London, 03 November 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has today taken rating actions on Italian residential
mortgage backed securities (RMBS) transactions.
Specifically, Moody's has upgraded 9 notes, placed on review
for upgrade 9 notes and affirmed 9 notes across 12 Italian RMBS transactions.
Moody's has downgraded 2 notes and placed on review for downgrade
4 notes across 4 Italian RMBS transactions.
Please click on the following link to access the full list of affected
credit ratings. This list is an integral part of this press release
and identifies each affected issuer: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF420577.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's upgrades, reviews for upgrade and affirmations reflect (1)
the reduced uncertainty related to the collateral assumption of this seasoned
portfolio, and (2) the deleveraging of the transactions.
Today's downgrades and placing on review for downgrade reflect (1) the
worsening of key collateral assumptions and (2) in some cases reduced
credit enhancement.
Today's upgrade of class B rating in Marche Mutui 2 S.r.l.,
reflects the correction of an error in our assessment of the account bank
risk in this transaction.
CHANGES IN KEY COLLATERAL ASSUMPTIONS
Our collateral performance outlook for Italian RMBS is stable.
The recent more favourable economic conditions (low interest rates,
slightly higher GDP growth and slightly improved unemployment rate) have
benefited some of Italian RMBS borrowers and the delinquencies and defaults
of the Italian RMBS market remained relatively stable in recent months.
However, the pace of recovery is slow and we still see deterioration
of performance in some deals. Notwithstanding, we believe
uncertainty in the sector in general and, in some transactions of
this seasoned portfolio in particular, has reduced. Due to
the reduced uncertainty in the sector, we have removed the additional
stress analysis of key collateral assumptions.
Moody's has reassessed its lifetime loss expectations (EL) for the 16
transactions, taking into account the transactions' underlying collateral
performance to date. As a result, we increased EL assumptions
for eight deals based on weaker than expected collateral performance and
benchmarking considerations. EL assumption has remained unchanged
for the remaining eight deals. EL assumption increase was small
for some of the deals for which it did not result in a negative impact
on the ratings of the notes as it was offset by deleveraging or reduced
uncertainty in the sector.
The increased EL assumptions resulted in an increase in MILAN CE for three
deals for which EL Multiple exceeded current assumption. EL Multiple
corresponds to the MILAN CE floor according to Moody's methodology
for rating RMBS transactions using the MILAN framework.
DELEVERAGING OF TRANSACTIONS
Repayment of principal collections has contributed to increase credit
enhancement. In addition reserve funds have been replenished and
Principal Deficiencies Ledgers have reduced in some cases.
CORRECTION OF OUR ASSESSMENT OF ACCOUNT BANK RISK
On 1 April 2015 Moody's assessed that the potential upgrade of the rating
of class B in Marche Mutui 2 S.r.l., was constrained
at the Aa3 (sf) level due to the mis application of a cap on account bank
risk exposure (http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PR_321989).
Today's action reflects the correct application of 'The Temporary Use
of Cash in Structured Finance Transactions: Eligible Investment
and Bank Guidelines' cross-sector methodology in our assessment
of the account bank risk for this transaction.
ANTICIPATED COMPLETION OF THE PLACEMENTS ON REVIEW
Moody's expects to conclude the majority of the rating reviews within
three months.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach
to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in January 2015.
Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for
a copy of this methodology.
The analysis undertaken by Moody's at the initial assignment of ratings
for RMBS securities may focus on aspects that become less relevant or
typically remain unchanged during the surveillance stage. Please
see Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework for further
information on Moody's analysis at the initial rating assignment and the
ongoing surveillance in RMBS.
FACTORS THAT WOULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS:
Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings
are (1) performance of the underlying collateral that exceeds Moody's
expectations; (2) deleveraging of the capital structure; and
(3) improvements in the credit quality of the transaction counterparties.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings
are (1) an increased probability of high loss scenarios owing to a downgrade
of the country ceiling; (2) performance of the underlying collateral
that does not meet Moody's expectations; (3) deterioration in the
notes' available CE; and (4) deterioration in the credit quality
of the transaction counterparties.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
Please click on this link http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF420577
for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral
part of this Press Release and provides, for each of the credit
ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the following items:
- Lead analyst
- Key Rationale for Action
- Person Approving the Credit Rating
- Releasing office
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity
analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity
to Assumptions of the disclosure form.
The analysis relies on an assessment of collateral characteristics to
determine the collateral loss distribution, that is, the function
that correlates to an assumption about the likelihood of occurrence to
each level of possible losses in the collateral. As a second step,
Moody's evaluates each possible collateral loss scenario using a model
that replicates the relevant structural features to derive payments and
therefore the ultimate potential losses for each rated instrument.
The loss a rated instrument incurs in each collateral loss scenario,
weighted by assumptions about the likelihood of events in that scenario
occurring, results in the expected loss of the rated instrument.
Moody's quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that
stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account
the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows.
Moody's weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions
of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
The relevant office for each credit rating is identified in "Debt/deal
box" on the Ratings tab in the Debt/Deal List section of each issuer/entity
page of the Website.
The below contact information is provided for information purposes only.
Please see the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com,
for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the lead
analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued the ratings.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Alexander Roll
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Masako Oshima
Senior Vice President/Manager
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's takes actions on multiple Italian RMBS notes' ratings