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Rating Action:

Moody's upgrades Bank of Cyprus' and Hellenic Bank's deposit ratings to B3, with positive outlooks

24 Jan 2019

Limassol, January 24, 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today upgraded Bank of Cyprus Public Company Limited's (Bank of Cyprus) and Hellenic Bank Public Company Ltd's (Hellenic Bank) long-term deposit ratings to B3 from Caa1, and their long-term Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs) to B1 from B2. At the same time, Hellenic Bank's baseline credit assessment (BCA) and adjusted BCA were upgraded to caa1 from caa2, and its long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment (CRA) to B1(cr) from B2(cr). The outlook on both banks' long-term deposit ratings is positive. All other ratings and assessments of the two banks have been affirmed at their current level.

The rating action concludes the review for upgrade on Hellenic bank's ratings that was initiated on 13 July 2018. A full list of affected ratings can be found at the end of this press release.

The upgrade of Bank of Cyprus' ratings is driven by changes in the bank's liability structure. In particular, the issuance of EUR220 million of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) securities in December 2018, enhances the buffers that are available to protect depositors and non-debt counterparty financial liabilities captured by the CRR.

The upgrade of Hellenic Bank captures its strengthened franchise, asset quality and capital following (1) the integration of EUR9.3 billion of predominantly performing assets and liabilities, mainly deposits, acquired in the summer from the now resolved Cyprus Cooperative Bank Ltd (CCB), and (2) a capital increase of EUR150 million, for which the bank has already received binding commitments and which will be completed in the first quarter of 2019. Hellenic Bank's deposit ratings continue to benefit from one notch of rating uplift following the acquisition of, predominantly, retail deposits and the application of Moody's advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis.

For both banks the positive outlook assigned reflects Moody's expectations of further improvements in the banks' financial fundamentals, mainly asset quality over the next 12-18 months, in the context of an improved operating environment in Cyprus.

The rating actions incorporate the improvements in the operating environment which have prompted the rating agency to raise the Macro Profile for banks operating in Cyprus by one notch to "Weak+", from "Weak".

RATINGS RATIONALE

IMPROVING OPERATING ENVIRONMENT IN CYPRUS WILL SUPPORT BANKS

Today's rating actions incorporate improvements in the operating environment, reflected by Moody's improved assessment of Cyprus' economic strength and overall Macro Profile score to "Weak+", from "Weak". The rating agency expects strong growth trends with a 3.7% growth in real GDP for 2019, a rate significantly above the average forecast for euro area countries of 1.8%, and a continued decline in unemployment that stood at 9.2% as of November 2018. Cyprus has registered one of the sharpest declines in unemployment amongst EU countries since 2013. The improvements in economic conditions raise loan demand by local businesses and households, strengthen repayment capacity, and support asset values benefiting banks' revenues and bad loan recoveries.

BANK OF CYPRUS

The upgrade of Bank of Cyprus' long-term deposit ratings to B3 from Caa1, and its long-term CRR to B1 from B2, is driven by changes in the bank's liability structure. More specifically, the issuance of EUR220 million of AT1 securities in December 2018 enhances the buffer available to contain any losses that would be shared by depositors and non-debt counterparty financial liabilities captured by the CRR. For deposits this leads to a one notch uplift above the adjusted BCA of caa1, from no uplift previously, and for the CRR this leads to a three notch uplift above the adjusted BCA, from two notches previously.

The affirmation of Bank of Cyprus' senior unsecured and Tier 2 Capital Notes ratings reflects Moody's view that the additional buffers provided by the AT1 are already factored into the current rating levels.

The positive outlook on Bank of Cyprus' deposit ratings captures Moody's expectations of further improvements in asset quality, against the backdrop of an improving operating environment over the next 12-18 months, that will help to gradually reduce the current vulnerability of its capital buffers and profitability to potentially higher provisioning losses on the stock of existing NPEs. A material reduction of NPEs and improvement in the provisioning levels, while maintaining capital buffers above their current level, will be required for the bank to achieve a higher rating.

The positive outlook also acknowledges recent improvement in Bank of Cyprus' financial fundamentals. Nonperforming exposures (NPEs) declined to 37% of gross loans as of September 2018, from 47% in December 2017, following the securitisation of a portfolio of NPEs in August 2018 that will likely be completed in the first quarter of 2019. The bank's capital is also strengthening, following the bank's issuance of AT1 securities in December 2018 and contingent on the regulator's approval of a reduction in its risk-weighted assets, following the NPE securitisation. The bank's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio will strengthen to 13.2%, from 11.9% as of the end of September 2018, while its Total Capital Adequacy ratio will strengthen to 16.2%, from 13.4% as of September.

HELLENIC BANK

The upgrade of Hellenic Bank's long-term deposit ratings to B3 from Caa1, its long-term CRRs to B1 from B2, and its long-term CRA to B1(cr) from B2(cr), captures the upgrade of its BCA and adjusted BCA to caa1 from caa2. The stronger BCA reflects its strengthened franchise, asset quality and capital following (1) the integration of EUR9.3 billion of predominantly performing assets and liabilities, mainly deposits, acquired from CCB, and (2) a capital increase which will be completed in the first quarter of 2019.

Hellenic Bank's acquisition has strengthened its franchise and asset quality. Following the integration, it has become the second-largest bank in Cyprus, with around 31% market share of system deposits and is now the largest retail and SME bank. Hellenic Bank's deposit mix has shifted and the bank is now predominantly retail deposit funded, which supports the sustainability of its deposit franchise. Hellenic Bank's asset quality has also improved on a relative basis, following the acquisition of primarily performing loans from CCB, with NPEs-to-gross loans improving to 31% as of the end of September 2018, from 52% as of June 2018. NPEs drop to 25.6% of gross loans excluding €441 million of nonperforming loans that are guaranteed by the government, while the provisioning coverage improves to 66%, from 62% as of June 2018.

The upgrade also reflects stronger capital, as pro-forma CET1 capital will increase above 18% after the EUR150 million planned capital raise, which will be completed in the first quarter of 2019. The full capital increase has already been partly committed and partly underwritten.

Hellenic Bank's long-term deposit ratings continue to benefit from one notch of rating uplift from the bank's adjusted BCA of caa1, following the application of Moody's advanced LGF analysis. Though the percentage of junior, more loss absorbing corporate deposits, has declined following the acquisition of, predominantly, retail deposits, the pool of junior deposits remains significant enough to contain any losses that would be shared by depositors, lifting the deposit ratings by one notch. Similarly, Hellenic Bank's long-term CRR and CRA continue to benefit from three notches of rating uplift from the bank's adjusted BCA of caa1, following the application of Moody's advanced LGF analysis. Given the change in Hellenic's deposit composition, the rating agency has reverted to the standard LGF assumptions used for all European banks.

The positive outlook on Hellenic Bank's deposit ratings reflects Moody's expectations of further improvements in the bank's financial fundamentals, mainly its asset quality over the next 12-18 months in the context of the improved operating environment and the bank's strengthened capital, which provide more flexibility to reduce NPEs through write-offs and sales. Hellenic Bank's profitability will also benefit from a higher earning capacity and improved efficiency -- amid revenue and cost synergies from its larger client base, cross-selling opportunities, economies of scale and branch/staff network rationalisation - if the bank effectively manages risks related to new staff integration and retention of newly acquired customers, while ensuring that its pre-existing business does not suffer.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN

The banks' ratings could be upgraded if there is further material improvement in their asset quality, with a reduction of NPEs and improvement in the provisioning levels, while they maintain and further improve their current capital buffers. The banks' ratings could also be upgraded following changes to their liability structure which would result in a larger loss absorption cushion to depositors and other relevant creditors.

The positive outlook on the banks' deposit ratings may be changed to stable if the improvement in their asset quality decelerates or if there is a need for additional material provisions against the stock of problem loans, denting the banks' capital buffers. The ratings could be downgraded following changes in the banks' liability structure which would reduce the loss absorbing cushion to depositors and other relevant creditors.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published in August 2018. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Issuer: Bank of Cyprus Public Company Limited

..Upgrades:

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating Upgraded to B1 from B2

....Long-term Bank Deposit Rating, Upgraded to B3 from Caa1, Outlook Remains Positive

..Affirmations:

.... Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment , Affirmed caa1

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Affirmed caa1

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed B1(cr)

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed NP(cr)

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed NP

.... Short-term Bank Deposits, Affirmed NP

....Tier 2 Capital Notes, Affirmed Caa2

....Tier 2 Capital Medium-Term Note Programme, Affirmed (P)Caa2

....Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed (P)Caa1

....Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP

..Outlook Action:

....Outlook Remains Positive

Issuer: Hellenic Bank Public Company Ltd

..Upgrades:

.... Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, Upgraded to caa1 from caa2

.... Baseline Credit Assessment, Upgraded to caa1 from caa2

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Upgraded to B1(cr) from B2(cr)

.... Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Upgraded to B1 from B2

.... Long-term Bank Deposits, Upgraded to B3 from Caa1, Outlook Changed to Positive from Rating Under Review

..Affirmations:

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed NP(cr)

.... Short-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed NP

.... Short-term Bank Deposits, Affirmed NP

.... Commercial Paper, Affirmed NP

..Outlook Action:

....Outlook Changed To Positive From Rating Under Review

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Christos Theofilou, CFA
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Cyprus Ltd.
Porto Bello Building
1, Siafi Street, 3042 Limassol
PO Box 53205
Limassol CY 3301
Cyprus
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Sean Marion
MD - Financial Institutions
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Cyprus Ltd.
Porto Bello Building
1, Siafi Street, 3042 Limassol
PO Box 53205
Limassol CY 3301
Cyprus
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454

No Related Data.
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