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Announcement:

Moody's says Korean banks likely unaffected by Kumho Asiana

31 Dec 2009

Hong Kong, December 31, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service says that its ratings for Korean banks are likely to remain unchanged despite the large exposures of some of these institutions to the troubled Kumho Asiana Group, which is now poised for restructuring.

In addition, while Moody's is aware that most banks in Korea, including those rated by Moody's, have some exposure to Kumho Asiana members, we currently have only aggregate numbers and lack a detailed breakdown of exposures by obligor and product type.

Furthermore, we can not say how much time will be required to liquidate the group's assets, or how the share-purchase program of the Korean Development Bank (KDB) -- the largest creditor -- will work.

"Although the exact details are unclear at this early stage, we believe our existing bank ratings capture the risks, for three reasons," said Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst, Youngil Choi.

First, the total exposures at most private sector banks could be written off against 2009 earnings. Those that exceed earnings, represent small proportions of capital.

Second, not all of its KRW 15.7 trillion of exposure (USD 13.6 bn) would require significant provisioning, as not all members of Kumho Asiana -- Korea's 9th largest business conglomerate or Jaebeol -- will be subject to the restructuring announced yesterday.

And third, the Korean banks could write off all of their Kumho Asiana exposures and still record lower losses than those assumed in our May 2009 downgrades of the Korean, due to the current global recession.

So far, the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) puts the credit exposures of financial institutions to Kumho Asiana at KRW15.7 trillion -- KRW10.1 trillion in loans, KRW1.2 trillion in debt securities, and KRW 4.4 trillion in other instruments.

But, the ultimate loss to Korea's banking sector could well exceed the FSS estimate on the banks' credit loss provisioning of KRW1.2 trillion, if the group's restructuring plan does not play out smoothly.

In the long term, as suggested by the FSS estimate of KRW15.7 trillion in total credit exposures, the losses -- whatever they ultimately measure -- from the Kumho Asiana restructuring are likely to adversely and significantly impact the earnings or even the capital levels of a few banks with larger exposures.

KDB has, as indicated, by far the largest exposure, followed by Export-Import Bank of Korea and Woori Bank. Moreover, KDB's financial burden could rise appreciably in view of its plan to purchase a majority share of Daewoo Engineering and Construction Co, a member of the group, at a significant premium to market prices.

However, as mentioned, Moody's does not -- at this point -- see any likely impact on the ratings of KDB or other rated Korean banks. KDB's D BFSR -- or Ba2 baseline credit assessment (BCA) -- already incorporates a certain level of financial burden from its concentrated exposures to large corporate groups overall. The bank's policy function -- as a lender to Korea's major corporates -- means that it has traditionally played a leading role in the workouts of financially troubled companies.

Rating actions in May 2009 -- in the wake of stress test applications -- cover the levels of financial burden now evident at most Korean banks. The actions, which involved 9 banks, included downgrades of BFSRs and BCAs, and changes in BFSR outlooks.

For example, Moody's lowered Woori Bank's BCA to Baa2 from A3 due to its low capital level -- when compared to other banks in the system -- and the possible emergence later on of more serious asset quality problems.

For more details of Moody's stress test assumptions, see "Moody's Approach to Estimating Korean Bank Credit Losses," September 2009.

Kumho Asiana announced a plan, which it had agreed with KDB, to restructure its group companies due to financial problems on 30 December 2009.

According to the announcement, Keumho Industrial Co and Keumho Tire Co will be subject to debt workout programs. Separately, Kumho Petrochemical Co and Asiana Airlines Inc will seek to normalize their operations on their own.

A private equity fund, led by KDB, will purchase 50% plus 1 share of Daewoo Engineering and Construction Co. The group will also try to sell some companies such as Kumho Life.

Kumho Asiana faces immediate financial problems primarily because of its obligation to pay about KRW4 trillion by mid-January 2010 to investors who partially financed the group's acquisition of Daewoo Engineering and Construction Co in 2006.

These investors include some of its creditor banks and they also have put options to force the group to buy back as much as about 39% of Daewoo Engineering and Construction Co at KRW32,510 per share, much higher than the December 30 closing of KRW12,800.

List bank ratings below:

Citibank Korea: BFSR of C-, BCA of Baa2, local currency deposit of A2, foreign currency long-term deposit of A2;

Busan Bank: BFSR of C-, BCA of Baa1, local currency deposit of A2, foreign currency long-term senior/subordinated debt of A2/A3, foreign currency long-term deposit of A2;

Daegu Bank: BFSR of C-, BCA of Baa1, local currency deposit of A2, foreign currency long-term senior/subordinated debt of A2/A3, foreign currency long-term deposit of A2;

Export-Import Bank of Korea: BCA of A3, foreign currency senior debt of A2;

Hana Bank: BFSR of C-, BCA of Baa1, local currency deposit of A1, foreign currency long-term senior/subordinated debt of A2/A2, foreign currency long-term deposit of A2;

Industrial Bank of Korea: BFSR of D+, BCA of Baa3, foreign currency long-term senior/subordinated debt of A2/A2, foreign currency long-term deposit of A2;

Jeonbuk Bank: BFSR of D+, BCA of Baa3, local currency deposit of A3, foreign currency long-term deposit of A3;

Kookmin Bank: BFSR of C-, BCA of Baa1, local currency deposit of A1, foreign currency long-term senior/subordinated debt of A2/A2, foreign currency long-term deposit of A2;

Korea Exchange Bank: BFSR of C-, BCA of Baa2, local currency deposit of A2, foreign currency long-term senior/subordinated debt of A2/A3, foreign currency long-term deposit of A2;

Korea Development Bank: BFSR of D, BCA of Ba2, local currency deposit of A1, foreign currency long-term senior debt and deposit of A2;

National Agricultural Cooperative Federation: BFSR of D+, BCA of Ba1, local currency deposit of A1, foreign currency long-term senior/subordinated debt of A2/A2, foreign currency long-term deposit of A2;

Shinhan Bank: BFSR of C-, BCA of Baa1, foreign currency long-term senior/subordinated debt of A2/A2, foreign currency long-term deposit of A2;

Standard Chartered First Bank of Korea: BFSR of D+, BCA of Baa3, local currency deposit of A2, foreign currency long-term senior/subordinated debt of A2/A3, foreign currency long-term deposit of A2;

Suhyup Bank: BFSR of D-, BCA of Ba3, local currency deposit of A2, foreign currency long-term senior/subordinated debt of A2/A3, foreign currency long-term deposit of A2;

Woori Bank: BFSR of C-, BCA of Baa2, foreign currency long-term senior/subordinated debt of A2/A2, foreign currency long-term deposit of A2;

Hong Kong
YoungIl Choi
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Asia Pacific Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: (852) 2916-1150
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077

Singapore
Beatrice Woo
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Singapore Pte Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: (852) 2916-1150
SUBSCRIBERS: (65) 6398-8308

Moody's says Korean banks likely unaffected by Kumho Asiana
No Related Data.
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