Hong Kong, October 17, 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded to Baa1 from Baa3 the issuer rating
of China Travel Service (Holdings) Hong Kong Ltd (CTS) and the backed
senior unsecured bond rating of its subsidiary, King Power Capital
Limited.
The ratings outlook is stable.
This action concludes the ratings review initiated on 26 July 2017.
RATINGS RATIONALE
"The upgrade reflects our expectation that CTS' financial leverage
will continue to improve over the next 12-18 months, underpinned
by a solid rise in earnings, and despite the transfer of its logistics
business and a slight increase in debt to support its expanded operations,"
says Chenyi Lu, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.
Moody's expects that CTS' adjusted debt/EBITDA and adjusted funds from
operations (FFO)/debt to improve to about 4.0x-4.5x
and 19.5%-20%, respectively, over
the next 12-18 months from 5.3x and 16.9%
(excluding CTS' logistics business) in 2016, and 6.9x
and 11.1% (including CTS' logistics business) in 2015.
These credit metrics are in line with the company's Baa3-level
standalone credit strength, which is also up from the Ba2-level
earlier.
"The upgrade also reflects parent China National Travel Service Group
Corporation's (CNTS) improved credit profile following its merger
with China International Travel Service Group Corporation (CITS Group)
in 2016," adds Lu.
Moody's expects CTS to grow its revenue on average on a low-single-digit
percent basis annually over the next two years, driven by its improving
hotel operations and the existence of business synergies between CTS and
China International Travel Service Co. Ltd. (CITS).
However, these benefits will be partly offset by lower revenue from
the real estate development business.
CTS' adjusted EBITDA margin should improve to about 20% over the
next 12-18 months from 16.5% in 2016, underpinned
by (1) the company's continued focus on profitable operations, and
cost and expense controls; and (2) an expected stronger gross profit
contribution from the real estate development business, despite
a projected decline in real estate revenue by 7% annually in 2017
and 2018.
On the other hand, CTS' adjusted debt is likely to increase slightly
to about RMB19.2 billion by 2018 from RMB18.3 billion in
2016 to support its expanded operations.
CTS' Baa1 issuer rating continues to incorporates a two-notch
uplift, based on expected support from its parent, CNTS,
or indirectly from the Government of China (A1 stable), in times
of need.
The support assumption considers (1) CTS' role as the core and largest
subsidiary of CNTS, (2) the important role that CTS plays in CNTS
as the primary provider of travel and travel document services for the
group; and its role in the Chinese government's strategy to
stimulate consumption by the public; and (3) CNTS' strong ability
to render support, based on its strengthened credit quality.
Given these factors, Moody's believes that the two companies'
credit profiles are closely linked.
CNTS' strengthened credit quality reflects its improving efficiency
and competitive position in the travel industry in China and a significant
decrease in its adjusted debt/EBITDA to 3.1x in 2016 from 6.4x
in 2015, following the merger with CITS Group.
CTS' standalone credit strength reflects (1) the company's strong brand
in China as one of the leading travel services providers, (2) the
consideration that it benefits from the steady rise in demand for leisure
travel in China, (3) Moody's expectation of an improvement
in the profits of its property business, and (4) its strong liquidity
position.
However, CTS' standalone credit profile is constrained by (1) the
high execution risks associated with the rapid expansion of its property
business, and (2) its high level of debt leverage, which is,
however, declining.
The stable outlook incorporates Moody's expectations over the next
12-18 months that (1) the company's credit metrics will be
maintained at levels that are appropriate for its current standalone credit
quality; and (2) there will be no material changes in its overall
business profile, its strategic importance to its parent and the
parent's ability to provide support.
CTS' rating could be upgraded over time if both the company and
CNTS can improve their business and financial profiles significantly through
enhancing earnings and reducing debt, absent any material weakening
in CTS' strategic importance to the parent.
Credit metrics for CTS that could indicate upward pressure on its rating
include adjusted debt/EBITDA below 3.0x on a sustained basis.
CTS' rating would be downgraded if there is a material deterioration
in its business or financial profile, absent any material changes
in the support assessment.
Credit metrics indicative of downward pressure on its rating include adjusted
debt/EBITDA above 5.5x-6.0x on a sustained basis.
The ratings could also be downgraded with the company's current
standalone credit quality if Moody's support assessment for the
company from its parent falls. This could result from a decline
in the importance of CTS to its parent, or a significant deterioration
in its parent's credit profile.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and Consumer
Service Industry published in October 2016. Please see the Rating
Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this
methodology.
Established in 1928 and headquartered in Hong Kong, China Travel
Service (Holdings) Hong Kong Ltd operates three main business segments:
travel services, real estate development, and financial services.
It is wholly owned by China National Travel Service Corporation,
a state-owned enterprise wholly owned by the State Council of China
and supervised by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration
Commission.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to
each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their
credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating.
For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory
disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and
in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to
the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction
structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive
rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further
information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the
respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action,
and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action,
the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
The first name below is the lead rating analyst for this Credit Rating
and the last name below is the person primarily responsible for approving
this Credit Rating.
Chenyi Lu
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077
Gary Lau
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077