New York, May 31, 2013 -- Moody's Investor Service has upgraded the ratings of three tranches
from two RMBS transactions, backed by Alt-A loans.
Complete rating actions are as follows:
Issuer: CWMBS, Inc. Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates,
Series 2003-J11
Cl. 3-A-2, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously
on Jun 13, 2012 Upgraded to Ba1 (sf)
Issuer: CWMBS, Inc. Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates,
Series 2004-4CB
Cl. 1-A-3, Upgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously
on Jun 13, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
Cl. 1-A-4, Upgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously
on Jun 13, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's rating actions on Class 1-A-3 and Class 1-A-4
from CWMBS, Inc. Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates,
Series 2004-4CB reflect a correction in Moody's analysis.
These classes are interest-only tranches with notional balances
and ratings linked to Class 1-A-2 and Class 1-A-1,
respectively. The rating actions taken on June 13, 2012 did
not accurately take this linkage into account. The error has been
corrected, and today's rating actions reflect this change.
The rating of Class 3-A-2 from CWMBS, Inc.
Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2003-J11
is being upgraded today due to its faster pace of amortization.
These actions also reflect recent performance of the underlying pools
and Moody's updated loss expectations on the pools.
The methodologies used in these ratings were "Moody's Approach to Rating
US Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities" published in December
2008, and "Pre-2005 US RMBS Surveillance Methodology" published
in January 2012. The methodology used in rating the Interest-Only
securities was "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only
Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy
page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's adjusts the methodologies noted above for 1) Moody's current view
on loan modifications and 2) small pool volatility.
Loan Modifications
As a result of an extension of the Home Affordable Modification Program
(HAMP) and an increased use of private modifications, Moody's is
extending its previous view that loan modifications will only occur through
the end of 2012. It is now assuming that the loan modifications
will continue at current levels until 2014.
Small Pool Volatility
The above RMBS approach only applies to structures with at least 40 loans
and pool factor of greater than 5%. Moody's can withdraw
its rating when the pool factor drops below 5% and the number of
loans in the deal declines to lower than 40. If, however,
a transaction has a specific structural feature, such as a credit
enhancement floor, that mitigates the risks of small pool size,
Moody's can choose to continue to rate the transaction. Please
refer further to Moody's Investors Service's Withdrawal Policy,
which can be found on our website, www.moodys.com.
For pools with loans less than 100, Moody's adjusts its projections
of loss to account for the higher loss volatility of such pools.
For small pools, a few loans becoming delinquent would greatly increase
the pools' delinquency rate.
To project losses on Alt-A pools with fewer than 100 loans,
Moody's first calculates an annualized delinquency rate based on vintage,
number of loans remaining in the pool and the level of current delinquencies
in the pool. For Alt-A pools, Moody's first applies
a baseline delinquency rate of 10% for 2004, 5% for
2003 and 3% for 2002 and prior. Once the loan count in a
pool falls below 76, this rate of delinquency is increased by 1%
for every loan fewer than 76. For example, for a 2004 pool
with 75 loans, the adjusted rate of new delinquency is 10.1%.
Further, to account for the actual rate of delinquencies in a small
pool, Moody's multiplies the rate calculated above by a factor ranging
from 0.50 to 2.0 for current delinquencies that range from
less than 2.5% to greater than 30% respectively.
Moody's then uses this final adjusted rate of new delinquency to project
delinquencies and losses for the remaining life of the pool under the
approach described in the methodology publication.
The primary source of assumption uncertainty is the uncertainty in our
central macroeconomic forecast and performance volatility due to servicer-related
issues. The unemployment rate fell from 8.1% in April
2012 to 7.5% in April 2013. Moody's forecasts an
unemployment central range of 7.0% to 8.0%
for the 2013 year. Moody's expects house prices to continue to
rise in 2013. Performance of RMBS continues to remain highly dependent
on servicer procedures. Any change resulting from servicing transfers
or other policy or regulatory change can impact the performance of these
transactions.
A list of these actions including CUSIP identifiers may be found at:
http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF330755
A list of updated estimated pool losses and sensitivity analysis is being
posted on an ongoing basis for the duration of this review period and
may be found at:
Excel: http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF237256
For more information please see www.moodys.com.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
Moody's received and took into account one or more third party assessments
on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial
instruments in these transactions and the assessments had a neutral impact
on the rating.
In conducting surveillance of these credits, Moody's considered
performance data contained in servicer and remittance reports.
Moody's obtains servicer reports on these transactions on a periodic basis,
at least annually.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
The person who approved CWMBS, Inc. Mortgage Pass-Through
Certificates, Series 2003-J11 credit ratings is Deepika Kothari,
Vice President - Senior Analyst/Manager, Structured Finance
Group, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., JOURNALISTS:
212-553-0376, SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653.
The person who approved CWMBS, Inc. Mortgage Pass-Through
Certificates, Series 2004-4CB credit ratings is Bruce D.
Fabrikant, Senior Vice President, Structured Finance Group,
Moody's Investors Service, Inc., JOURNALISTS:
212-553-0376, SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Soumya Vasudevan
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Bruce D. Fabrikant
Senior Vice President
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Deepika Kothari
Senior Analyst/Manager
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's upgrades $144,665 of Alt-A RMBS issued by CWMBS Series 2003-J11 and Series 2004-4CB