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Rating Action:

Moody's upgrades 10 notes in 5 Spanish SME ABS Transactions originated by Banco Popular Espanol

09 Oct 2014

Frankfurt am Main, October 09, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today upgraded the ratings of 10 notes and affirmed the ratings of eight notes in five Spanish asset-backed securities (ABS) transactions:

- IM BANCO POPULAR FTPYME 1, FTA

- IM Grupo Banco Popular Empresas 1, FTA

- IM Grupo Banco Popular Empresas V, FTA

- IM Grupo Banco Popular FTPYME I, FTA

- IM Grupo Banco Popular FTPYME II, FTA

Today's rating action concludes the review of the notes placed on review on 17 March 2014, following the upgrade of the Spanish sovereign rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and the resulting increase of the local-currency country ceiling to A1 from A3 (http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PR_292078). The sovereign rating upgrade reflected improvements in institutional strength and reduced susceptibility to event risk associated with lower government liquidity and banking sector risks.

All five transactions are originated by Banco Popular Espanol, S.A. (Ba3/NP) and backed by loans to small and medium sized enterprises.

Please refer to the end of the Ratings Rationale section for a list of affected ratings.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Today's rating action reflects (1) the increase in the Spanish local-currency country ceiling to A1 and (2) sufficiency of credit enhancement in the affected transactions which has increased significantly over the last 12 months.

-- Reduced Sovereign Risk

The Spanish sovereign rating was upgraded to Baa2 in February 2014, which resulted in an increase in the local-currency country ceiling to A1. The Spanish country ceiling, and therefore the maximum rating that Moody's will assign to a domestic Spanish issuer including structured finance transactions backed by Spanish receivables, is A1 (sf).

The increase of credit enhancement combined with stable performance and the reduction in sovereign risk has prompted the upgrade of the notes.

-- Key collateral assumptions

Moody's has revised its volatility assumption in those transactions given the reduced country risk. Most assumptions remain unchanged given the stable performance of the transactions and the stable outlook for Spanish ABS (http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF373727). The default probability (DP) remains unchanged in all the transactions with the exception of IM Grupo Banco Popular FTPYME II, FTA increased from 16.5% to 22% on the current balance to reflect current pool characteristics. In particular, this deal has very large borrower concentrations. The recovery rate assumptions remain unchanged in all five transactions.

In IM BANCO POPULAR FTPYME 1, FTA the unchanged default probability assumption (DP) on current balance of 13.2% (corresponding to a DP on original balance of 5.7%) together with an unchanged recovery rate of 60% and an updated volatility of 89.4% correspond to an unchanged portfolio credit enhancement of 22%. In this transaction the top debtor represents 2.8% of the current portfolio, top 5 8.2% and top 10 12.8%.

In IM Grupo Banco Popular Empresas 1, FTA the unchanged default probability assumption (DP) on current balance of 16.5% (corresponding to a DP on original balance of 9.4%) together with an unchanged recovery rate of 60% and an updated volatility of 75.8% correspond to an unchanged portfolio credit enhancement of 22.8%. In this transaction the top debtor represents 3.5% of the current portfolio, top 5 13.4% and top 10 19.9%.

In IM Grupo Banco Popular Empresas V, FTA Moody's has kept unchanged the default probability assumption (DP) on current balance of 9.3% (corresponding to a DP on original balance of 7.8%) and the recovery rate of 35%. Moody's has increased slightly the portfolio credit enhancement to 21.5% from 20% which results in an updated volatility of 55.2%. In this transaction the top debtor represents 1.4% of the current portfolio, top 5 3.4% and top 10 5.2%.

In IM Grupo Banco Popular FTPYME I, FTA the unchanged default probability assumption (DP) on current balance of 16.5% (corresponding to a DP on original balance of 12.5%) together with an unchanged recovery rate of 60% and an updated volatility of 75.6% correspond to an unchanged portfolio credit enhancement of 21.5%. In this transaction the top debtor represents 1% of the current portfolio, top 5 4.1% and top 10 7.3%.

In IM Grupo Banco Popular FTPYME II, FTA performance have deteriorated slightly over the recent periods with an increase of the delinquencies 90+ to 4.7% of the current pool balance as of August 2014. Given the low pool factor of 7%, the pool is concentrated (the biggest obligor represents approximately 6% of the outstanding pool balance, the top 5 14.9% and top 10 22.6%) and exposed to potential delinquencies of the biggest debtors. Moody's has therefore increased its default probability assumption (DP) on current balance to 22% (corresponding to a DP on original balance of 10.2%) from 16.5%. Together with an unchanged recovery rate of 45% and an updated volatility of 32.6% this corresponds to an unchanged portfolio credit enhancement of 31.3%.

Sensitivity of the ratings to borrower concentration has been incorporated into the quantitative analysis. In particular, Moody's considered the credit enhancement coverage of large debtors in IM Banco Popular FTPYME 1, FTA, IM Grupo Banco Popular Empresas 1, FTA and IM Grupo Banco Popular FTPYME II, FTA which show significant exposure to large debtors. The results of this analysis limited the potential upgrade of the ratings of the class Class C of IM Banco Popular FTPYME 1, FTA, class D of IM Grupo Banco Popular Empresas 1, FTA and class D of IM Grupo Banco Popular FTPYME II, FTA.

-- Exposure to Counterparties

Moody's rating analysis also took into consideration the exposure to key transaction counterparties. In all five transactions, Banco Popular Espanol, S.A. (Ba3/NP) acts as servicer. Banco Santander S.A. (Spain) (Baa1/P-2) acts as issuer account bank in IM Grupo Banco Popular Empresas V, FTA., while BNP Paribas Securities Services (A1/P-1) acts as issuer account bank in the four other transactions. In all cases the reserve funds are held with the respective issuer account bank.

Banco Popular Espanol, S.A. (Ba3/NP) acts as swap counterparty in IM BANCO POPULAR FTPYME 1, FTA and in IM Grupo Banco Popular FTPYME II, FTA. JPMorgan Chase Bank, NA (Aa3/P-1) acts as swap counterparty in IM Grupo Banco Popular Empresas 1, FTA and HSBC Bank Plc is the swap counterparty IM Grupo Banco Popular FTPYME I, FTA.

Today's rating action takes into account the linkage to those counterparties. In particular the high linkage to Banco Popular Espanol, S.A. (Ba3/NP) as swap counterparty in IM Banco Popular FTPYME 1 has limited the upgrade of the tranche C in this deal.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Global Approach to Rating SME Balance Sheet Securitizations" published in January 2014. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:

Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings include (1) further reduction in sovereign risk, (2) performance of the underlying collateral that is better than Moody's expected, (3) deleveraging of the capital structure and (4) improvements in the credit quality of the transaction counterparties.

Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings include (1) an increase in sovereign risk, (2) performance of the underlying collateral that is worse than Moody's expects, (3) deterioration in the notes' available credit enhancement and (4) deterioration in the credit quality of the transaction counterparties.

Issuer: IM BANCO POPULAR FTPYME 1, FTA

....EUR418.8M Class A(G) Notes, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

....EUR55M Class B Notes, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....EUR71M Class C Notes, Upgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Mar 25, 2013 Confirmed at Caa1 (sf)

Issuer: IM Grupo Banco Popular Empresas 1, FTA

....EUR1135.8M Class A2 Notes, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

....EUR28.8M Class B Notes, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

....EUR27M Class C Notes, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

....EUR54.9M Class D Notes, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

Issuer: IM Grupo Banco Popular FTPYME I, FTA

....EUR150M Class A4 Notes, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

....EUR155.4M Class A5(G) Notes, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

....EUR30M Class B Notes, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

....EUR28M Class C Notes, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....EUR60M Class D Notes, Upgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 B2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

Issuer: IM Grupo Banco Popular FTPYME II, FTA

....EUR221.7M Class A3(G) Notes, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

....EUR47M Class B Notes, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....EUR23M Class C Notes, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....EUR45M Class D Notes, Upgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 B3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

Issuer: IM Grupo Banco Popular Empresas V, FTA

....EUR1987.5M Series A Notes, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....EUR662.5M Series B Notes, Upgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of these transactions in the past six months.

In rating these transactions, Moody's used a cash flow model to model cash flow stress scenarios to determine the extent to which investors would receive timely payments of interest and principal in the stress scenarios, given the transaction structure and collateral composition.

As the section on loss and cash flow analysis describes, Moody's quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody's weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Ludovic Thebault
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Carole Gintz
Senior Vice President/Manager
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Anne-Sophie Spirito
AVP - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Deutschland GmbH
An der Welle 5
Frankfurt am Main 60322
Germany
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's upgrades 10 notes in 5 Spanish SME ABS Transactions originated by Banco Popular Espanol
No Related Data.
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