Approximately $503 million of asset-backed securities affected
New York, September 25, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded two securities and affirmed eleven
securities issued in Canada by Ford Auto Securitization Trusts.
The transactions are serviced by Ford Credit Canada Limited (Baa3/P-3,
Stable).
The complete rating actions are as follows:
Issuer: Ford Auto Securitization Trust 2011-R2
Cl. A, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 11,
2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Cl. B, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 11,
2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Cl. C, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 11,
2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Cl. D, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 11,
2013 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)
Issuer: Ford Auto Securitization Trust 2011-R3
Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Dec
11, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Cl. B, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 11,
2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Cl. C, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 11,
2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Cl. D, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 11,
2013 Upgraded to Aa1 (sf)
Issuer: Ford Auto Securitization Trust 2013-R1
Cl. A-2, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Dec
11, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Dec
11, 2013 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
Cl. B, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 11,
2013 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)
Cl. C, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 11,
2013 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)
Cl. D, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 11,
2013 Upgraded to Aa2 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The actions are a result of the build-up of credit enhancement
relative to remaining losses due to non-declining reserve accounts.
The transactions have also benefited from the slight downward revision
of the collateral pools' lifetime cumulative net loss (CNL) expectations.
The lifetime CNL expectations for the 2011-R2 and 2011-R3
transactions were lowered to 0.85% from the previous expectations
of 1.00%, prompted by the strong performance of the
underlying collateral and low pool factors. The lifetime CNL expectation
for the 2013-R1 transaction is now at 0.75%,
down from the original expectation of 1.00% due to the stronger
than projected performance.
Below are key performance metrics (as of the August 2014 distribution
date) and credit assumptions for the affected transactions. Credit
assumptions include Moody's expected lifetime CNL expected range which
is expressed as a percentage of the original pool balance. Moody's
lifetime remaining CNL expectation and Moody's Aaa levels which are expressed
as a percentage of the current pool balance. The Aaa level is the
level of credit enhancement that would be consistent with a Aaa (sf) rating
for the given asset pool. Performance metrics include pool factor,
which is the ratio of the current collateral balance to the original collateral
balance at closing; total credit enhancement (expressed as a percentage
of the outstanding collateral pool balance adjusted for YSOC), which
typically consists of subordination, overcollateralization,
and reserve fund; Excess Spread per annum and YSOC. The YSOC
compensates for the lower APR on the subvened loans.
Issuer: Ford Auto Securitization Trust 2011-R2
Lifetime CNL expected Loss -- 0.85%
Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation -- 0.74%
Aaa (sf) level -- 6.50%
Pool factor -- 17.08%
Total credit enhancement (excluding excess spread ): Cl.
A -- 46.25%, Cl. B -- 29.12%,
Cl. C -- 17.70%, Cl. D --
6.28%
Excess Spread per annum - Approximately -0.3%
YSOC -- Approximately 7.3%
Issuer: Ford Auto Securitization Trust 2011-R3
Lifetime CNL expected Loss -- 0.85%
Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation -- 0.61%
Aaa (sf) level -- 6.50%
Pool factor -- 23.27%
Total credit enhancement (excluding excess spread ): Cl.
A -- 34.17%, Cl. B -- 21.48%,
Cl. C -- 13.03%, Cl. D --
4.57%
Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 1.6%
YSOC - Approximately 6.3%
Issuer: Ford Auto Securitization Trust 2013-R1
Lifetime CNL expected Loss -- 0.75%
Lifetime Remaining CNL expectation -- 0.83%
Aaa (sf) level -- 6.50%
Pool factor -- 49.32%
Total credit enhancement (excluding excess spread ): Cl.
A -- 16.26%, Cl. B -- 10.22%,
Cl. C -- 6.20%, Cl. D -- 2.18%
Excess Spread per annum - Approximately 1.2%
YSOC - Approximately 7.7%
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach
to Rating Auto Loan-Backed ABS" published in May 2013. Please
see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy
of this methodology.
Factors that would lead to downgrade of the rating:
Levels of credit protection that are insufficient to protect investors
against current expectations of loss could lead to a downgrade of the
ratings. Moody's current expectations of loss may be worse
than its original expectations because of higher frequency of default
by the underlying obligors of the loans or a deterioration in the value
of the vehicles that secure the obligor's promise of payment.
The US job market and the market for used vehicle are primary drivers
of performance. Other reasons for worse performance than Moody's
expected include poor servicing, error on the part of transaction
parties, lack of transactional governance and fraud.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third party assessment
on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial
instruments related to the monitoring of these transactions in the past
six months.
The analysis includes an assessment of collateral characteristics and
performance to determine the expected collateral loss or a range of expected
collateral losses or cash flows to the rated instruments. As a
second step, Moody's estimates expected collateral losses or cash
flows using a quantitative tool that takes into account credit enhancement,
loss allocation and other structural features, to derive the expected
loss for each rated instrument.
As the section on loss and cash flow analysis describes, Moody's
quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors
contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood
of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody's
weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of
the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Aron Bergman
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Eric Fellows
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's upgrades Ford Credit issued prime auto loan ABS in Canada