New York, January 13, 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service has revised The Catholic University of America's (DC) (CUA) outlook to negative from stable and affirmed its A3 issuer and revenue debt ratings. The bonds were issued through the District of Columbia. The university had $184 million of outstanding debt as of fiscal end 2021.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The revision of CUA's outlook to negative from stable is driven by persistent student market challenges causing continued declines in core net tuition revenue, with forecasts for elevated draws of unrestricted reserves over the next several years intended to augment new market enrollment growth strategies. Operating performance has deteriorated materially and is not likely to rebound significantly over the next year or two. While the university has articulated a multiyear, multi-faceted strategy intended to bolster its market position, the university has to date been unable to reverse a decade long trend of revenue stagnation and declining enrollment. Planned excess endowment spending adds risk to financial strategy. With unproven ability to achieve success with planned strategies adding uncertainty to management credibility, governance considerations are a key driver of this rating action.
The affirmation of CUA's A3 issuer rating is supported by sound financial reserves and ample liquidity, bolstered by continued donor support. These strengths provide the university some time to execute its strategies. The university's unique role within the Catholic higher education framework also provides some market distinction. Total fiscal 2021 cash and investments of $525 million cover total adjusted debt by 2.6x and expenses by 2.3x. Philanthropic activity remains an important consideration, with the fiscal 2019-21 average gift revenue of nearly $55 million, above the A-median of $21 million, a key component of CUA's capital facilities investments. Debt is moderately elevated, with weak debt affordability highlighted by falling debt service coverage due to deteriorating EBIDA.
The affirmation of the A3 ratings on the revenue bonds incorporates the general obligation characteristics of the bonds.
RATING OUTLOOK
The negative outlook reflects the potential for credit deterioration if the university's enrollment strategies are not successful or if the university is unable to adjust its expense base to align with a reduced size, resulting in ongoing weak operating performance.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OF THE RATINGS
- Significant improvement in strategic positioning, reflected by a strengthening in student demand and revenue growth
- Outsized wealth and liquidity growth at levels well above peers
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO A DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
- Inability to restore and maintain EBIDA margins above 10% beginning in fiscal 2023
- Failure to make measurable progress towards strengthening student demand to sustainably return net student revenue growth above inflationary levels
- Significant increase in debt without commensurate improvement in financial reserves and operating performance
- Significant decline in monthly days cash on hand
LEGAL SECURITY
The revenue bonds are an unsecured general obligation of the university.
The university has covenanted to maintain liquid unrestricted net assets equal to at least 80% of the outstanding principal amount of debt as part of an additional bonds test; as of April 30, 2021, the university was at 96.8%, providing modest headroom if reserves fall due to excess endowment draws or investment market volatility.
PROFILE
The Catholic University of America is a private university sponsored by the Roman Catholic Bishops of the United States. The university is located on a 176 acre campus in northeast Washington, DC. Catholic University offers undergraduate, graduate and professional degree programs. In fiscal 2021, the university recorded operating revenue of $204 million and for fall 2021 enrolled 5,439 full-time equivalent (FTE) undergraduate, graduate and professional students.
METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Higher Education Methodology published in August 2021 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBM_1257002. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
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