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Announcement:

Moody's sees more volume and stable performance for CMBS in 2011

25 Jan 2011

New York, January 25, 2011 -- Moody's Investor Services expects higher new issuance volume and greater ratings stability for outstanding commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) in 2011 as the U.S. commercial property markets continue to rebound. In its 2011 outlook report for the sector, Moody's notes that the commercial real estate market has become trifurcated, with prices for larger trophy assets rising, prices for distressed assets declining sharply, and prices for smaller but healthy properties remaining essentially flat.

Issuance

Moody's projects $37 billion of US CMBS issuance for 2011. "The combination of borrowers seeking low interest rates and investors seeking higher yield led to a three-fold increase in issuance in 2010 over 2009, with deal size and deal diversity also increasing," says Moody's Managing Director Nick Levidy. "Based on what is already in the pipeline, we anticipate those trends to continue and accelerate in 2011."

Performance & Ratings Outlook

Increasing or stabilizing property values, higher transaction volumes, and greater liquidity for commercial real estate in 2011 will contribute to relative ratings stability for outstanding CMBS in 2011, according to Moody's.

"An increase in extensions of troubled, but performing loans will likely provide additional breathing room for owners to potentially grow their way out of their problems," says Moody's Senior Vice President, Michael Gerdes.

Moody's forecasts delinquencies of CMBS conduit and fusion loans will rise to between 9.5% and 11% in 2011, with loans in special servicing at or around the 20% level with loss severities also rising for loans liquidated over the next year.

"Our base expected loss estimates reflect this outlook as our rating actions capture a significant amount of losses that have yet to be realized," says Moody's Gerdes.

Diversity in markets and property types

Moody's expects to see continued variations from the national trends for geographic markets and property types.

"Many of the loans in areas where the pace of the recovery is lagging the rest of the country will not be able to extend, refinance or trade hands at the levels that loans in more robust markets will achieve," says Moody's Levidy. " Hotel and multifamily sector fundamentals are expected to continue the recovery that began in late 2010, while office, retail and industrial market fundamentals will start to form a bottom in 2011, with a strong rebound not expected until 2012."

U.S. CMBS: 2011 Outlook, and all of Moody's structured finance 2011 outlooks can be found at v3.moodys.com/2011sfoutlooks.

* * * * *

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information, please call one of our global press information hotlines: New York +1-212-553-0376, London +44-20-7772-5456, Tokyo +813-5408-4110, Hong Kong +852-3758-1350, Sydney +61-2-9270-8141, Mexico City 001-888-779-5833, São Paulo 0800-891-2518, or Buenos Aires 0800-666-3506. You can also email us at mediarelations@moodys.com or visit our web site at www.moodys.com.

New York
Nick Levidy
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

New York
Michael M. Gerdes
Senior Vice President
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's Investors Service
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's sees more volume and stable performance for CMBS in 2011
No Related Data.
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