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Rating Action:

Moody's upgrades AmeriCredit subprime auto loan ABS from 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013

Global Credit Research - 17 Jan 2014

Approximately $4.1 billion of asset-backed securities affected

New York, January 17, 2014 -- Moody's Investor Services has upgraded 16 tranches, and affirmed 39 tranches from securitizations sponsored by AmeriCredit Financial Services, Inc (AmeriCredit) between 2010 and 2013.

The complete rating actions as follow:

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2010-1

Cl. C, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. D, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aa1 (sf)

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2010-2

Cl. C, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. D, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)

Cl. E, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Confirmed at A1 (sf)

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2010-3

Cl. B, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. C, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. D, Affirmed Aa1 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aa1 (sf)

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2010-4

Cl. B, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. C, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. D, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)

Cl. E, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2010-A

Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Underlying Rating: Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Financial Guarantor: Assured Guaranty Corp (Downgraded to A3, Outlook Stable on Jan 17, 2013)

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2010-B

Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Underlying Rating: Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Financial Guarantor: Assured Guaranty Corp (Downgraded to A3, Outlook Stable on Jan 17, 2013)

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2011-1

Cl. B, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. C, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. D, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aa1 (sf)

Cl. E, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2011-2

Cl. B, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. C, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. D, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aa1 (sf)

Cl. E, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2011-3

Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. B, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. C, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. D, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aa1 (sf)

Cl. E, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2011-5

Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. B, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)

Cl. C, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)

Cl. D, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

Cl. E, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Baa1 (sf)

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2012-1

Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. B, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)

Cl. C., Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)

Cl. D, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

Cl. E, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Baa1 (sf)

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2012-2

Cl. A-2, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. B, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)

Cl. C, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)

Cl. D, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

Cl. E., Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Baa1 (sf)

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2012-3

Cl. A-2, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)

Cl. B, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)

Cl. C, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)

Cl. D, Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to A1 (sf)

Cl. E, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Aug 5, 2013 Upgraded to Baa1 (sf)

Issuer: AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2013-3

Cl. A-2, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jun 24, 2013 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jun 24, 2013 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

Cl. B, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Jun 24, 2013 Definitive Rating Assigned Aa1 (sf)

Cl. C, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Jun 24, 2013 Definitive Rating Assigned Aa3 (sf)

Cl. D, Affirmed Baa1 (sf); previously on Jun 24, 2013 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa1 (sf)

Cl. E, Affirmed Ba1 (sf); previously on Jun 24, 2013 Definitive Rating Assigned Ba1 (sf)

RATINGS RATIONALE

The cumulative lifetime net loss expectations on 2010 transactions remain unchanged from prior review while those on 2011 and 2012 transactions were increased marginally. However, all transactions benefit from build-up of credit enhancement relative to remaining losses due to the sequential pay structure and non-declining reserve account, resulting in rating upgrades on mezzanine and junior bonds. The junior securities receive limited benefit because the target credit enhancement is a percentage of the outstanding pool balance until it reaches a floor, and is a combination of over-collateralization, which declines until it reaches its floor of 0.50%, and a non-declining reserve account. The combined target credit enhancement levels range from15.25% to 23.25% for the early 2010 transactions. These target levels declined to 14.75% for late 2010 to early 2012 transactions and further declined to 14.25% for late 2012 and 2013 transactions.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach to Rating Auto Loan-Backed ABS" published in May 2013. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Below are key performance metrics (as of the January 2014 distribution date) and credit assumptions for each affected transaction. Credit assumptions include Moody's expected lifetime CNL expected range/loss which is expressed as a percentage of the original pool balance; Moody's lifetime remaining CNL expectation and Moody's Aaa (sf) level which are expressed as a percentage of the current pool balance. The Aaa level is the level of credit enhancement that would be consistent with a Aaa (sf) rating for the given asset pool. Performance metrics include pool factor which is the ratio of the current collateral balance to the original collateral balance at closing; total credit enhancement, which typically consists of subordination, overcollateralization, and a reserve fund; and per annum excess spread.

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2010-1

Lifetime CNL expectation - 6.50%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 4.10%

Aaa (sf) level - 28.0%

Pool factor - 13.26%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. C 71.65%, Cl. D 26.40%

Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 9.3%

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2010-2

Lifetime CNL expectation - 6.00%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 4.89%

Aaa (sf) level - 28.00%

Pool factor - 16.39%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. C 86.93%, Cl. D 28.98%, Cl. E 15.25%

Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 7.7%

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2010-3

Lifetime CNL expectation - 6.00%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 5.13%

Aaa (sf) level - 28.00%

Pool factor - 23.95%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. B 99.99%, Cl. C 58.03%, Cl. D 19.20%

Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 8.9%

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2010-4

Lifetime CNL expectation - 6.00%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 5.69%

Aaa (sf) level - 28.00%

Pool factor - 21.95%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. B 106.78%, Cl. C 65.78%, Cl. D 25.46%, Cl. E 14.75%

Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 9.0%

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2010-A

Lifetime CNL expectation - 7.50%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 4.23%

Aaa (sf) level - 30.00%

Pool factor - 15.82%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. A-3 33.14%

Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 11.1%

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2010-B

Lifetime CNL expectation - 6.00%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 4.16%

Aaa (sf) level - 28.00%

Pool factor - 20.95%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. A-3 30.05%

Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 10.6%

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2011-1

Lifetime CNL expectation - 6.00%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 5.83%

Aaa (sf) level - 28.00%

Pool factor - 27.81%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. B 87.39%, Cl. C 55.02%, Cl. D 23.20%, Cl. E 14.75%

Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 8.7%

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2011-2

Lifetime CNL expectation - 6.50%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 5.93%

Aaa (sf) level - 30.00%

Pool factor - 27.78%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. B 87.46%, Cl. C 55.06%, Cl. D 23.21%, Cl. E 14.75%

Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 8.6%

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2011-3

Lifetime CNL expectation - 6.50%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 5.09%

Aaa (sf) level - 30.00%

Pool factor - 32.83%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. A-3 98.36%, Cl. B 76.28%, Cl. C 48.86%, Cl. D 21.91%, Cl. E 14.75%

Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 8.6%

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2011-5

Lifetime CNL expectation - 8.00%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 7.50%

Aaa (sf) level - 32.00%

Pool factor - 42.37%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. A-3 79.54%, Cl. B 62.42%, Cl. C 41.18%, Cl. D 20.29%, Cl. E 14.75%

Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 7.9%

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2012-1

Lifetime CNL expectation - 8.00%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 8.06%

Aaa (sf) level - 32.00%

Pool factor - 44.27%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. A-3 76.76%, Cl. B 60.38%, Cl. D 20.06%, Cl. E 14.75%, Cl. C. 40.05%

Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 8.6%

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2012-2

Lifetime CNL expectation - 8.00%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 7.73%

Aaa (sf) level - 32.00%

Pool factor - 49.18%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. A 70.57%, Cl. B 55.82%, Cl. C 37.52%, Cl. D 19.53%, Cl. E. 14.75%

Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 9.6%

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2012-3

Lifetime CNL expectation - 8.00%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 7.81%

Aaa (sf) level - 32.00%

Pool factor - 54.65%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. A 64.48%, Cl. B 51.21%, Cl. C 34.74%, Cl. D 18.55%, Cl. E 14.25%

Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 9.2%

Issuer - AmeriCredit Automobile Receivables Trust 2013-3

Lifetime CNL expectation - 10.00%

Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation - 10.39%

Aaa (sf) level - 38.00%

Pool factor - 88.04%

Total Hard credit enhancement - Cl. A 44.11%, Cl. B 35.87%, Cl. C 25.66%, Cl. D 15.61%, Cl. E 12.93%

Excess Spread per annum -- Approximately 8.8%

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating

Levels of credit protection that are greater than necessary to protect investors against current expectations of loss could lead to an upgrade of the rating. Moody's current expectations of loss may be better than its original expectations because of lower frequency of default by the underlying obligors or appreciation in the value of the vehicles that secure the obligor's promise of payment. The US job market and the market for used vehicle are primary drivers of performance. Other reasons for better performance than Moody's expected include changes in servicing practices to maximize collections on the loans or refinancing opportunities that result in a prepayment of the loan.

Levels of credit protection that are insufficient to protect investors against current expectations of loss could lead to a downgrade of the ratings. Moody's current expectations of loss may be worse than its original expectations because of higher frequency of default by the underlying obligors of the loans or a deterioration in the value of the vehicles that secure the obligor's promise of payment. The US job market and the market for used vehicle are primary drivers of performance. Other reasons for worse performance than Moody's expected include poor servicing, error on the part of transaction parties, lack of transactional governance and fraud.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of these transactions in the past six months.

The analysis includes an assessment of collateral characteristics and performance to determine the expected collateral loss or a range of expected collateral losses or cash flows to the rated instruments. As a second step, Moody's estimates expected collateral losses or cash flows using a quantitative tool that takes into account credit enhancement, loss allocation and other structural features, to derive the expected loss for each rated instrument.

As the section on loss and cash flow analysis describes, Moody's quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody's weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Yashasvini N Kasetty
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Eric Fellows
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653

Moody's upgrades AmeriCredit subprime auto loan ABS from 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013
No Related Data.

 

© 2014 Moody's Corporation, Moody's Investors Service, Inc., Moody's Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.

 


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