sales/disposals or deleveraging as an ongoing source of capital generation.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN

As the ratings of MPS have been placed on review for downgrade, there is a significant possibility that the ratings of MPS may deteriorate. Please refer to the rationale above which explains key downward rating drivers.

On the positive side, MPS's ratings could be confirmed if the bank demonstrates that it can achieve a further significant strengthening in its financial profile, including (i) removing any uncertainty that it can achieve its required capitalisation levels, together with (ii) significantly higher profitability (using metrics such as Pre-Provision and Net Income as a percentage of total or risk weighted assets, or return on assets and return on equity); (iii) an improvement in its cost-to-income ratio below 65% and evidence that MPS can more flexibly adapt its cost base to fluctuating earnings; (iii) demonstrating resilient asset quality levels.

LIST OF RATING ACTIONS

The ratings of the following entities were also placed on review for possible downgrade as a result of the action on their parent:

- MPS Capital Services

- Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, London

- MPS Capital Trust I

- Monte Paschi Ireland Limited

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, affected ratings:

- Bank Financial Strength Rating: D+

- Long Term Bank Deposits: Baa1

- Senior Unsecured: Baa1

- Senior Unsecured MTN: (P)Baa1

- Short Term: P-2

- Other Short Term: (P)P-2

- Preferred stock: (P)Ba3

MPS Capital Services, affected ratings:

- Bank Financial Strength Rating: D+

- Long Term Bank Deposits: Baa2

- Short Term: P-2

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, London, affected ratings:

- Short Term Deposit Note/CD Program: P-2

MPS Capital Trust I, affected ratings:

- Backed Preferred Stock non-cumulative: Ba3

Monte Paschi Ireland Limited, affected ratings:

- Backed Senior Unsecured: Baa1

- Backed Senior Unsecured MTN: (P)Baa1

The methodologies used in this rating were Bank Financial Strength Ratings: Global Methodology published in February 2007, Incorporation of Joint-Default Analysis into Moody's Bank Ratings: A Refined Methodology published in March 2007, and and Moody's Guidelines for Rating Bank Hybrid Securities and Subordinated Debt published in November 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for copies of these methodologies.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, and public information.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing this review.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.

Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Carlo Gori
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Italia S.r.l
Corso di Porta Romana 68
Milan 20122
Italy
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100

Johannes Wassenberg
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Italia S.r.l
Corso di Porta Romana 68
Milan 20122
Italy
Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100

Moody's reviews for downgrade Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena's ratings
No Related Data.
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