Toronto, January 04, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) upgraded Cenovus Energy
Inc.'s (Cenovus) senior unsecured rating to Baa3 from Ba2,
and the Commercial Paper rating to Prime-3 from Not Prime.
The outlook was changed to negative from rating under review. Moody's
withdrew the corporate family rating, probability of default rating
and speculative grade liquidity rating. This concludes the review
that was initiated on October 26, 2020.
Husky Energy Inc. (Husky) is now a wholly-owned subsidiary
of Cenovus. Cenovus will become the obligor under Husky's
existing senior unsecured notes upon the completion of a planned amalgamation
among the two entities. Moody's expects the amalgamation
will be completed and the Husky debt will be pari passu with the Cenovus
debt.
"The upgrade to Baa3 reflects the significant increase in size,
scale and downstream capabilities following the close of Cenovus'
merger with Husky Energy", said Paresh Chari, Moody's
analyst. "We also expect Cenovus' conservative financial
policies to be maintained leading to significant debt reduction over the
near term, improving the weak leverage."
Upgrades:
..Issuer: Cenovus Energy Inc.
....Senior Unsecured Shelf, Upgraded
to (P)Baa3 from (P)Ba2
....Senior Unsecured Commercial Paper,
Upgraded to P-3 from NP
....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture,
Upgraded to Baa3 from Ba2 (LGD4)
Withdrawals:
..Issuer: Cenovus Energy Inc.
.... Corporate Family Rating, Withdrawn
, previously rated Ba2
.... Probability of Default Rating,
Withdrawn , previously rated Ba2-PD
.... Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating,
Withdrawn , previously rated SGL-2
Outlook Actions:
..Issuer: Cenovus Energy Inc.
....Outlook, Changed To Negative From
Rating Under Review
RATINGS RATIONALE
Cenovus (Baa3) benefits from: 1) an integrated business model that
reduces cash flow volatility; 2) conservative financial policies
of management and the board, demonstrated by the rapid reduction
of dividends and capex during oil price shocks; 3) a sizable,
long-lived, low decline, and low cost production and
reserve base; 4) an ability to generate free cash flow at low oil
prices which we expect will be directed towards improving leverage;
and 5) well-priced contracts for offshore China natural gas production
that provide significant and stable cash flow. Cenovus is challenged
by: 1) a concentrated asset base in western Canada, with modest
diversification in Atlantic Canada and Asia; 2) weak credit metrics
through 2020 and 2021; and 3) low margins and low returns for the
Deep Basin assets, and 4) the Sunrise project that reduces operational
efficiencies.
Cenovus has excellent liquidity. At September 30, 2020 and
pro forma for the merger with Husky, Cenovus had about C$1.4
billion of cash and full availability under its C$8.5 billion
revolving credit facilities. Cenovus will generate minimal free
cash flow through 2021. Cenovus will be well in compliance with
its sole financial covenant through this period. There are no debt
maturities in 2021 but about C$1.3 billion of maturities
in 2022.
The negative outlook reflects the uncertainty around the successful integration
of the combined assets and the pace of deleveraging through 2022.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The ratings could be upgraded if retained cash flow to debt appears likely
to be sustainable above 40% and Cenovus successfully integrates
the Husky assets.
The ratings could be downgraded if retained cash flow to debt is likely
to be sustained below 25%, possibly due to integration challenges.
Cenovus is a Calgary, Alberta-based exploration and production
company with interests in downstream refinery assets. Husky Energy
Inc. is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Cenovus.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Independent Exploration
and Production Industry published in May 2017 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1056808.
Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's
Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of
debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures
in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the
same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant
to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing
ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings
issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain
regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the
support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action
for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's
credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement
provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional
rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may
be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each
case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior
to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have
affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings
tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action,
and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action,
the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated
agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy
for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on
its website www.moodys.com.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social
and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1243406.
The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was
issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed
by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt
am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph
3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies.
Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's
office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.
The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was
issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed
by Moody's Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square,
Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit
rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement
status and on the Moody's office that issued the credit rating is
available on www.moodys.com.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Paresh Chari
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Canada Inc.
70 York Street
Suite 1400
Toronto, ON M5J 1S9
Canada
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Donald S. Carter, CFA
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Canada Inc.
70 York Street
Suite 1400
Toronto, ON M5J 1S9
Canada
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653