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05 Oct 2009
Hong Kong, October 05, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has changed its outlook for the Chinese
residential property market to stable from negative in view of our expectations
that conditions in that sector are stabilizing and likely to remain so
for the next 12 months.
This situation is driven by evidence that favorable macro-economic
conditions have improved sentiment and sales, in turn reducing inventory
and leading to the likelihood of prices showing relatively greater stability.
Moody's lead analyst for the sector, Kaven Tsang, says,
"The operating environment for the Chinese real estate sector has improved
with demand for residential properties buoyed by improved sentiment among
buyers. This support is in part driven by falling concerns that
the government will intervene with material measures to curtail credit
to home buyers in the residential market in the near term."
"Specific evidence of this improved sentiment includes the strong sales
performance of major developers since 2Q 2009," comments Tsang,
adding "While a moderate decline in contracted sales from such a high
level is possible in the near term, we do not expect any material
deterioration, in light of the just-discussed favorable market
Peter Choy, a Moody's Vice President, says, "The
Chinese government's economic stimulus program -- introduced
in late 2008 -- resulted in easier access to credit and this has
benefited the property market."
"While the government will no doubt adjust its policies again in the future,
we see the current policy as likely to prevail over the next 12 months
as it is part of the current strategy to encourage domestic consumption
and fixed investments to support the economy in view of a relatively weak
export performance and a benign inflationary environment," says
Choy adds, "On the supply side, improved occupancies in the
tier-one urban centers and the falling inventories of major developers
have lowered the chance of a repetition of the severe price-cutting
competition prevalent in 2H 2008. The improved liquidity profile
of major property developers -- from strong contracted sales
and their success in raising equity as capital markets conditions eased
-- also creates less pressure for them to dump unsold inventories.
These factors together offer some stability to residential prices in the
near to medium term."
Choy says, "However, whether ratings for individual developers
will be impacted positively by such stabilization of the industry outlook
will depend on a particular developer's financial discipline in
land acquisitions, adequacy of liquidity to manage its debts,
sales execution, and the scale of development that can be supported
by its financial means."
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Asia Pacific Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: (852) 2916-1150
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077
Moody's sees stable outlook for Chinese property sector
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Asia Pacific Ltd.
JOURNALISTS: (852) 2916-1150
SUBSCRIBERS: (852) 3551-3077
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