London, 02 October 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has today upgraded the ratings of 4 notes and
confirmed the ratings of 3 notes in 3 Spanish residential mortgage-backed
securities (RMBS) transactions: IM Banco Popular MBS 2, FTA,
IM Caja Laboral 1, FTA and IM Caja Laboral 2, FTA.
Today's rating action concludes the review of 6 notes placed on review
on 17 March 2014, following the upgrade of the Spanish sovereign
rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and the resulting increase of the local-currency
country ceiling to A1 from A3 (http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PR_292078).
The sovereign rating upgrade reflected improvements in institutional strength
and reduced susceptibility to event risk associated with lower government
liquidity and banking sector risks.
Please refer to the end of the Ratings Rationale section for a list of
affected ratings.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's rating action reflects (1) the increase in the Spanish local-currency
country ceiling to A1 and (2) sufficiency of credit enhancement in the
affected transactions.
Today's rating action also reflects the correction of a model input
error. In prior rating actions, the recovery rate input in
the model was inconsistent with the MILAN input, therefore the tail
of the asset loss distribution was generated incorrectly. The model
has now been adjusted, and today's rating action reflects
this change.
-- Reduced Sovereign Risk
The Spanish sovereign rating was upgraded to Baa2 in February 2014,
which resulted in an increase in the local-currency country ceiling
to A1. The Spanish country ceiling, and therefore the maximum
rating that Moody's will assign to a domestic Spanish issuer including
structured finance transactions backed by Spanish receivables, is
A1(sf).
The sufficiency of credit enhancement combined with stable performance
and the reduction in sovereign risk has prompted the upgrade of the notes.
-- Key collateral assumptions
Moody's has reassessed its lifetime loss expectation for IM Banco Popular
MBS 2, FTA, taking into account the collateral performance
of the transactions to date. The portfolio shows improving growth
rate in delinquencies. The 90 days delinquencies as a percentage
of the original pool balance reached 1.29% versus 1.95%
in September 2013. As a result, Moody's reduced its key expected
loss assumption to 4.5%, down from 6% of the
original pool balance respectively. Other key collateral assumptions
have not been updated as part of this review. The performance of
the underlying asset portfolios remain in line with Moody's assumptions
for IM Caja Laboral 1, FTA and IM Caja Laboral 2, FTA.
Moody's also has a stable outlook (http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF373727)
for Spanish ABS and RMBS transactions.
-- Exposure to Counterparties
Moody's rating analysis also took into consideration the exposure to key
transaction counterparties, including the roles of servicer,
account bank and swap provider.
The conclusion of today's rating review reflects the exposure to
BNP Paribas Securities Services (A1/P-1) as account bank for all
three transactions, Banco Popular Espanol, S.A.
(Ba3/NP) and, respectively Caja Laboral Popular Coop. de
Credito (Ba1/NP) as servicer for IM Banco Popular MBS 2, FTA and,
respectively IM Caja Laboral 1, FTA, IM Caja Laboral 2,
FTA.
Today's rating action takes into account commingling exposure to
the servicer.
Moody's also assessed the exposure to Banco Popular Espanol,
S.A. (Ba3/NP), Banco Santander S.A.
(Spain) (Baa1/P-2) and, respectively Caja Laboral Popular
Coop. de Credito (Ba1/NP) acting as swap counterparty when revising
ratings of IM Banco Popular MBS 2, FTA, IM Caja Laboral 1,
FTA and, respectively IM Caja Laboral 2, FTA.
Principal Methodology
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach
to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in March 2014.
Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for
a copy of this methodology.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating:
Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings
include (1) further reduction in sovereign risk, (2) performance
of the underlying collateral that is better than Moody's expected,
(3) deleveraging of the capital structure and (4) improvements in the
credit quality of the transaction counterparties.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings
include (1) an increase in sovereign risk, (2) performance of the
underlying collateral that is worse than Moody's expects, (3) deterioration
in the notes' available credit enhancement and (4) deterioration in the
credit quality of the transaction counterparties.
List of Affected Ratings:
Issuer: IM CAJA LABORAL 1 FONDO DE TITULIZACIÓN DE ACTIVOS
....EUR856.3M Class A Notes,
Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 A3 (sf) Placed
Under Review for Possible Upgrade
....EUR10.8M Class B Notes, Confirmed
at Baa3 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
....EUR14.9M Class C Notes, Confirmed
at Ba2 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Ba2 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
....EUR18M Class D Notes, Confirmed
at B2 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 B2 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
Issuer: IM BANCO POPULAR MBS 2, FTA
....EUR596M Class A Notes, Upgraded
to A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 A3 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
....EUR89M Class B Notes, Upgraded to
B1 (sf); previously on Mar 12, 2010 Definitive Rating Assigned
Caa1 (sf)
Issuer: IM CAJA LABORAL 2, FONDO DE TITULIZACIÓN DE
ACTIVOS
....EUR524.4M Class A Notes,
Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Mar 17, 2014 Baa1 (sf) Placed
Under Review for Possible Upgrade
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party
assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets
or financial instruments related to the monitoring of these transactions
in the past six months.
The analysis relies on an assessment of collateral characteristics to
determine the collateral loss distribution, that is, the function
that correlates to an assumption about the likelihood of occurrence to
each level of possible losses in the collateral. As a second step,
Moody's evaluates each possible collateral loss scenario using a
model that replicates the relevant structural features to derive payments
and therefore the ultimate potential losses for each rated instrument.
The loss a rated instrument incurs in each collateral loss scenario,
weighted by assumptions about the likelihood of events in that scenario
occurring, results in the expected loss of the rated instrument.
As the section on loss and cash flow analysis describes, Moody's
quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors
contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood
of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody's
weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of
the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
The below contact information is provided for information purposes only.
Please see the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com,
for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the
lead analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued the ratings.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Christophe Larpin
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Christophe de Noaillat
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's upgrades 4 notes in 3 IM Banco Popular and IM Caja Laboral Spanish RMBS Transactions
