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27 Feb 2014
London, 27 February 2014 -- The gradual consolidation in the Russian banking sector seen in recent
years will accelerate from 2014-2016, bringing credit-positive
changes through the amalgamation of weaker banks into banks with greater
creditworthiness, says Moody's Investors Service in a Special
Comment published today. Furthermore, well-executed
mergers will benefit some larger private banks because their acquisitions
of smaller entities will increase their scale and geographical diversification.
In this report, Moody's focuses on (1) larger banks gaining
market share by acquiring smaller banks; (2) the slowing Russian
economy prompting banks to seek synergies through M&A; and (3)
consolidation increasing economies of scale, improving income stability,
and reducing the number of weak banks in the system.
The new report, entitled "Russian Banks: Consolidation
will strengthen the banking sector", is now available on www.moodys.com.
Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link provided
at the end of this press release.
Moody's says that Russia's largest banks have been acquiring
other banks to boost their market share. In addition, banks
with stronger credit profiles have merged with distressed banks,
a trend the ratings agency expects will continue. Small banks have
been exiting the market, some of them prompted to do so by regulatory
actions, whilst foreign banks that have had less success in building
a presence in Russia have been exiting the market to free up capital and
re-focus on their core markets.
Moody's says that a slowing Russian economy limits the potential
for organic growth in the banking sector due to rising credit costs and
declining net interest margins, prompting banks to seek synergies
and economies of scale. The rating agency forecasts real GDP growth
of 1.5-3% in Russia (Baa1 stable) for 2014-15.
At the same time, bank valuations have come down, making acquisitions
more affordable. In addition, capital-rich banks are
attractive M&A partners for banks that are capital-constrained,
as the level of capital is declining for the banking sector as a whole
while being asymetrically distributed from bank to bank.
Moody's says that the consolidation process reduces the number of
very small, fundamentally weak banks within the system, increasing
economies of scale and geographical diversification and leading to bolstered
earnings stability. Fewer weaker banks will make the sector less
vulnerable to bank runs and Moody's expects these factors to lower
the level of systemic risks for Russian banks.
The ratings agency believes that the Russian banking sector will remain
dominated by state-controlled institutions. However,
consolidation can improve the competitive position of the larger private
banks if they add scale and geographical scope through acquisitions.
Subscribers can access this report via this link: https://www.moodys.com/research/Russian-Banks-Consolidation-will-strengthen-the-banking-sector--PBC_164463
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Moody's says further bank consolidation in Russia will be credit positive for the banking system
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