New York, December 17, 2020 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") upgraded Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes
S.A's (Gol) corporate family rating to B3 from Caa1. At
the same time Moody's upgraded to Caa1 from Caa2 Gol Finance's perpetual
notes guaranteed by Gol and Gol Linhas Aereas S.A. and the
$350 million senior exchangeable notes due 2024 issued by Gol Equity
Finance and guaranteed by Gol and Gol Linhas Aereas S.A..
The outlook was changed to stable from negative.
Upgrades:
..Issuer: Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A.
.... Corporate Family Rating, Upgraded
to B3 from Caa1
..Issuer: GOL Equity Finance
....Gtd Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture,
Upgraded to Caa1 from Caa2
..Issuer: Gol Finance
....Gtd Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture,
Upgraded to Caa1 from Caa2
Outlook Actions:
..Issuer: Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A.
....Outlook, Changed To Stable from
Negative
..Issuer: GOL Equity Finance
....Outlook, Changed To Stable from
Negative
..Issuer: Gol Finance
....Outlook, Changed To Stable from
Negative
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgrade to B3 from Caa1 was prompted by Gol's better operating
performance versus our expectation at the beginning of the coronavirus
outbreak. The upgrade also reflects a lower risk of default in
the short-term especially after the repayment of the term loan
guaranteed by Delta and the successful refinancing of other debt instruments
such as working capital facilities and local market debentures that resulted
in a more comfortable debt amortization profile. Gol's ability
to reduce costs through agreements reached with employees and lessors
that resulted in a better than expected reduction in cash burn is also
reflected in the upgrade to B3.
The B3 rating is constrained by the uncertainties ahead of the airline
industry as a result of the coronavirus pandemic that could lead to slower
economic recovery or another round of restrictions for travel and tourism
reducing the speed of the rebound in the industry. Despite the
recovery observed so far, the capital markets are still demanding
stronger collaterals packages and higher returns when offering new funding
to airlines in general. The ability to raise liquidity and control
cash burn will still be a key aspect in Gol's ratings assessment.
The adverse impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy,
oil prices and asset prices have sustained a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined
credit effects of these developments are unprecedented. The passenger
airline industry is one of the sectors most significantly affected by
the shock given its exposure to travel restrictions and sensitivity of
consumer demand to sentiment. Moody's regards the coronavirus pandemic
as a social risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial
implications for public health and safety.
LIQUIDITY
Gol's liquidity is adequate, and its debt maturity profile
has improved when compared to the beginning of the pandemic. We
expect that the company will end 2020 with around BRL1.0 billion
in cash on hand with no significant maturities over the next three years.
Still, the uncertainties ahead of the airline industry as a result
of the coronavirus pandemic could lead to slower economic recovery or
another round of restrictions for travel and tourism reducing the speed
of the rebound and demand for air travel leading to additional cash burn
and higher liquidity needs.
The company has around BRL6.0 billion in other potential liquidity
sources including receivables, financeable deposits and unencumbered
assets that could be used in potential secured financing transactions.
The stable outlook reflects Gol's will experience a stronger recovery
in demand going forward while keeping its conservativeness observed so
far during the pandemic towards liquidity, costs and capacity management.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's could upgrade Gol if:
• risks and uncertainties are reduced significantly, and passenger
demand begins a sustainable recovery towards pre-coronavirus levels.
• Gol to maintain an adequate liquidity profile, with cash
consistently above 20% of revenues, and key metrics to improve
such as
• debt-to-EBITDA declines below 6x
• (funds from operations + interest)/ interest is sustained
above 3x.
Moody's could downgrade Gol if:
• pace of recovery of passenger demand is slower than Moody's expects
• liquidity concerns increase
• the company is unable to strengthen credit metrics through the
recovery phase
• there are increased expectations of a default in the company's
financial obligations
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Passenger Airline
Industry published in April 2018 and available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1091811.
Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
COMPANY PROFILE
Based in Sao Paulo and founded in 2001, Gol is the largest low-cost
carrier in Latin America, offering over 700 daily passenger flights
to connect Brazil's major cities and various destinations in South America,
North America and the Caribbean, along with cargo and charter flight
services. Additionally, Gol has a 53% stake in Smiles,
a loyalty program company with more than 14 million participants that
allows members to accumulate miles and redeem tickets in more than 900
destinations around the world and offer non-ticket reward products
and services. In the fiscal year ended December 2019, Gol
reported consolidated net revenues of BRL13.9 billion and lease
adjusted EBITDA of BRL4.1 billion. Gol LuxCo, Gol
Finance, and Gol Equity Finance are wholly-owned subsidiaries
of Gol.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's
Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
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Marcos Schmidt
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Corporate Finance Group
Moody's America Latina Ltda.
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Marianna Waltz, CFA
MD - Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance Group
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