London, 15 December 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") today upgraded
the long-term bank deposit ratings of ForteBank JSC (ForteBank)
to Ba3 from B1, its long-term Counterparty Risk Ratings (CRRs)
to Ba2 from Ba3, subordinated debt rating to B3 from Caa1 as well
as the bank's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA to b2
from b3. In addition, the bank's long-term Counterparty
Risk Assessment (CR Assessment) was upgraded to Ba2(cr) from Ba3(cr).
The bank's short-term foreign currency bank deposit rating and
CRRs were affirmed at Not Prime as well as the short-term CR Assessment
at Not Prime(cr). The outlook on the long-term ratings is
stable.
The list of affected ratings can be found at the end of the press release.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgrade of ForteBank's ratings recognizes the consistent improvements
of its solvency metrics along with strong liquidity and resilience of
the bank's revenues to business pressures related to the coronavirus
containment measures and the economic contraction in Kazakhstan.
ForteBank displayed strong profits and modest loan growth in recent years,
which enabled the bank to notably improve its solvency and materially
reduce uncertainties surrounding its historically high level of problem
loans. The bank's ratio of problem loans to tangible common equity
and loan loss reserves stood at 61% as of 30 September 2020,
having improved from 87% as of year-end 2017. The
improvements were achieved through the gradual increase of problem loans
coverage with loan loss reserves as well as the capital build up,
owing to the bank's strong profitability in recent years.
In the first 9 months of 2020, the bank reported annualized net
income at around 2.8% of average tangible assets,
a stronger level compared to 2.3% in 2019 and 1.9%
in 2018. Despite the ongoing coronavirus containment measures,
Moody's is now expecting ForteBank's to remain profitable in 2021
and beyond, but profitability is expected to normalize at a lower
level compared to this year's strong earnings.
ForteBank's capital adequacy has been strong to date, with tangible
common equity to risk-weighted assets at 17.0% as
of 30 September 2020 and regulatory capital ratios being well above the
required minima.
ForteBank's liquidity also remains healthy. The bank was rapidly
growing its deposit base while being conservative with loan origination
in the most recent years. As a result, loan-to-deposit
ratio declined to 60% at 30 September 2020 from 64% in 2019
and 71% in 2018, with liquid banking assets standing at around
40% of tangible banking assets, providing comfortable cushion
to face potential liquidity headwinds.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Further improvement in asset quality and/or in the coverage of problem
loans by loan loss reserves together with a maintenance of good profitability,
capital adequacy and liquidity could lead to a rating upgrade.
A decline in capital adequacy, weaker liquidity or material asset
quality problems could lead to lower ratings. A reduction in the
probability of government support could also lead to a downgrade of the
long-term ratings.
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS
..Issuer: ForteBank JSC
Upgrades:
....Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment,
Upgraded to b2 from b3
....Baseline Credit Assessment, Upgraded
to b2 from b3
....Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment,
Upgraded to Ba2(cr) from Ba3(cr)
....Long-term Counterparty Risk Ratings,
Upgraded to Ba2 from Ba3
....Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture,
Upgraded to B3 from Caa1
....Long-term Bank Deposit Ratings,
Upgraded to Ba3 from B1, Outlook Remains Stable
Affirmations:
....Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment,
Affirmed NP(cr)
....Short-term Counterparty Risk Ratings,
Affirmed NP
....Short-term Bank Deposit Ratings,
Affirmed NP
Outlook Action:
....Outlook, Remains Stable
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks Methodology
published in November 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1147865.
Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's
Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of
debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures
in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the
same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant
to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing
ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings
issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain
regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the
support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action
for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's
credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement
provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional
rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may
be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each
case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior
to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have
affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings
tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action,
and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action,
the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated
agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy
for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on
its website www.moodys.com.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social
and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1243406.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Semyon Isakov
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Limited, Russian Branch
7th floor, Four Winds Plaza
21 1st Tverskaya-Yamskaya St.
Moscow 125047
Russia
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Nicholas Hill
MD - Banking
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
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