Toronto, July 15, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") upgraded
Baffinland Iron Mines Corporation's (Baffinland) corporate family rating
(CFR) to B3 from Caa1, its probability of default rating (PDR) to
B3-PD from Caa1-PD, senior secured revolving credit
facility rating to Ba3 from B2 and its senior secured notes rating to
B3 from Caa1. The ratings outlook remains stable.
"The upgrade reflects Baffinland's strengthened free cash flow generation
and reduction in leverage that has been aided by strong commodity prices"
said Jamie Koutsoukis, Vice President, Moody's analyst.
The following rating actions were taken:
Upgrades:
..Issuer: Baffinland Iron Mines Corporation
.... Probability of Default Rating,
Upgraded to B3-PD from Caa1-PD
.... Corporate Family Rating, Upgraded
to B3 from Caa1
....Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility,
Upgraded to Ba3 (LGD1) from B2 (LGD2)
....Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture,
Upgraded to B3 (LGD4) from Caa1 (LGD4)
Outlook Actions:
..Issuer: Baffinland Iron Mines Corporation
....Outlook, Remains Stable
RATINGS RATIONALE
Baffinland's credit profile (B3 CFR) is constrained by 1) a concentration
of cash flow from one metal (iron ore), which has volatile pricing,
2) a small single mine (about 6 million wet metric tonnes (wmt)) in a
remote location above the Arctic circle (northern Baffin Island,
3) shipping constraints due to ice that limit transporting iron ore between
late May/early June to late September/late October, and 4) execution
risk on the planned mine expansion (including delays in receiving approval
for its rail expansion from the Nunavut Planning Commission). The
company benefits from 1) the high grade ore body of the mine, 2)
low complexity of the mine operations, 3) the mine's location in
Canada's Nunavut Territory, a politically stable mining region,
and 4) low leverage and strong free cash flow expected over the rating
horizon.
The Ba3 rating on the company's senior secured revolving credit facility,
three notches above the B3 CFR, reflects structural superiority
to the company's senior secured notes, in accordance with
Moody's loss-given-default methodology.
Baffinland has good liquidity. The company had $155 million
of cash as of Q1/2021 and Moody's expects that the company will
generate free cash flow in excess of $350 million in 2021,
as spending on its phased expansion is limited until regulatory approval
is received. We do not consider the $188 million of availability
from Baffinland's $212 million revolving credit facility,
as it matures in less than 12 months (May 2022). The company's
$575 million notes are not due until July 2026.
The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the company will generate
positive free cash flow from its existing operations, strengthen
its liquidity position and that it will not spend meaningfully on its
rail expansion project unless it receives regulatory approval.
It also incorporates our view that Baffinland will not commit to expansion
capital expenditures before funding is committed and it will adjust or
slow capital spending should market conditions deteriorate.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Upward rating pressure would require that Baffinland provide clarity regarding
its rail expansion project (whether it will proceed, funding,
timing), and should it move forward with its development,
have sufficient liquidity to mitigate commodity price volatility and project
spending risk. An upgrade would also require that adjusted debt
to EBITDA to be sustained below 3x (2.7x LTM Mar/21).
The ratings could be downgraded if Baffinland experiences any significant
operational difficulties, adverse iron ore market conditions,
or its existing operations were unable to fund its operating and interest
expenses. The company could also be downgraded if leverage exceeds
5x (2.7x LTM Mar/21).
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Mining published in
September 2018 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1089739.
Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
Baffinland is a privately held company that owns the Mary River iron ore
mine at the northern end of Baffin Island in the Nunavut Territory,
Canada. All its common shares are all owned by Nunavut Iron Ore,
Inc. ("NIO"). NIO is owned by the Energy &
Minerals Group and ArcelorMittal Canada Inc. (previously AMMC Baffinland
Holdco Inc.). Finished ore production in 2020 was 6.0
million wmt and revenues were $772 million.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's
Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
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The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was
issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed
by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt
am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph
3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies.
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Jamie Koutsoukis
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Canada Inc.
70 York Street
Suite 1400
Toronto, ON M5J 1S9
Canada
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Donald S. Carter, CFA
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
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