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Announcement:

Moody's reviews some Irish RMBS ratings

14 Oct 2010

Approximately EUR 9.7 billion of debt securities affected

London, 14 October 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service has today placed on review for possible downgrade ratings on 7 Irish residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). A complete list of all 15 affected tranches placed on review for downgrade can be found at the end of this press release.

This rating review follows Moody's decision on 5 October 2010 to place the Aa2 government bond rating on review for possible downgrade as well as the ratings of some of the Irish banks on October 6. The sovereign rating action was prompted by the crystallisation of additional bank contingent liabilities, the increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and the government's elevated borrowing costs.

Ratings of senior and junior notes in 9 additional Irish RMBS are already under review for possible downgrade since last July. The completion of Moody's rating review of the Irish RMBS will be driven by the conclusion of the ongoing review of Ireland's sovereign and bank ratings as well as Moody's revised assumptions on future performance of RMBS portfolios in the context of greater uncertainty of the economic outlook in Ireland.

High Ratings Can be Maintained in Structures Designed for Severe Stress Scenarios

Moody's rates transactions to the highest rating levels only if their structural features, including credit enhancement, mitigants to operational risk, and liquidity support, are sufficient to withstand extreme scenarios. Irish RMBS could still maintain ratings in the Aaa and Aa categories if the transactions can survive stresses to collateral performance and counterparty downgrades.

Credit Enhancement Stress Scenarios

In placing on review senior ratings of some Irish RMBS, Moody's considered the likely performance of the transactions in the context of high stress scenarios that assume various combinations such as a possible restructuring of the government's debt, a banking system crisis, and a more severe version of the required austerity measures. Moody's will ultimately determine a probability for these extreme scenarios in line with the outcome of the Irish government and bank rating reviews. Irish Prime RMBS that have credit enhancement levels above 20-25% have not been placed on review, as Moody's believes that the expected performance of these pools under such stressed scenarios is consistent with a Aaa rating. Additionally some Aaa notes have not been placed on review for downgrade in consideration of their short remaining life.

Revision of Expected Losses

Moody's will review lifetime loss expectation for some Irish RMBS to reflect the collateral performance to date as well as its negative outlook for the Irish housing market. Moody's updates of expected loss on the pools will also impact the mezzanine and junior note ratings of Irish RMBS. The current expected loss assumption for prime pools average 1.5% of original balance -- but with disparities amongst transactions. Moody's noted that performance measured in late delinquency buckets continues to deteriorate in many Irish transactions: as of August 2010, 4.8% of Prime Irish RMBS portfolios were more than 90 days delinquent versus 4.1% as of last May. Moody's will publish Irish RMBS Index information later this week. The total peak-to-through decline in housing prices is anticipated to be 45%, thereby leaving housing prices back at 2001 levels. Most Irish RMBS pools have a significant portion of loans currently in negative equity.

Operational Risk and Liquidity

Given the ongoing review for possible downgrade of the Irish banks' senior debt ratings, Moody's will also consider the impact of bank downgrades on a transaction for which one of those banks is a key party. Risk of a payment disruption on RMBS may arise if a key party fails to perform its role, including servicing, cash management, or acting as hedge counterparty or liquidity provider to the transaction. Our review will include an assessment of the structural features that mitigate the exposure to these banks.

LIST OF RATING ACTIONS

Issuer: Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation No.12 Ltd.

....EUR1010.685M A3 Notes, Aa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Aug 12, 2010 Downgraded to Aa2 (sf)

Issuer: Celtic Residential Irish Mortgage Securitisation No. 13 Ltd

....EUR538.95M A2 Certificate, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 18, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

Issuer: Emerald Mortgages No.5 Limited

....EUR2375M A Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 20, 2008 Assigned Aaa (sf)

....EUR125M B Notes, Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on May 27, 2010 Downgraded to Baa3 (sf)

Issuer: Fastnet Securities 2 PLC

....EUR1656M A2 Certificate, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jul 5, 2006 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

....EUR50M B Certificate, Aa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jul 5, 2006 Definitive Rating Assigned Aa3 (sf)

....EUR44M C Certificate, A2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 30, 2010 Confirmed at A2 (sf)

....EUR56M D Certificate, Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 30, 2010 Confirmed at Baa2 (sf)

Issuer: Kildare Securities limited

....US$1451.6M A2 Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 1, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

....EUR1062M A3 Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 1, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

....EUR96.8M B Notes, Aa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 1, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aa3 (sf)

....EUR90.6M C Notes, Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Sep 18, 2009 Downgraded to Baa2 (sf)

....EUR26.55M D Notes, Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Sep 18, 2009 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)

Issuer: Phoenix Funding 3 Limited

....EUR3040M A Notes, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Sep 1, 2010 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)

Issuer: Phoenix Funding 4 Limited

....EUR748M A Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Aug 5, 2009 Assigned Aaa (sf)

All principal methodologies that Moody's applies when rating structured finance transactions are available on www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating these transactions can also be found in this Rating Methodologies sub-directory. In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck. For further information, please visit our website directly or contact Moody's Client Service Desk (+44 20) 7772 5454.

London
Carole Bernard
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Paris
Annick Poulain
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
Moody's France SAS
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom

Moody's reviews some Irish RMBS ratings
No Related Data.
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MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.

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