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Rating Action:

Moody's upgrades Air Canada's CFR to Ba1, outlook stable

24 Sep 2019

Toronto, September 24, 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") upgraded Air Canada's Corporate Family Rating (CFR) to Ba1 from Ba2, Probability of Default rating to Ba1-PD from Ba2-PD, first lien senior secured rating to Baa3 from Ba1 and senior unsecured rating to Ba2 from Ba3. The company's Speculative Grade Liquidity rating remains unchanged at SGL-2. Moody's rates eight tranches of enhanced equipment trust certificates (EETCs) across three Air Canada EETC transactions, Series 2013-1, Series 2015-2 and Series 2017-1. Moody's upgraded all eight of the tranches by one notch. The outlooks for Air Canada and its Pass Through Trust Certificates remain stable.

"The upgrade reflects Air Canada's stronger financial profile, whereby the company has continued to reduce leverage and has strengthened its flexibility with the acquisition of the Aeroplan program and increased the number of unencumbered planes it owns," said Jamie Koutsoukis, Moody's Vice President, Senior Analyst.

Upgrades:

..Issuer: Air Canada

.... Corporate Family Rating, Upgraded to Ba1 from Ba2

.... Probability of Default Rating, Upgraded to Ba1-PD from Ba2-PD

....Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Upgraded to Baa3 (LGD2) from Ba1 (LGD2)

....Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture, Upgraded to Baa3 (LGD2) from Ba1 (LGD2)

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Upgraded to Ba2 (LGD5) from Ba3 (LGD5)

..Issuer: Air Canada 2013-1 Pass Through Trusts

....Senior Secured Enhanced Equipment Trust CI. A, Upgraded to A3 from Baa1

....Senior Secured Enhanced Equipment Trust CI. B, Upgraded to Baa2 from Baa3

..Issuer: Air Canada Series 2015-2 Pass Through Trusts

....Senior Secured Enhanced Equipment Trust CI. A, Upgraded to A1 from A2

....Senior Secured Enhanced Equipment Trust CI. AA, Upgraded to Aa2 from Aa3

....Senior Secured Enhanced Equipment Trust CI. B, Upgraded to Baa1 from Baa2

..Issuer: Air Canada Series 2017-1 Pass Through Trusts

....Senior Secured Enhanced Equipment Trust CI. A, Upgraded to A1 from A2

....Senior Secured Enhanced Equipment Trust CI. AA, Upgraded to Aa2 from Aa3

....Senior Secured Enhanced Equipment Trust CI. B, Upgraded to Baa1 from Baa2

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: Air Canada

....Outlook, Remains Stable

..Issuer: Air Canada 2013-1 Pass Through Trusts

....Outlook, Remains Stable

..Issuer: Air Canada Series 2015-2 Pass Through Trusts

....Outlook, Remains Stable

..Issuer: Air Canada Series 2017-1 Pass Through Trusts

....Outlook, Remains Stable

RATINGS RATIONALE

Air Canada's Ba1 rating benefits from 1) its leading position in the duopolistic Canadian market, 2) Moody's expectation that adjusted debt/EBITDA will approach 2.5x by the end of 2020, 3) an expected reduction in capacity growth as Air Canada shifts from wide-body additions to mainline narrow-body fleet replacement over the medium term (available seat miles (ASM) increased 9.5% in 2018),and 4) good liquidity with expectations of ongoing free cash flow. Air Canada is constrained by 1) the risk of market capacity additions exceeding demand and its international network facing sustained competitive pressure, 2) foreign exchange volatility, 3) exposure to fuel costs, 4) uncertainty regarding the 737 MAX grounding.

The airline sector currently accounts for about 2% of global carbon emissions with 65% of its emissions coming from international flights. Canada (and as a result Air Canada) is one of the 70 countries that have voluntarily elected to early adopt the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), which targets capping carbon emissions at 2020 levels and requires purchases of offsets for airlines' that exceed their targets. We expect that fuel expense will increase for carbon offset costs incurred from 2021.

Air Canada's management has made it a priority to position itself to be more resilient to economic downturns through the strengthening of its financial profile. Air Canada has a stated leverage policy (net debt to trailing 12-month EBITDA) of no more than 1.2x and management has a strong track record regarding its adherence to its stated financial policies.

Air Canada has good liquidity (SGL-2), supported by CAD6.0 billion of cash and short-term investments at June 30, 2019 and a US$600 million unused revolving credit facility due in 2023. We also expect Air Canada to generate about CAD200 million of positive free cash flow in the next four quarters. These sources are more than sufficient to fund mandatory annual debt and lease repayments of CAD523 million for the remainder of 2019 and CAD1.2 billion in 2020. Air Canada has flexibility to raise capital from asset sales to boost liquidity should the need arise, and this will improve further with the company's plan to increase the number of aircraft that are unencumbered.

Moody's rates eight tranches of enhanced equipment trust certificates (EETCs) across three Air Canada EETC transactions, Series 2013-1, Series 2015-2 and Series 2017-1. Moody's upgraded the rating of each of these tranches by one notch, in line with the one-notch upgrade of the Corporate Family rating. The upgrades consider the improvement in the credit quality of Air Canada and Moody's belief of the importance of the aircraft models that comprise the collateral of each transaction to Air Canada's network. The respective loan-to-value of each tranche supports the respective rating assignments. Moody's projects future values of the 737 MAX, the 777-300ER and the 787-9 using annual rates of decline on a straight line basis of 4%, 6% and 5%, respectively and a 1% annual inflation rate.

The 2013-1 transaction is secured by five 777-300ERs. The 6% annual rate of decline implies a 16-year life for this model, which results in a conservative loan-to-value. Moody's estimates the peak LTVs of the Class A (rated A3) and Class B (rated Baa2) at about 75% and 87%, respectively, which occur within six months of the final scheduled payment dates of May 15, 2025 and May 15, 2021.

The 2015-2 transaction is secured by two 777-300ERs and three 787-9s. Moody's estimates the peak LTVs of the Class AA (rated Aa2), Class A (rated A1) and Class B (rated Baa1) at about 45%, 65% and 75%, respectively. These too occur near the scheduled final payment dates of December 15, 2027 for the Class AA and Class A and December 15, 2023 for the Class B.

The 2017-1 transaction is secured by nine 737 MAX 8s and four 787-9s. Moody's anticipates that the 737 MAX will return to service in a timeframe that will not lead to undue pressure on its market value. Moody's estimates the peak LTVs of the Class AA (rated Aa2), Class A (rated A1) and Class B (rated Baa1) at about 40%, 56% and 69%, respectively. These occur at the front end of the remaining amortization for each tranche. The scheduled final payment dates are January 15, 2030 for the Class AA and Class A and January 15, 2026 for the Class B.

The ratings of the EETCs reflect Moody's belief that Air Canada would retain the aircraft in each transaction under a reorganization scenario because of the importance of these models to the fleet strategy and the long-haul network over the remaining lives of each transaction, their relatively young ages and fuel efficiency. Any combination of future changes in the underlying credit quality or ratings of Air Canada, unexpected material declines in the current or projected market value of the aircraft and/or an unexpected significant reduction in the size of Air Canada's long haul network could lead to further changes to the ratings of Air Canada's EETCs.

The stable outlooks reflect Moody's expectation that Air Canada will maintain its competitive position and maintain leverage at or below 3x as it spends on its aircraft replacement program. It also incorporates Moody's view that Air Canada will continue to make strengthening its financial position over shareholder returns a priority.

An upgrade could occur if Air Canada is able to reduce and sustain adjusted leverage below 2.5x (3.1x LTM Jun 2019) , and (FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest remains above 8x (9.1x LTM Jun 2019). Air Canada would additionally need to demonstrate its ability to maintain an EBIT margin above 10% through a downturn in the market (9% LTM Jun 2019). An upgrade would also require that the company continue to generate positive free cash flow as it proceeds with its new narrow body fleet purchases.

Downward rating pressure could occur if Air Canada's adjusted debt/EBITDA is sustained above 3.5 x and (FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest falls towards 6x (Adjusted debt/EBITDA was 3.1x, (FFO + Interest Expense) / Interest was 9.1x LTM Jun 2019). Deterioration in EBIT margins below 7% ( 9% LTM Jun 2019) could also cause a downgrade.

The principal methodology used in rating Air Canada was Passenger Airline Industry published April 2018. The principal methodologies used in rating Air Canada 2013-1 Pass Through Trusts, Air Canada Series 2015-2 Pass Through Trusts and Air Canada Series 2017-1 Pass Through Trusts were Passenger Airline Industry published in April 2018 and Enhanced Equipment Trust and Equipment Trust Certificates published in July 2018. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Air Canada is the largest provider of scheduled airline passenger services within, and to and from Canada. Revenue in 2018 was CAD18.1 billion. The company is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Quebec, Canada.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

The below contact information is provided for information purposes only. Please see the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com, for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the lead rating analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued the ratings.

The person who approved Air Canada credit ratings is Donald S. Carter, CFA, MD - Corporate Finance, Corporate Finance Group, JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376, Client Service: 1 212 553 1653. The person who approved Air Canada 2013-1 Pass Through Trusts, Air Canada Series 2015-2 Pass Through Trusts, Air Canada Series 2017-1 Pass Through Trusts credit ratings is Russell Solomon, Associate Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376, Client Service: 1 212 553 1653.

The relevant office for each credit rating is identified in "Debt/deal box" on the Ratings tab in the Debt/Deal List section of each issuer/entity page of the website.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Jamie Koutsoukis
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Canada Inc.
70 York Street
Suite 1400
Toronto, ON M5J 1S9
Canada
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Donald S. Carter, CFA
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Canada Inc.
70 York Street
Suite 1400
Toronto, ON M5J 1S9
Canada
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

No Related Data.
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