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Rating Action:

Moody's revises Meituan's outlook to negative, affirms Baa3 ratings

 The document has been translated in other languages

01 Apr 2021

Hong Kong, April 01, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Meituan's Baa3 issuer rating and senior unsecured rating.

At the same time, Moody's revised the rating outlook to negative from stable.

"The negative outlook reflects faster-than-expected growth in Meituan's community e-commerce segment, which will dampen earnings, raise leverage and generate negative free cash flow over the next 12 to 18 months. Both investments and operating losses from this segment exceeded our prior expectations in 4Q 2020, and are likely to remain elevated in the coming quarters," says Ying Wang, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.

On 26 March, Meituan announced its 2020 operating results and business outlook for 2021, which indicate a steadily improving performance in its core operations of food delivery and in-store, hotel and travel services. However, the company incurred higher-than-expected operating losses in its community e-commerce segment. Management indicated that ongoing heavy investments will be required to grow its new businesses, which will weigh on its operating performance before they contribute to earnings.

"The rating affirmation reflects our expectation that Meituan's weaker-than-expected credit metrics for 2020 and likely worsening of its financial profile over the next 12-18 months will gradually recover to levels appropriate for its Baa3 ratings in 2022. Solid cash flow from its food delivery and in-store, hotel and travel segments, and the presence of Tencent Holdings Limited (A1 stable) as its strategic shareholder will help in the recovery," adds Wang.

"We also expect Meituan's management to remain committed to an investment-grade profile as indicated by maintaining a solid net cash position, and making use of non-debt funding to support its large investment plan," adds Wang.

Moody's expects the company's new investment initiative, mainly community e-commerce, could strengthen its goods and services offering, as well as competitive edge. It also has a track record of growing new businesses from an early stage and incubate long-term growth drivers.

RATING RATIONALE

Meituan's Baa3 ratings reflect the company's leading market positions in China's food delivery, in-store, hotel and travel services, and its ability to leverage its established food delivery business to cross sell high-margin hotel booking and in-store services.

At the same time, the ratings are constrained by the intense competition in Meituan's key business segments, particularly in the low-margin food delivery industry, as well as investment and execution risks associated with the company's new business initiatives. The ratings also consider Meituan's short track record of profitable operations.

Meituan's ratings also consider its operational synergy with Tencent, which had an 18.0% equity stake in Meituan as of 30 June 2020. Meituan's large and growing platform forms an integral part of Tencent's consumer services ecosystem. The synergy is indicated by user traffic from Weixin and QQ apps, and access to lower-cost technology infrastructure and digital payment solutions provided by Tencent. The operational support will help reduce costs as Meituan continues to expand into low-tier cities and broaden its community e-commerce services.

In 2020, Meituan's total revenue increased 18% to RMB114.8 billion. By segment, sales from its food delivery, and new initiatives such as community e-commerce and bike-sharing, increased 21% and 34%, respectively. Revenue from its in-store, hotel and travel services declined 4.6% in 2020, as travel restrictions during the pandemic hurt volumes in the first half of 2020. Sales have since gradually recovered from the second half of the year.

Solid revenue and earnings growth from food delivery and in-store, hotel and travel services segments are better than Moody's earlier expectations. Moody's believes these are driven by high user stickiness on Meituan's platform, which has allowed the company to recover swiftly from the pandemic.

The company's number of transacting users increased 13% to 510.6 million in 2020, while the number of active merchants on its platforms rose 10% to 6.8 million for the same period.

Moody's expects Meituan's total revenue growth to remain robust, at close to 80% in 2021, driven by continued growth in the user base, rising monetization rates and its strong ability to cross sell on its integrated service platform. These factors will continue to support Meituan's Baa3 ratings.

Meituan's adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 3.3% in 2020 from 7.5% in 2019, primarily because the faster-than-expected expansion in the loss-making community e-commerce business offset earnings growth in the food delivery and travel service segments.

While Moody's expects Meituan to continue investing in new businesses and services, the operating loss from community e-commerce services and ongoing investment requirements will severely cut the company's consolidated cash flow in the next 12-18 months, and in turn, raise its leverage.

Moody's estimates Meituan's leverage, as measured by adjusted debt/EBITDA, was 6.4x as of 31 December 2020, which was worse than the 5.0x Moody's originally expected. Moody's expects 2021 to be a heavy investment year, and operating losses from the community e-commerce segment will more than offset solid EBITDA growth from the food delivery and travel service segments.

Moody's expects the company's earnings and leverage to improve in 2022, when the community e-commerce business gains scale and narrow losses. Over the next 12-18 months, Meituan's earnings and leverage trajectory will remain weak for its Baa3 ratings.

Meituan's liquidity remains excellent. Its RMB61 billion of cash and short-term investments as of 31 December 2020, together with its likely operating cash flow, will be more than sufficient to cover its short-term debt of RMB6.4 billion and planned capital spending needs.

Meituan has a track record of access to debt and equity financing as needed. Moody's expects the company to continue funding its investment requirements with a balanced approach.

Meituan's ratings take into consideration the following environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.

In terms of social risk, Moody's has considered operational and financial risks due to noncompliance with regulations relating to food and staff safety with regards to the company's delivery team. This risk is partially tempered by the presence of internal controls and the company's track record of regulatory compliance.

In terms of governance risk, Moody's has considered the high concentration of ownership and voting rights in the company's co-founders. This risk is partially tempered by Meituan's status as a listed entity, and its adherence to stringent disclosure requirements. One board member is from Tencent out of a total of eight members as of 30 June 2020. The fast-changing industry landscape also leads to management's strong investment appetite. However, Meituan's solid net cash headroom and presence of experienced and professional management underpin its flexibility and ability to manage the challenges.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The outlook could return to stable if Meituan achieves its growth targets while maintaining a strong financial profile, managing the execution risks associated with its new business initiatives and intense competition.

Specifically, the outlook could return to stable if the company maintains a financial profile appropriate for its ratings while pursuing new business growth, including reducing its adjusted debt/EBITDA toward 4.0x over the next 12-18 months, and a solid net cash position after including the short-term investments as a cash-like item.

The company will also need to maintain excellent liquidity and a prudent financial policy in its investment decisions for a return to a stable outlook.

Downward rating pressure could arise if (1) the company fails to narrow losses at its new businesses and its food delivery or travel service business is substantially disrupted, weakening its revenue growth and cash flow generation for a prolonged period; (2) it deviates from its prudent financial policy and grows its user base, or business scope at the expense of its currently strong financial profile; or (3) it engages in aggressive acquisitions that strain its balance-sheet liquidity or weaken its overall risk profile.

Specifically, Moody's could downgrade the issuer rating if Meituan's adjusted debt/EBITDA fails to trend toward 4.0x or it loses its net cash position. A failure to improve its retained cash flow/debt will also indicate downgrade momentum.

Any weakening of Meituan's strategic partnership with Tencent, such as a disposal of substantial shareholding interests, would also be credit negative.

Adverse developments in China's regulatory regime that affect Meituan's operations or business model would also be credit negative.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and Consumer Service Industry published in October 2016 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1037985. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Meituan is a leading one-stop lifestyle platform for locally produced consumer products and retail services, including entertainment, dining, delivery, travel and other services. The company was founded in Beijing, China, in 2010, and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2018.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.

Moody's considers a rated entity or its agent(s) to be participating when it maintains an overall relationship with Moody's. Unless noted in the Regulatory Disclosures as a Non-Participating Entity, the rated entity is participating and the rated entity or its agent(s) generally provides Moody's with information for the purposes of its ratings process. Please refer to www.moodys.com for the Regulatory Disclosures for each credit rating action under the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page and for details of Moody's Policy for Designating Non-Participating Rated Entities.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1243406.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

The first name below is the lead rating analyst for this Credit Rating and the last name below is the person primarily responsible for approving this Credit Rating.

Ying Wang
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Clement Cheuk Yiu Wong
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

No Related Data.
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