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Rating Action:

Moody's takes rating actions on 11 senior certificates from Hipotecaria Su Casita Mexican RMBS

18 Oct 2011

Mexico, October 18, 2011 -- Moody's de Mexico (Moody's) has confirmed the ratings of nine senior certificates and downgraded the ratings of two senior certificates from eleven Mexican RMBS issued by Hipotecaria Su Casita, S.A. de C.V. Sociedad Financiera de Objeto Múltiple E.N.R. (Su Casita). The collateral backing the affected transactions consists of first-lien, fixed-rate loans denominated in UDIS or Mexican Pesos and granted primarily to low-income borrowers.

Today's actions conclude the rating reviews initiated in September 2010 after heightened concerns with respect to i) Su Casita's stability and ability as servicer, ii) future collateral performance given that an increased risk of a servicer disruption may result in weakening of collections activities, and iii) possible certificate interest payment defaults should significant collection disruptions occur.

The ratings confirmations of nine certificates reflect Moody's view that the completed and pending servicing transfers from Su Casita to the designated substitute servicers in those nine transactions are unlikely to pose the risk of interest payment defaults or performance deterioration warranting a downgrade. The downgrades of two certificates, however, reflect Moody's view that the pending transfers in those two transactions present a heightened risk of a temporary interest payment default.

The complete rating action is as follows:

Originator: Hipotecaria Su Casita, S.A. de C.V. Sociedad Financiera de Objeto Múltiple E.N.R.

Issuer: The Bank of New York Mellon, S.A. Institución de Banca Múltiple, acting solely as trustee.

-- Class A BRHCGCB 03U, confirmed Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale) and Baa1 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency) ratings.

-- Class A BRHCGCB 04U, confirmed Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale) and Baa1 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency) ratings.

-- Class A BRHSCCB 05U, confirmed Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale) and Baa1 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency) ratings.

-- Class A BRHSCCB 06, confirmed Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale) and Baa1 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency) ratings.

-- Class A BRHSCCB 06-2, confirmed Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale) and Baa1 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency) ratings.

-- Class A BRHSCCB 06U, downgraded to Aa2.mx (sf) from Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale) and to Baa3 (sf) from Baa1 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency); certificates are no longer on review.

-- Class A BRHSCCB 06-3U, confirmed Aa2.mx (sf) (National Scale) and Baa3 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency) ratings.

-- Class A BRHSCCB 06-5U, confirmed Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale) and Baa1 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency) ratings.

-- Class A BRHSCCB 07, confirmed Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale) and Baa1 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency) ratings.

-- Class A-1 BRHCCB 07U, confirmed Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale) and Baa1 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency) ratings.

Issuer: HSBC México, S.A. Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC, División Fiduciaria, acting solely as trustee.

-- Class A-1 BRHCCB 08U, downgraded to Aa2.mx from Aaa.mx (sf) (National Scale) and to Baa3 (sf) from Baa1 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency); certificates are no longer on review.

RATING RATIONALE

RATING CONFIRMATIONS (TRANSFERS TO ING): BRHSCCB 06, BRHSCCB 06-2, BRHSCCB 06-3U, BRHSCCB 06-5U, BRHSCCB 07

The rating confirmations for the five transactions where ING Hipotecaria, S.A. de C.V. (ING) has been appointed as substitute servicer reflects ING's positive experience to date in completing the servicing transfers for four Su Casita RMBS rated by Moody's (including BRHSCCB 06-2, BRHSCCB 06-3U, BRHSCCB 06-5U and BRHSCCB 07; the BRHSCCB 06 transfer is pending). Today's rating action assumes that BRHSCCB 06's pending transfer to ING will occur in a similar fashion. As of August 2011 (just three months after the servicing transfers to ING), the level of collections had recovered to pre-transfer levels. Further, the August 2011 collection period reflects the first month where ING completely controls the servicing process, meaning that Su Casita is no longer accepting collections on ING's behalf.

Moody's notes that there was less disruption in collections in the RMBS transferred to ING as compared to the two transactions transferred to Patrimonio S.A. de C.V. (Patrimonio). The transfer process to ING benefited from the following: i) Su Casita's collaboration in the months following the transfers (as is also the case for Patrimonio); Su Casita assisted with collections when borrowers continued to pay Su Casita despite ING's new instructions to pay via banks, ii) the stronger historical performance of the transactions that ING now services as compared to those transferred to Patrimonio, and iii) per ING, the large proportion of borrowers already accustomed to making payments at banks (rather than in cash at Su Casita-manned payment booths). Per ING, it has the legal powers necessary to initiate foreclosure proceedings for the Su Casita RMBS that it services.

Moody's projections for lifetime cumulative gross defaults, losses and credit enhancement (expressed as a percentage of the current pool balance including REOs) are as follows:

-- Class A BRHSCCB 06, defaults of 21%, losses of 11%, credit enhancement of 29%

-- Class A BRHSCCB 06-2, defaults of 26%, losses of 16%, credit enhancement of 35%

-- Class A BRHSCCB 06-3U, defaults of 45%, losses of 23%, credit enhancement of 34%

-- Class A BRHSCCB 06-5U, defaults of 30%, losses of 18%, credit enhancement of 30%

-- Class A BRHSCCB 07, defaults of 27%, losses of 16%, credit enhancement of 34%

RATING CONFIRMATIONS (TRANSFERS TO PATRIMONIO): BRHSCCB 05U, BRHCCB 07U

The rating confirmations for BRHSCCB 05U and BRHCCB 07U reflect Patrimonio's experience in the BRHCCB 07U and the 2007 Crossborder RMBS servicing transfers in December 2010 in which Patrimonio is now the new servicer. Moody's notes that although Patrimonio has assumed servicing in those two transactions, Su Casita will continue to collaborate with collections through December 2011 since it continues to receive approximately 10% of collections eight months after the transfer. The BRHSCCB 05U rating confirmation also assumes that the pending transfer to Patrimonio will occur in a similar fashion.

Following the transfer of BRHCCB 07U to Patrimonio, monthly collections have averaged 4.9 million UDIs compared to 6.8 million UDIs during the six months prior to the transfer, representing a 28% decline. As of August 2011, collections remained at these lower levels. This decline is due in part to a decline in REO recoveries and prepayments in the months following the transfer. For this transaction, Moody's also noted a significant deterioration in the percentage of the pool that was "current" or 0 days past due in recent months (as of August 2011 this bucket equaled just 15.8% of the pool excluding REOs, compared to 43.5% prior to the transfer and 52.2% in December 2010 after the transfer to Patrimonio). Per Patrimonio, this decline is due to a recent change in the way it calculates delinquency status. The change results in a more conservative calculation since a delinquency is recognized sooner. Note that the trend in 90+ day delinquencies has not changed since the transfer date.

The BRHCCB 07U rating confirmations considers that the lower level of collections following the transfer to Patrimonio have not triggered an interest payment default due to the certificate's strong interest coverage ratios prior to the transfer (at 1.5x as of September 2011). The BRHSCCB 05U ratings confirmation considers that even if collections were to decline by 60% (which is unlikely given Patrimonio's experience), the certificate is not likely to suffer an interest payment default given its strong interest coverage ratio of 4.0x as of September 2011 given the transaction's single waterfall. Even after stressing our lifetime expected losses for these pools above our baseline scenario by 10% to account for possibly worse performance and delays in initiating foreclosure proceedings given delays in establishing Patrimonio's legal power to do so, the certificates benefit from strong credit enhancement levels consistent with the assigned ratings.

Moody's projections for lifetime cumulative gross defaults, losses and credit enhancement (expressed as a percentage of the current pool balance including REOs) are as follows:

-- Class A BRHSCCB 05U, defaults of 39%, losses of 23%, credit enhancement of 35%

-- Class A-1 BRHCCB 07U, defaults of 70%, losses of 55%, credit enhancement of 93% (since Class A-1 pays sequential to Class A-2, Moody's considers that Class A-2 provides subordination to Class A-1)

RATING DOWNGRADES (TRANSFERS TO PATRIMONIO): BRHSCCB 06U, BRHCCB 08-U

The downgrades to Aa2.mx (sf) from Aaa.mx (sf) for the BRHCCB 08-U and BRHSCCB 06U certificates reflect the heightened risk of an interest default if following the pending servicing transfers to Patrimonio, collections available for the interest waterfall decline by a percentage similar to that experienced in the deals already transferred to Patrimonio. After stressing our expected losses for these pools by 10%, BRHSCCB 06U's ratings are consistent with the downgraded ratings while BRHCCB 08-U's ratings could be higher given its robust level of credit enhancement. However, given the risk of a temporary interest payment default, today's rating action positions BRHCCB 08-U's ratings lower.

Moody's projections for lifetime cumulative gross defaults, losses and credit enhancement (expressed as a percentage of the current pool balance including REOs) are as follows:

-- Class A BRHSCCB 06U, defaults of 33%, losses of 25%, credit enhancement of 34%

-- Class A-1 BRHCCB 08U, defaults of 52%, losses of 27%, credit enhancement of 76% (since Class A-1 pays sequential to Class A-2, Moody's considers that Class A-2 provides subordination to Class A-1)

Regarding the variability of the downgraded BRHCCB 07U and BRHCCB 08U certificates, if Moody's were to expect a prolonged, rather than temporary, default of interest payments as a result of servicing disruption, the certificates would likely experience a one-notch downgrade to Ba1 (Global Scale, Local Currency) and a downgrade to A1.mx (National Scale).

The primary sources of assumption uncertainty are related to the macroeconomic environment, the timing of recovery of the Mexican economy and labor market, the severity of loss assumption given the limited market data related to historical recoveries for REOs, and the extent of any potential servicing disruptions following the pending servicing transfers. Additionally, there is no guarantee that the experience for the pending servicing transfers for the BRHCGCB 03U, BRHCGCB 04U, BRHSCCB 05U, BRHSCCB 06 , BRHSCCB 06U, and BRHCCB 08-U transactions will be the same as that observed for the servicing transfers from Su Casita to Hipotecaria ING and Patrimonio which have been completed.

RATING CONFIRMATIONS (TRANSFERS TO PENDULUM, TERTIUS): BRHCGCB 03U, BRHCGCB 04U

The BRHCGCB 03U and BRHCGCB 04U ratings confirmations consider the following: i) Moody's assumption that the servicing will be transferred to the appointed servicers -- Pendulum S. de R.L. CGCB (BRHCGCB 03U) and Tertius S.A.P.I. de C.V., S.O.F.O.M (BRHCGCB 04U) ii) Moody's assumption that Su Casita will collaborate with servicing collection in the months following the transfer to minimize the risk of interruptions to collections, iii) the substitute servicers' knowledge and experience with regards to servicing transfers, iv) even if collections were to decline by 60% (which is unlikely given Patrimonio's and ING's experience with the Su Casita transactions), the certificates would avert a default given their strong interest coverage ratios (of 9.4x and 4.3% as of September 2011, respectively) due to their single waterfalls, v) the certificates benefit from partial credit guarantees to cover interest shortfalls in a worst-case drop in collections of greater than approximately 60%, and vi) even after stressing expected losses above and beyond our baseline assumptions, the certificates benefit from strong credit enhancement levels consistent with the assigned ratings.

Moody's projections for lifetime cumulative gross defaults, losses and credit enhancement (expressed as a percentage of the current pool balance including REOs) are as follows:

-- Class A BRHCGCB 03U, defaults of 27%, losses of 26%, credit enhancement of 79%

-- Class A BRHCGCB 04U, defaults of 28%, losses of 25%, credit enhancement of 50%

Moody's also positively views that the role of a master servicer has been approved for nine out of the eleven transactions (as of today, GMAC Financiera S.A. de C.V. S.O.F.O.L. will be master servicer for eight). A master servicer enhances i) transparency, by preparing independent reports on securitization performance, ii) certainty, through close supervision of cash flows and the operations of primary servicers, and iii) stability, by taking a leading role in case of a primary servicer substitution.

RATING METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to Monitoring Residential Mortgage-Backed Securitizations in Mexico" published August 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Further, Moody's considered that a loan servicer's capabilities can have a significant effect - either positive or negative - on realized loss levels in residential mortgage loan securitizations. Moody's assesses a servicer's ability to affect residential mortgage losses today and into the future. A servicer's financial stability could negatively affect its ability to properly perform its duties as primary servicer of securitized mortgage loans. Furthermore, any negative impact on the servicing function may in turn adversely affect the performance of the loans serviced by the company. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website.

Moody's National Scale Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".mx" for Mexico. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale ratings, please refer to Moody's Rating Implementation Guidance published in August 2010 entitled "Mapping Moody's National Scale Ratings to Global Scale Ratings".

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

The Global Scale Credit Ratings for the following issuers/deals that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are considered EU Qualified by Extension and therefore available for regulatory use in the EU. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com

Hipotecaria Su Casita -BRHCGCB 03U

Hipotecaria Su Casita BRHCGCB 04U

Hipotecaria Su Casita -BRHSCCB 05U

Hipotecaria Su Casita -BRHSCCB 06

Hipotecaria Su Casita -BRHSCCB 06-2

Hipotecaria Su Casita -BRHSCCB 06U

Hipotecaria Su Casita -BRHSCCB 06-3U

Hipotecaria Su Casita -BRHSCCB 06-5U

Hipotecaria Su Casita -BRHSCCB 07

Hipotecaria Su Casita -BRHCCB 07U

Hipotecaria Su Casita - BRHCCB 08U

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

Information sources used to prepare the ratings are the following: public information and parties involved in the ratings.

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.

Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.

Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.

Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.

Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.

The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Karen Ramallo
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Maria Muller
Senior Vice President
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

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Moody's takes rating actions on 11 senior certificates from Hipotecaria Su Casita Mexican RMBS
No Related Data.
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