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Rating Action:

Moody's upgrades NYC GO bonds to Aa1 from Aa2, assigns Aa1 to GO Fiscal 2019 Series E and Series F

01 Mar 2019
NOTE: On May 17, 2019, the List of Affected Credit Ratings accessible via hyperlink from this press release was corrected to remove the VMIG 1 rating affirmation for New York City Transitional Finance Authority (NY), Tax Exempt Adjustable Rate Bonds Fiscal 1998 Series C. Revised release follows.

New York, March 01, 2019 -- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded the City of New York's general obligation bonds to Aa1 from Aa2. The upgrade affects approximately $38 billion of outstanding general obligation debt. We have also assigned Aa1 ratings to the city's $824 million General Obligation Bonds, Fiscal 2019 Series E, $90 million General Obligation Bonds, Fiscal 2019 Series F, Subseries F-1 and $72 million General Obligation Bonds, Fiscal 2019 Series F, Subseries F-2. The new sales, expected to price March 6, are being issued to refund outstanding general obligation bonds for savings.

Concurrently, we have upgraded to Aa2 from Aa3 the city's outstanding appropriation-backed debt: $2.7 billion of senior and second indenture revenue bonds issued through the Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation; $680 million of bonds issued through the New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation; $223 million of bonds issued through the New York City Educational Construction Fund; and $77 million of bonds issued through the New York City Industrial Development Agency (IDA). We have also assigned a Aa2 rating to the $32.8 million Special Revenue Refunding Bonds, Fixed Rate Fiscal 2019 Series A (New York City-New York Stock Exchange Project) bonds to be issued through IDA; those bonds are expected to price March 14. The outlook for the general obligation and appropriation-backed debt is stable.

In addition, we have affirmed the Aaa ratings assigned to $703 million of outstanding senior lien bonds and the Aa1 ratings assigned to $36.4 billion of outstanding subordinate lien future tax secured revenue bonds, including recovery bonds, issued by the New York City Transitional Finance Authority (TFA). The outlook is stable.

We have also affirmed the short-term VMIG 1 and VMIG 3 ratings assigned to general obligation and TFA future tax secured variable rate demand bonds (including TFA's parity subordinate lien recovery bonds) with conditional liquidity provided by various banks through standby bond purchase agreements.

Please click on this link http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBM_PBM202756 for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral part of this Press Release and identifies each affected issuer.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The upgrade to the general obligation rating reflects continued strengthening and diversification of New York City's economy, reducing its reliance on volatile financial services. The city's competitive advantages include a young and highly skilled labor pool, access to higher education and medical centers, strong domestic and international transportation links, and low crime rates. Those fundamentals position New York City for strong future growth, especially in media, medical research, and technology, while maintaining its deep strength in financial services.

The upgrade also reflects the city's ongoing strong financial management, including stronger reserves that position it better to withstand an economic downturn. Budgetary and financial management are strong and frequent updates to multi-year financial plans provide the city a transparent view of future budget pressures New York City's revenue base is large and diverse. Its financing responsibilities also are broader than most local governments, since it is a city, five counties and the nation's largest school district, and its debt burden is above-average due to this operational scope. Still, the city's fixed costs for debt service, pensions and retiree health care have decreased and are now below the median for the largest local governments and in the bottom five among the nation's largest cities.

The upgrade of the Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation bonds reflects a one-notch distinction from the city's general obligation rating based on our determination of the essential nature of the transportation and other infrastructure projects financed by the bonds, strong legal structure that obligates the mayor to include tax equivalency payments and an amount sufficient to cover interest in the annual budget submission, the need for appropriation of those amounts, and the potential for real estate market volatility that could affect assessed values in the Hudson Yards district. The ratings also reflect the closed nature of the first indenture and the relatively small amount of debt left outstanding under it. This effectively means that the city's subject to appropriation interest support benefits second indenture bonds as much or more than first indenture bonds.

The upgrade of the Health and Hospitals Corporation (HHC) reflects a one-notch distinction from the city's general obligation rating based on the essential city services it provides; the strong relationship between HHC and the City of New York, including the city's statutory obligation to restore HHC's capital reserve fund if necessary, subject to appropriation; and other features of the strong legal structure including a gross pledge of HHC's sizeable health care reimbursement revenues and a lock box mechanism that collects the revenues and uses them to pay debt service before they flow to HHC for operations.

The upgrade of the Educational Construction Fund bonds reflects a one-notch distinction from the city's general obligation rating based on the city's obligation to make lease payments in amounts sufficient to pay debt service when due, subject to appropriation, the essential nature of the school projects financed with the bonds, and the moderate legal structure that, in addition to the need for appropriation, includes the ability of ECF to initiate a mechanism to intercept appropriations of education aid from the State of New York (Aa1 stable) if necessary should the city not appropriate sufficient amounts to replenish the debt service reserve fund.

The upgrade of the New York City Industrial Development Agency (Stock Exchange project) bonds reflects a one-notch distinction from the city's general obligation rating based on the less essential nature of the economic development project and a moderate legal structure that reflects the city's absolute and unconditional obligation to make lease payments, subject to appropriation, regardless of the project's completion.

The affirmation of the Aaa and Aa1 ratings on the Transitional Finance Authority's (TFA) senior and subordinate future tax secured revenue bonds reflect high debt service coverage provided by the pledge of New York City's personal income tax and sales tax revenues, a strong legal structure that insulates TFA from potential city fiscal stress, the open subordinate lien that permits future leverage of the pledged revenues, balanced by New York State's ability to repeal the statutes imposing the pledged revenues. Those factors combined provide credit strength that allows the senior lien to be rated higher than the city's general obligation rating, and the subordinate lien at the same level.

The affirmation of the short-term ratings assigned to both general obligation and TFA future tax secured bonds reflects (i) the credit quality of the various banks acting as liquidity support providers under the standby bond purchase agreements (SBPAs); and (ii) our assessment of the likelihood of an early termination of each SBPA without a mandatory tender.

RATING OUTLOOK

The outlooks for the City of New York, Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation and the New York City Transitional Finance Authority are stable. The city's institutionalized budgetary controls and early recognition of future budget pressure help it maintain a balanced financial position and weather economic downturns. The city's economy continues to diversify, becoming less reliant on a volatile financial services sector, and its finances will benefit. Pension funding practices are strong but retiree health care liabilities are a challenge that will require ongoing economic growth to keep pace with.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE

- Stronger reserves, at levels similar to higher-rated peers, or establishment of formal policies to increase reserves

- Reduction of debt burden or further reduction in fixed costs

- For appropriation-backed debt, an upgrade of the city's general obligation rating

- For the TFA subordinate lien, a higher additional bonds test or other indenture provision increasing bondholder protections against possible dilution of coverage

- For the VMIG 3 short-term ratings, an upgrade of the short-term counterparty risk assessment of the liquidity provider bank

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO A DOWNGRADE

- Divergence from well-established fiscal practices and strong budgetary management

- Emergence of significant liquidity strain, especially that results in the need for large cash-flow borrowing

- Negative change in economic fundamentals outside normal economic fundamentals

- For appropriation-backed debt, a downgrade of the city's general obligation rating or failure to appropriate funds for debt service

- For TFA's senior and subordinate liens, material dilution of debt service coverage

- For the short-term ratings, a downgrade of the short-term counterparty risk assessments of the liquidity-provider banks, or a downgrade of the city's general obligation rating

LEGAL SECURITY

The general obligation bonds are general obligation, full faith and credit obligations of the city, secured by a real property tax levied without limitation as to rate or amount. All of the city's property tax is deposited into the general debt service fund, which is administered and maintained by the state comptroller.

The Hudson Yards bonds are payable primarily by payments in lieu of taxes (PILOTs) collected by HYIC from commercial properties in the Hudson Yards area and tax equivalency payments (TEPs) from residential properties and hotels collected by the city and appropriated to HYIC. In addition, the city has pledged to cover interest, subject to annual appropriation, for the life of the bonds if the TEP revenues are insufficient. The ratings, therefore, are derived from the city's credit quality.

HHC's bonds are paid by a gross pledge of its sizeable health care reimbursement revenues and a lock box mechanism that collects the revenues and uses them to pay debt service before they flow to HHC for operations. The rating is derived from New York City's legal obligation to fund any shortfall in HHC's Capital Reserve Fund, subject to annual appropriation.

The Educational Construction Fund bonds are payable from city rental payments for the school portion of combined facilities projects in amounts equal to principal and interest on the bonds, subject to annual appropriation.

The IDA bonds are payable from monthly city rental payments equal to the sum of principal and interest coming due in the next succeeding month and any amounts owed under any credit facility. The city's obligation to make rental payments is absolute and unconditional, regardless of the project's commencement, completion, or availability for use and occupancy, subject to annual appropriation.

The Transitional Finance Authority's bonds are payable from pledged personal income and sales taxes collected by the New York State Department of Taxation and Finance and held by the state comptroller, who makes daily transfers to the trustee (net of refunds and the costs of collection). The trustee makes quarterly set-asides of amounts required for debt service due in the following quarter on the outstanding bonds Additionally, future tax secured bonds issued before November 2006 have a first lien on appropriations of state building aid to the city if necessary to meet debt service requirements.

USE OF PROCEEDS

Proceeds of the general obligation bonds will be used to refund outstanding general obligation bonds for debt service savings. Proceeds of the IDA special revenue refunding bonds will be used to refund outstanding bonds for savings.

PROFILE

New York City, the largest city in the United States, is large and diverse, with a population of 8.6 million people and above average wealth levels: personal income per capita is 137% of the US level. The size and scope of the city's operations are broader than most local governments: in addition to the city government, New York City is five counties and the nation's largest public school system, with 1.1 million students. New York City's GDP is larger than all but four states.

METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in the general obligation long-term ratings was US Local Government General Obligation Debt published in December 2016. The principal methodology used in the lease long-term ratings was Lease, Appropriation, Moral Obligation and Comparable Debt of US State and Local Governments published in July 2018. The principal methodology used in the special tax long-term ratings was US Public Finance Special Tax Methodology published in July 2017. The principal methodology used in short-term ratings was Variable Rate Instruments Supported by Conditional Liquidity Facilities published in March 2017. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Nicholas Samuels
Lead Analyst
State Ratings
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
7 World Trade Center
250 Greenwich Street
New York 10007
US
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Marcia Van Wagner
Additional Contact
State Ratings
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A
JOURNALISTS: 1 212 553 0376
Client Service: 1 212 553 1653

No Related Data.
© 2019 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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