London, 31 March 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has recently taken rating
actions on the following 11 European airport companies:
- Ratings placed on review for downgrade: Avinor AS (A1,
rating under review), Copenhagen Airports A/S (Baa2, rating
under review), Copenhagen Airports Denmark ApS (Baa3, rating
under review), Gatwick Funding Limited (Baa1, rating under
review), Manchester Airport Group Funding Plc (Baa1, rating
under review), Milione S.p.A. (Baa3,
rating under review)
- Outlook changed to negative from stable: Aena S.M.E.,
S.A. (A3, negative), Brussels Airport Company
NV/S.A. (Baa1, negative), Heathrow Finance plc
(Ba1/Ba3, negative), Royal Schiphol Group N.V.
(A3, negative)
- Rating affirmation with a stable outlook: Letiste Praha,
a.s. (Aa3, stable).
The rating actions are triggered by the unprecedented traffic declines
at European airports as a result of severe restrictions to air travel,
cancellation of airline routes and closing of borders in light of the
rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
In addition to the above, Moody's has the following ratings
outstanding in the European airport sector: Aeroporti di Roma S.p.A.
(Baa3, negative), Aeroports de la Cote d'Azur (ACA)
(Baa2, rating under review), Azzurra Aeroporti S.p.A.
(Baa3, rating under review), Birmingham Airport (Finance)
Plc (Baa1, rating under review) and Flughafen Berlin Brandenburg
GmbH (A1, stable).
RATIONALE FOR RECENT RATING ACTIONS
The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak, the deteriorating
global economic outlook, falling oil prices and asset price declines
are creating a severe and extensive credit shock across many sectors,
regions and markets. The combined credit effects of these developments
are unprecedented. The airport sector is among the most significantly
affected by the shock given its exposure to travel restrictions and sensitivity
to consumer demand and sentiment.
Moody's current base case assumption is that the coronavirus pandemic
will lead to a period of severe cuts in passenger traffic over the upcoming
weeks given restrictions on travel, but that there will be a gradual
recovery in passenger volumes starting by the third quarter 2020.
Unlike previous negative shocks such as the SARS epidemic in 2003,
the prospects for traffic rebound is more uncertain because (1) travel
restrictions in some form may continue for some time even if the spread
of the virus seems contained; (2) the deteriorating global economic
outlook would likely slow the recovery in traffic and consumer spending,
even if travel restrictions are eased; and (3) the coronavirus outbreak
is also weakening the credit profile of airlines, which have been
drastically cutting capacity. As events continue to unfold,
there is a higher than usual degree of uncertainty around the length of
travel restrictions and drop in travel demand. Hence, it
is difficult to predict the overall traffic volumes for 2020.
Nevertheless, Moody's currently assumes that the decline in
passenger traffic will be at least 30% in 2020 compared to the
previous year, driven by dramatic declines in the first half of
the year and a recovery in the second half, albeit phased over the
period. There are, however, high risks of more challenging
downside scenarios.
The longer term impact of the coronavirus pandemic still remains difficult
to assess, given airports' exposure to airlines, which
are themselves under significant stress. However, and notwithstanding
the significantly reduced cash flow over at least the next few weeks,
Moody's still considers airports located in large cities,
including in capital cities, and airport networks covering large
countries, to be key infrastructure providers, with a potential
for traffic recovery once the coronavirus outbreak and its effects have
been contained.
Given Moody's current assumption that the travel restrictions will
be eventually lifted or at least significantly reduced, the key
differentiating factors in positioning of European airports' ratings
are issuer-specific (1) liquidity position and ability to withstand
a period of no income generation either because of travel restrictions
or management decision not to collect charges; (2) headroom against
financial covenants included in the debt documentation; and (3) positioning
in the rating category against the guidance in the context of Moody's
current assumptions regarding traffic evolution and measures that the
companies and their shareholders may be able to take to mitigate the impact
of reduced passenger traffic this year.
For those ratings under review, the rating review will specifically
consider (1) companies' access to liquidity; and (2) potential
management and shareholder measures to mitigate the impact of substantial
declines in traffic on the companies' credit metrics and covenants.
Moody's will further consider the evolution of the operating environment,
including the extent and timeframe for air travel restrictions as well
as companies' exposure to airlines. Moody's will endeavour
to conclude the review for each of the affected companies as soon as practical.
For more detailed information on individual issuers, please see
the following press releases:
Ratings placed on review:
Avinor AS:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-reviews-Avinors-A1-ratings-for-downgrade--PR_421075
Copenhagen Airports A/S:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-reviews-Copenhagen-Airports-ratings-for-downgrade--PR_421218
Gatwick Funding Limited:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-reviews-Gatwick-Fundings-Baa1-ratings-for-downgrade--PR_421072
Manchester Airport Group Funding Plc:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-reviews-Manchester-Airport-Group-Fundings-Baa1-ratings-for-downgrade--PR_421068
Milione S.p.A.:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-reviews-Miliones-Baa3-ratings-for-downgrade--PR_420263
Outlook changed to negative:
Aena S.M.E., S.A.:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-to-negative-the-outlook-on-Aenas-rating--PR_421220
Brussels Airport Company NV/SA:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-rating-outlook-on-Brussels-Airport-to-negative-from--PR_420257
Heathrow Finance plc:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-to-negative-outlook-on-Heathrow-Finances-ratings--PR_421272
Royal Schiphol Group N.V.:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-changes-rating-outlook-on-Royal-Schiphol-Group-to-negative--PR_421219
Ratings affirmed:
Letiste Praha, a.s.:
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-affirms-Letiste-Praha-ass-Aa3-rating-outlook-stable--PR_421221
Moody´s regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under
its ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public
health and safety that lead to severe restrictions to air travel,
cancellation of airline routes and closing of borders, as well as
enhanced health and safety standards and regulation potentially resulting
in additional compliance expenses and potential non-compliance
costs in the form of fines.
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This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For
any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.
Joanna Fic
Senior Vice President
Infrastructure Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Andrew Blease
Associate Managing Director
Infrastructure Finance Group
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Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
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