London, 13 June 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today upgraded the rating of three mezzanine
notes and confirmed the rating of one mezzanine note in the UK Non-Conforming
residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transaction RMAC
SECURITIES No. 1 PLC Series 2006-NS1. These rating
actions are prompted by collateral performance combined with Moody's
assessment of the action the swap counterparty, Royal Bank of Scotland
plc ("RBS" rated Baa1/P-2), is likely to take
in response to breaching a rating trigger.
Today's rating actions conclude the review of the ratings in this RMBS
transaction, which Moody's placed on review for upgrade and
direction uncertain in relation to improved collateral performance and
swap counterparty exposure respectively on the 7th of March 2014.
See towards the end of the ratings rationale section of this press release
for a detailed list of affected ratings.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's rating action reflects the impact of the improvement in collateral
performance and the impact on the transaction of its exposure to RBS as
its respective swap counterparty.
The class M2a and M2c notes in RMAC SECURITIES No. 1 PLC Series
2006-NS1 were placed on review for possible upgrade on the 7th
of March 2014 due to improved collateral performance (https://www.moodys.com/research/PR_294285).
Even though class M1a note was placed on review with direction uncertain,
the ratings of this note had also benefitted from this improvement in
collateral performance. As part of the same review, the MILAN
CE assumption for the deal was also decreased from 31% to 25%.
The long-term rating of RBS was downgraded to Baa1 from A3 on 13
March 2014 (https://www.moodys.com/research/PR_294433).
This resulted in a "ratings event" under the Swap Agreements. The
Swap Agreement contemplates several alternative remedial actions,
which are in each case broadly: (a) transferring the swap to an
appropriately rated third party, (b) obtaining a guarantee by an
appropriately rated guarantor, or (c) taking some other action such
that the downgrade of RBS does not have a negative rating impact on the
Notes.
Moody's assessment of the remedial action RBS is likely to take
in combination with the improved collateral performance has resulted in
the rating agency confirming and upgrading the ratings of the notes placed
on review in this transaction.
The rating action follows the introduction of the rating agency's updated
approach to assessing swap counterparty linkage in structured finance
cash flow transactions ("Approach to Assessing Swap Counterparties in
Structured Finance Cash Flow Transactions" published on the 12th November
2013).
As part of its review, Moody's has incorporated the risk of additional
losses on the notes in the event of them becoming unhedged following a
swap counterparty default.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating:
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings
affected by today's action would be the worse-than-expected
performance of the underlying collateral, deterioration in the credit
quality of the counterparties and an increase in sovereign risk.
In particular, the downgrade of RBS resulted in a "ratings event"
under the swap agreement, which will give rise to an additional
termination event unless RBS takes suitable remedial action. RBS's
decision to not take any remedial action could result in a downgrade.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings
affected by today's action would be the better-than-expected
performance of the underlying assets, and a decline in both counterparty
and sovereign risk. Following the "ratings event" under
the swap agreement, mentioned above, if RBS takes remedial
action resulting in a significant reduction in swap counterparty risk,
such as transfer to or guarantee from a highly rated entity, could
result in an upgrade.
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to
Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in March 2014.
Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for
a copy of this methodology.
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS:
Issuer: RMAC SECURITIES No. 1 PLC Series 2006-NS1
....GBP 30M Class M1a Notes, Upgraded
to Aa2 (sf); previously on Mar 7, 2014 A1 (sf) Placed Under
Review Direction Uncertain
....EUR 59M Class M1c Notes, Confirmed
at A1 (sf); previously on Mar 7, 2014 A1 (sf) Placed Under
Review Direction Uncertain
....GBP 23.25M Class M2a Notes,
Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Mar 7, 2014 Baa3 (sf)
Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
....EUR 20M Class M2c Notes, Upgraded
to Baa1 (sf); previously on Mar 7, 2014 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party
assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets
or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction
in the past six months.
The analysis relies on an assessment of collateral characteristics to
determine the collateral loss distribution, that is, the function
that correlates to an assumption about the likelihood of occurrence to
each level of possible losses in the collateral. As a second step,
Moody's evaluates each possible collateral loss scenario using a
model that replicates the relevant structural features to derive payments
and therefore the ultimate potential losses for each rated instrument.
The loss a rated instrument incurs in each collateral loss scenario,
weighted by assumptions about the likelihood of events in that scenario
occurring, results in the expected loss of the rated instrument.
As the section on loss and cash flow analysis describes, Moody's
quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors
contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood
of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody's
weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of
the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Kevin Ma
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Annabel Schaafsma
Associate Managing Director
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Ali Khan
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's upgrades 3 notes and confirms 1 note in the UK Non-Conforming RMBS transaction: RMAC SECURITIES No. 1 PLC Series 2006-NS1