New York, October 25, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the ratings of ten tranches and
upgraded the ratings of 27 tranches from 24 transactions, backed
by manufactured housing loans, and issued between 1995 and 2002.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The actions are a result of the recent performance of manufactured housing
loans backed pools and reflect Moody's updated loss expectations on the
pools.
Today's rating action consists of a number of upgrades and downgrades.
The upgrades are primarily due to the build-up in credit enhancement
due to sequential pay structures and non-amortizing subordinate
bonds. The downgrades are a result of deteriorating performance
in certain transactions and structural features resulting in higher expected
losses for certain bonds than previously anticipated. Performance
has remained generally stable from our last review.
Today's actions correct the ratings of Class II A-2 from
GreenPoint Credit Manufactured Housing Contract Trust Pass-Through
Certificates, Series 2001-2, and Class A-2 from
GreenPoint Manufactured Housing Contract Trust 1999-2, GreenPoint
Manufactured Housing Contract Trust 1999-4, and GreenPoint
Manufactured Housing Contract Trust 2000-2. Due to an internal
administrative error, too much credit was given to excess spread
when these bonds were last reviewed in November 2011. The excess
spread has now been corrected, and today's rating action reflects
this change.
To estimate losses, Moody's first forecasted losses on the loans
that had a payment deferral based on 65% re-default rates
and 85% severity assumptions. Secondly, losses were
projected on the remaining loans that have not had any payment deferral
based on our annual conditional prepayment rates (CPR), annual constant
default rates (CDR), and 85% severity assumptions.
The CPR rate is derived from the average of actual CPR observed over the
last six months. The CDR rate is based on pipeline defaults derived
from days-aged delinquencies and Moody's assumptions for default
based on days delinquent or REO (15% for 30 days delinquent loans,
30% for 60 days delinquent loans, 90% for more than
90 days delinquent loans, and 100% for loans in REO).
Moody's has further assumed that both CDR and CPR will remain constant
over the life of each deal. A sudden reversal in the existing trend
of projected prepayments, defaults and losses is not anticipated
for these deals as they are well seasoned.
The losses from loans that had a deferral and those from the remaining
loans based on the CPR-CDR approach are weighed to calculate the
total projected loss for the deal.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach
to Rating US Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities" published
in December 2008. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
The primary source of assumption uncertainty is the uncertainty in our
central macroeconomic forecast and performance volatility due to servicer-related
issues. The unemployment rate fell from 9.0% in September
2011 to 7.8% in September 2012. Moody's forecasts
a further drop to 7.5% by 2014. Moody's expects
house prices to drop another 1% from their 4Q2011 levels before
gradually rising towards the end of 2013. Performance of manufactured
housing continues to remain highly dependent on servicer procedures.
Any change resulting from servicing transfers or other policy or regulatory
change can impact the performance of these transactions.
Rating Actions
To assess the rating implications Moody's calculated a deal specific loss
projection and compared it to the tranches' credit enhancement from subordination;
excess spread; and reserve account and third-party support
(if any) and the timing of principal repayment. The actions for
bonds rated Aaa, Aa, A, and Baa considered where full
expected principal repayment exceeds 5, 7, 10, and 10
years respectively because of uncertainty of cash flows and losses.
Moody's adjusts the methodologies noted above for bonds that financial
guarantors insure.
Bonds insured by financial guarantors
The credit quality of RMBS that a financial guarantor insures reflect
the higher of the credit quality of the guarantor or the RMBS without
the benefit of the guarantee. As a results, the rating on
the security is the higher of 1) the guarantor's financial strength rating
and 2) the current underlying rating, which is what the rating of
the security would be absent consideration of the guaranty. The
principal methodology Moody's uses in determining the underlying
rating is the same methodology for rating securities that do not have
financial guaranty, described earlier.
Complete rating actions are as follows:
Issuer: Deutsche Financial Capital Securitization LLC, Series
1998-1
Class A-2, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Apr 8,
2004 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Class A-3, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Apr 8,
2004 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Class A-4, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Apr 8,
2004 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Class A-5, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Apr 8,
2004 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Class A-6, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Apr 8,
2004 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Class A-7, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Apr 8,
2004 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Issuer: IndyMac Manufactured Housing Contract P-T Certificates,
Series, 1998-1
A-3, Upgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Mar 30,
2009 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
A-4, Upgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Mar 30,
2009 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
A-5, Upgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Mar 30,
2009 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Issuer: Signal Securitization Corp. MH Contract Pass-Through
Ctfs Series 1998-2
Class A, Upgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Mar 30, 2009
Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Issuer: Associates Manufactured Housing Pass-Through Certificates
1996-2
B-1, Upgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Dec 16,
2004 Downgraded to Ba2 (sf)
Issuer: BankAmerica MH Contract Series 1996-1
B-1, Upgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Oct 5,
2004 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Issuer: BankAmerica Manufactured Housing Contract Trust II Series
1997-1
M, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Nov 22, 2011
Upgraded to Ba1 (sf)
B-1, Upgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Oct 5,
2004 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Issuer: BankAmerica MH Contract 1998-2
B-1, Upgraded to B3 (sf); previously on Oct 5,
2004 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Issuer: BankAmerica MH Contract, Series 1998-1
B-1, Upgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Oct 5,
2004 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Issuer: Bombardier Capital Mortgage Securitization Corporation 1998-A
M, Upgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Mar 30, 2009
Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Issuer: CSFB ABS Trust Manufactured Housing Pass-Through
Certificates 2001-MH29
Cl. M-2, Upgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on
Dec 14, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Issuer: Green Tree Series 1995-3
B-1, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Aug 2,
2006 Downgraded to Ba2 (sf)
Issuer: GreenPoint Credit Manufactured Housing Contract Trust Pass-Through
Certificates, Series 2001-2
Cl. II A-2, Downgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously
on Apr 10, 2009 Upgraded to A2 (sf)
Financial Guarantor: Ambac Assurance Corporation (Segregated Account
- Unrated)
Issuer: GreenPoint Manufactured Housing Contract Trust 1999-2
A-2, Downgraded to B3 (sf); previously on Dec 21,
2010 Downgraded to B2 (sf)
Financial Guarantor: MBIA Insurance Corporation (B3 placed on review
for possible downgrade on Dec 19, 2011)
Issuer: Greenpoint Manufactured Housing Contract Trust 1999-4
Cl. A-2, Downgraded to B3 (sf); previously on
Apr 10, 2009 Upgraded to B1 (sf)
Financial Guarantor: MBIA Insurance Corporation (B3 placed on review
for possible downgrade on Dec 19, 2011)
Issuer: GreenPoint Manufactured Housing Contract Trust 2000-2
Cl. A-2, Downgraded to B3 (sf); previously on
Apr 10, 2009 Upgraded to B2 (sf)
Financial Guarantor: MBIA Insurance Corporation (B3 placed on review
for possible downgrade on Dec 19, 2011)
Issuer: Madison Avenue Manufactured Housing Contract Trust 2002-A
Cl. M-2, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on
Dec 15, 2011 Upgraded to Baa3 (sf)
Cl. B-2, Upgraded to Ca (sf); previously on Oct
22, 2004 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. B-1, Upgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on
Oct 22, 2004 Downgraded to C (sf)
Issuer: MERIT Securities Corporation Collateralized Bonds,
Series 12
1-M1, Upgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on May 13,
2004 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Issuer: Oakwood Mortgage Investors, Inc., Series
1998-C
A, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Dec 21, 2004
Downgraded to Baa3 (sf)
Issuer: Signal Securitization Corp. 1997-3
Class B, Upgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Oct 29,
2004 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Issuer: UCFC Funding Corporation Series 1998-1
A-3, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Sep 28,
2004 Downgraded to Baa3 (sf)
Issuer: Vanderbilt Mortgage and Finance Senior/Subordinate Pass-Through
Certificates, Series 2002-B
Cl. A-5, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on
Jan 27, 2012 Confirmed at A1 (sf)
Cl. M-1, Downgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on
Jan 27, 2012 Confirmed at Baa2 (sf)
Issuer: Vanderbilt Mortgage and Finance, Inc. 2000A
Cl. IA-5, Downgraded to A3 (sf); previously on
Feb 29, 2000 Assigned Aa3 (sf)
Cl. IM-1, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously
on Jan 27, 2012 Confirmed at A2 (sf)
Cl. IIB-2, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on
Feb 29, 2000 Assigned Baa2 (sf)
Issuer: Vanderbilt Mortgage and Finance, Inc. Series
1999-C
IA-5, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Jan 27,
2012 Downgraded to A3 (sf)
IM-1, Downgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Jan 27,
2012 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)
A list of these actions including CUSIP identifiers, updated estimated
pool losses, and sensitivity analysis may be found at:
Excel: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF304439
For more information please see www.moodys.com.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued
by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's
Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf,
London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph
3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies.
Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's
office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare each of the ratings are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings,
public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors
Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's
Analytics information.
Moody's received and took into account one or more third party assessments
on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial
instruments in these transactions and the assessments had a neutral impact
on the rating.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated
entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of
issuing these ratings.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it
uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources
Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate,
independent third-party sources. However, Moody's
is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or
validate information received in the rating process.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com
for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com
for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and
for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist
between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of
entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to
the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A
member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member
of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation;
however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process
page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning
of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time
before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not
be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that
it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information
that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page
on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Ilana?J?Fried
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Bruce D. Fabrikant
Senior Vice President
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's takes action on $658 million of manufactured housing securities issued between 1995 and 2002