Approximately $145 million of asset-backed securities affected
New York, May 17, 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has downgraded the rating of Class A-4 notes issued by CIT Education Loan Trust 2005-1, and upgraded the rating of Class B notes issued by Nelnet Student Loan Trust 2006-1. The securitizations are backed by student loans originated under the Federal Family Education Loan Program (FFELP) that are guaranteed by the US government for a minimum of 97% of defaulted principal and accrued interest. Nelnet, Inc. is the administrator for both securitizations.
The complete rating actions are as follows:
Issuer: CIT Education Loan Trust 2005-1
Cl. A-4, Downgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Jun 3, 2020 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Issuer: Nelnet Student Loan Trust 2006-1
Cl. B, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Oct 5, 2016 Upgraded to A1 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's rating actions reflect updated performance of the transactions and updated expected loss on the tranches across Moody's cash flow scenarios. Moody's quantitative analysis derives the expected loss of the tranche using 28 cash flow scenarios with weights accorded to each scenario.
The downgrade of Class A-4 notes in CIT Education Loan Trust 2005-1 reflects the lower collateral pool amortization rate and the increased risk of the notes paying down by their final maturity dates, driven by the significant increases in forbearance previously and the persistently high levels of loans to borrowers in non-standard payment plans, including deferment, forbearance and Income-Based Repayment (IBR).
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach to Rating Securities Backed by FFELP Student Loans" published in April 2021 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1271436. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Up
Moody's could upgrade the ratings if the paydown speed of the loan pool increases as a result of declining borrower usage of deferment, forbearance and IBR, increasing voluntary prepayment rates, or prepayments with proceeds from sponsor repurchases of student loan collateral. Moody's could also upgrade the ratings owing to a build-up in credit enhancement.
Down
Moody's could downgrade the ratings if the paydown speed of the loan pool declines as a result of lower than expected voluntary prepayments, and higher than expected deferment, forbearance and IBR rates, which would threaten full repayment of the class by its final maturity date. In addition, because the US Department of Education guarantees at least 97% of principal and accrued interest on defaulted loans, Moody's could downgrade the rating of the notes if it were to downgrade the rating on the United States government.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
In rating this transaction, Moody's used a cash flow model to model cash flow stress scenarios to determine the extent to which investors would receive timely payments of interest and principal in the stress scenarios, given the transaction structure and collateral composition.
Moody's quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody's weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.
Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1288235.
The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.
The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Huangyi Shi
Associate Lead Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Jinwen Chen
VP - Sr Credit Officer/Manager
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653