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Rating Action:

Moody's upgrades Guangzhou Metro's ratings due to changes in its assessment of support

 The document has been translated in other languages

12 Sep 2018

Hong Kong, September 12, 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service has today upgraded Guangzhou Metro Group Co., Ltd.'s (GZ Metro) issuer rating to A1 from A3.

At the same time, Moody's has upgraded the backed senior unsecured medium-term note (MTN) program and backed senior unsecured debt ratings for Guangzhou Metro Investment Finance (BVI) Ltd. — a wholly owned subsidiary of GZ Metro — to (P)A2 from (P)Baa1 and A2 from Baa1 respectively.

The outlook on all ratings remains stable.

These rating actions reflect Moody's updated view on support for government-related issuers (GRIs) owned by regional and local governments (RLGs). Please refer to today's separate press releases for more details on Moody's updated view.

GZ Metro's baseline credit assessment (BCA) of baa1 remains unchanged.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The ratings upgrade reflects the strengthened credit profile of GZ Metro, following Moody's updated view that the China central government's A1 rating is a better indicator in assessing support for RLG-owned GRIs.

GZ Metro is in a very unique position, because, apart from benefiting from Moody's assessment of an A1 rating as the indicator of support, its credit profile is underpinned by: 1) Moody's continued expectation of "Very High" support from the central government to GZ Metro in times of need, due to GZ Metro's importance to national policy objectives and the priorities set by the central government, and 2) GZ Metro's strong standalone credit fundamentals, as indicated by the company's BCA of baa1.

The combination of these factors — namely the very high likelihood of support, the use of the China central government's A1 rating as the indicator of strength of support, and GZ Metro's own strong standalone credit fundamentals — has bolstered GZ Metro's overall credit profile and Moody's assessment of its A1 rating, which includes joint default analysis.

Moody's considers that A1 China central government rating is a better indicator for assessing support for RLG-owned GRIs, because policy announcements from the central government clearly demonstrate that it controls the decision-making process around support for RLG-owned GRIs.

Furthermore, the central government controls the likelihood of support occurring in any material way, given the centrally planned nature of the Chinese economy. This support can take various forms, including government subsidies, capital or asset injections, and loans from policy as well as state-owned banks.

As such, Moody's believes the rating of the central government is a better indicator of the credit strength underlying any support that might be forthcoming and that the most important considerations in assessing the likelihood of support are the importance of a given GRI to national and regional policy objectives and the priorities set by the central government.

Moody's has maintained its expectation of support at "Very High" for GZ Metro, given 1) the importance and centrally planned nature of China's metro sector and its key role in meeting national policies and objectives, 2) the public policy role of GZ Metro in operating and developing the metro system in Guangzhou, a city which is one of the four first-tier cities in China, and which is also the provincial capital city of Guangdong Province, and 3) the central government's approval and close oversight of GZ Metro's annual budget, which is closely linked to the fiscal budget of Guangzhou city.

Furthermore, Moody's believes that a failure by GZ Metro would risk a broader systemic problem in the debt markets, which could also materially impact economic activity.

This situation supports Moody's view that, while the likelihood of support is reducing for some GRIs, it nevertheless remains very high for GZ Metro.

Moody's has also lowered its assessment of dependence for GZ Metro to "High" from "Very High", given its less direct financial linkage to the central government — when compared with the Guangzhou city government — but this change in dependence does not affect GZ Metro's ratings.

The stable outlook on GZ Metro's ratings reflects: 1) the stable outlook on the sovereign rating; and 2) the consideration that the company's BCA remains appropriately positioned at baa1.

Ratings upgrade potential is unlikely, given that GZ Metro's issuer rating is on par with China's sovereign rating of A1.

The ratings could be downgraded if 1) Moody's view of the likelihood of support for GZ Metro weakens, and/or 2) GZ Metro's BCA weakens meaningfully.

The methodologies used in these ratings were Mass Transit Enterprises Methodology published in December 2017, and Government-Related Issuers published in June 2018. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Guangzhou Metro Group Co., Ltd. invests in, constructs and operates Guangzhou city's metro system. Founded in 1992, GZ Metro is wholly owned by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the Guangzhou city government. The SASAC classifies GZ Metro as a quasi-welfare state-owned enterprise.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Moody's considers a rated entity or its agent(s) to be participating when it maintains an overall relationship with Moody's. Unless noted in the Regulatory Disclosures as a Non-Participating Entity, the rated entities are participating and the rated entities or their agent(s) generally provide Moody's with information for the purposes of its ratings process. Please refer to www.moodys.com for the Regulatory Disclosures for each credit rating action under the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page and for details of Moody's Policy for Designating Non-Participating Rated Entities.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

The first name below is the lead rating analyst for this Credit Rating and the last name below is the person primarily responsible for approving this Credit Rating.

Ralph Ng
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Project & Infrastructure Finance
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Terry Fanous
MD-Public Proj & Infstr Fin
Project & Infrastructure Finance
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Hong Kong Ltd.
24/F One Pacific Place
88 Queensway
Hong Kong
China (Hong Kong S.A.R.)
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

No Related Data.
© 2023 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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​

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