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Rating Action:

Moody's takes action on Italian ABS and RMBS transactions

Global Credit Research - 20 Oct 2011

London, 20 October 2011 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded or placed on review the ratings of seven tranches in three Italian asset-backed securities (ABS) and eight tranches in six residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) due to insufficient credit enhancement. This rating action follows Moody's three-notch downgrade of the rating of the government of the Republic of Italy to A2 with a negative outlook, from Aa2. For full details, please refer to "Moody's downgrades Italy's government bond ratings to A2 with a negative outlook; Prime-1 rating affirmed", published on 4 October 2011.

At the same time, Moody's placed on review for downgrade the ratings of eleven tranches in eight RMBS due to increased operational risks. This action follows Moody's downgrade of the Italian banks on 5 October 2011. For full details, please refer to "Moody's takes rating actions on Italian banks following Italy's downgrade to A2".

The full list of affected ratings and summary rating rationale by tranche is detailed in the following link: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF265194

Moody's expects to conclude the rating reviews within 3 months.

As previously stated on 4 October 2011, Moody's believes that a Aaa(sf) rating remains achievable for Italian structured finance transactions that (i) benefit from sufficient credit enhancement; and (ii) have highly rated transaction parties or appropriate mitigants in place. Structural features and credit enhancement will continue to be able to mitigate the effects of increased collateral risk and performance disruption risk in a severe event and the level of uncertainty around them. Moody's discusses the relationship between sovereign ratings and structured finance ratings in Moody's Special Report "Assessing the Impact of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis on Structured Finance Transactions", published in April 2011.

RATINGS RATIONALE

-- INCREASED COLLATERAL RISK DRIVES DOWNGRADES FOR HIGHLY RATED TRANCHES WITH INSUFFICIENT CREDIT ENHANCEMENT

Today's rating action primarily reflects the increased risk that the factors driving the downgrade of the Italian sovereign will lead to a significant and uniform deterioration in asset performance. Whilst the probability of such deterioration remains very low, it has reached a point where current levels of credit enhancement for highly rated senior notes are, in some cases, insufficient to support the highest rating levels.

Given the significant challenges faced by the Italian government and the resultant likelihood of a difficult economic environment emerging, the debt repayment capacity of some individuals and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) will become increasingly strained. While the government's reform plans have begun to address the problems of low productivity and significant labour and product market rigidity, they will ultimately lead to public spending cuts, tax rises and efforts to increase tax compliance, and private sector knock-on effects, all of which hurt obligor performance.

Moody's believes that for Italian structured finance transactions to achieve a Aaa(sf) rating a minimum level of credit enhancement would be (i) 10%-15% for RMBS; (ii) 15%-20% for auto ABS; (iii) 20%-25% for consumer ABS; and (iv) 30%-35% for SME/Leases ABS.

Moody's has reviewed the ratings of Italian ABS and RMBS tranches that have credit enhancement levels in or below the minimum ranges listed above. In its assessment of ABS transactions, Moody's considered key collateral characteristics, performance and structural elements, such as excess spread or expected amortisation.

In its assessment of RMBS transactions, Moody's considered (i) available loan-by-loan information, such as loan-to-value (LTV) ratios; and (ii) exposure to obligors with high risk profiles in Southern Italy, such as self-employed borrowers or SMEs. To retain a Aaa(sf) rating, senior tranches backed by pools with greater-than-average exposure to self-employed and SME obligors would need credit enhancement levels of greater than 10% and 15%, respectively.

Moody's has downgraded senior tranches with insufficient credit enhancement by one or two notches. In the case of Auto ABS Srl, Moody's has placed under review the Aaa rating because of insufficient current credit enhancement. Moody's will re-assess the credit enhancement at the next interest payment date when additional information on collections and amortization will be available. In the case of Adriano Finance Srl Moody's was notified that the transaction will be re-structured and the credit enhancement will be increased. Moody's has therefore placed on review for downgrade the senior notes of Adriano Finance Srl, pending the completion of the restructuring proposal. Collateral assumptions and the loss and cash flow analysis for the affected transactions have not been updated as the rating action has been primarily driven by credit enhancement tests.

In some cases, the rating agency downgraded and/or placed on review mezzanine or junior tranches in transactions with relatively low credit enhancement. During its rating review, Moody's expects to re-assess the key collateral assumptions in these transactions in light of the increasing economic uncertainty.

Moody's negative outlook on the Italian government's debt rating reflects ongoing economic and financial risks in Italy and in the euro area. The uncertain market environment and the risk of further deterioration in investor sentiment could constrain the country's access to the public debt markets. If such risks were to materialise and the long-term availability of external sources of liquidity support were to remain uncertain, the country's debt rating could transition to substantially lower rating levels. The highest achievable structured finance rating for Italian structured finance transactions may be revised progressively downwards if the likelihood of those events were to increase.

--RISING PERFORMANCE DISRUPTION RISK IS ALSO AFFECTING ITALIAN STRUCTURED FINANCE RATINGS

Moody's has placed on review for downgrade the senior notes in a number of Italian RMBS transactions because of insufficient back-up servicing arrangements. This rating action follows the downgrade of a number of Italian banks that are fulfilling the servicer role in these transactions.

Moody's has placed the senior ratings on review for downgrade in transactions (i) with Baa-rated servicers, where there is no party in place to facilitate a servicing transfer or no rating trigger to appoint a back-up servicer; and (ii) with low-rated servicers, where there is no back-up servicer in place or the back-up servicer arrangement may not be sufficiently hot and the cash manager may not be able to ensure continuity of payments should the servicer report not be delivered in time.

As part of its review of these ratings, Moody's will assess rising performance disruption risk and the measures issuers have put in place to mitigate this risk, in line with the criteria described in the Rating Implementation Guidance "Global Structured Finance Operational Risk Guidelines: Moody's Approach to Analyzing Performance Disruption Risk", published on 28 June 2011.

--INCREASED COUNTERPARTY RISKS

Moody's downgrade of a number of Italian banks acting as transactions parties (i.e., swap counterparties, account banks and servicers) has resulted in several trigger breaches. The rating agency expects that remedial measures described in the transaction documentations will be implemented rapidly. The non-implementation of these remedies may result in further rating downgrades.

While the deteriorating credit quality of originating banks will increase set-off risk for a number of ABS and RMBS transactions, Moody's notes that several transactions benefit from set-off reserves or from increased credit enhancement levels on the back of deleveraging. Moreover, Moody's is currently reviewing the value it gives to the Deposit Guarantee Funds, which mitigate set-off risk as described in "Moody's Approach to Set-off risk in Italian Structured and Covered Bonds Transactions", published in February 2011. This review marks a departure from Moody's previous use of a stressed originator rating to model set-off risk on new transactions. Moody's will communicate the results of this review, as well as their potential impact on existing ratings, to the market upon completion.

In addition, Moody's downgraded the class B notes of Medioleasing (an Italian lease ABS) as payments of interest and principal of the notes are guaranteed by Banca delle Marche, which the rating agency downgraded to Baa1 from A3.

"The Global Structured Finance Operational Risk Guidelines: Moody's Approach to Analyzing Performance Disruption Risk" rating implementation guidance and the minimum credit enhancement requirements described above complement and in the Moody's Special Report "Assessing the Impact of the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis on Structured Finance Transactions" published in April 2011the applicable principal methodologies for each asset class.

The principal methodology used in rating RMBS transactions was "Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS in Europe, Middle East, and Africa", published in October 2009. The principal methodology used in rating Consumer ABS transactions was "Moody's Approach to Rating Consumer Loan ABS Transactions", published in July 2011. The principal methodology used in rating auto ABS transactions was "Moody's Approach to Rating European Auto ABS", published November 2002. The principal methodology used in rating ABS SME was "Moody's Approach to Rating CDOs of SMEs in Europe", published February 2007.

LIST OF AFFECTED ABS TRANSACTIONS

Issuer: Auto ABS S.r.l.

....EUR816M A Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jul 25, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

....EUR34M B Notes, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jul 25, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned A1 (sf)

Issuer: Cars Alliance Funding Plc -- Series 2007-1

....EUR838.5M A Notes, Downgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Jul 2, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

....EUR35.5M B Notes, A2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jul 2, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned A2 (sf)

Issuer: Leasimpresa Finance S.r.l. (LF 2)

....EUR931.5M A Notes, Downgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Sep 7, 2010 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)

....EUR57.2M B Notes, A2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Sep 7, 2010 Confirmed at A2 (sf)

....EUR10.3M C Notes, Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Sep 7, 2010 Confirmed at Baa2 (sf)

Issuer: Medioleasing Finance S.r.l

....EUR105.4M B Notes, Downgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Jul 6, 2009 Downgraded to A3 (sf)

LIST OF AFFECTED RMBS TRANSACTIONS

Issuer: Adriano Finance S.r.l

....EUR7557.95M A Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Aug 4, 2008 Assigned Aaa (sf)

Issuer: Argo Mortgage 2 S.r.l.

....EUR808.3M A Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jul 26, 2004 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

....EUR26.8M B Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 29, 2010 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)

Issuer: Argo Mortgage S.r.L.

....EUR478M A Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 28, 2002 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

Issuer: Asti Finance S.r.l.

....EUR479.75M A Notes, Downgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on May 23, 2008 Assigned Aaa (sf)

Issuer: Bipielle Residential S.r.l.

....EUR733M A2 Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 25, 2004 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

Issuer: BP Mortgages S.r.l.

....EUR1172.65M A2 Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Apr 14, 2011 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)

Issuer: Capital Mortgages Series 2007-1

....EUR1736M A1 Notes, Downgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Mar 30, 2010 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)

....EUR644M A2 Notes, Downgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Mar 30, 2010 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)

....EUR74M B Notes, A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 30, 2010 Downgraded to A3 (sf)

Issuer: CASA D'ESTE FINANCE S.R.L. II

....EUR270M A1 Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 18, 2008 Assigned Aaa (sf)

....EUR30M A2 Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 18, 2008 Assigned Aaa (sf)

Issuer: Fanes S.r.l.

....EUR400M A Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jul 28, 2009 Assigned Aaa (sf)

Issuer: Marche Mutui 2 S.r.l.

....EUR511.45M A2 Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Oct 23, 2006 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

Issuer: Marche Mutui Società per la Cartolarizzazione S.r.l.

....EUR281.8M A2 Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 31, 2003 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

Issuer: Mercurio Mortgage Finance S.R.L. 2009-6

....EUR2261.55M Class A Notes, Downgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Nov 23, 2009 Assigned Aaa (sf)

Issuer: Sestante Finance Srl - Series 2005

....EUR47.35M B Notes, A2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 18, 2009 Downgraded to A2 (sf)

Issuer: Vela Home - Series 4

....EUR82.8M B Notes, Downgraded to Aa2 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Oct 3, 2006 Definitive Rating Assigned Aa1 (sf)

Issuer: Voba Finance S.R.L.

....EUR295.05M A2 Notes, Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Dec 12, 2006 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

The lead analyst and rating office for each of the transactions affected are generally different from the contact and office listed at the end of this press release. For each transaction, the lead analyst name and the rating office is available on the issuer page on www.moodys.com

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

The rating of Adriano Finance S.r.l has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with amendment resulting from that disclosure following new information provided by the transaction sponsor to Moody's.

The rating of all other deals have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within the three years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Caroline Pichon
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's France SAS
96 Boulevard Haussmann
Paris 75008
France
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Annick Poulain
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's takes action on Italian ABS and RMBS transactions
No Related Data.

 

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