Madrid, July 07, 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded to Aa3 from A1 the covered bond
ratings issued by Raiffeisenbank, a.s. (the issuer,
unpublished ratings). The covered bonds are backed by a pool of
Czech mortgage loans and are governed by the Czech covered bond legislation.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's rating actions follow the improvement of the credit quality of
Raiffeisenbank, a.s., which does not carry a
public rating.
As a result of the improvement, the CB anchor for the mortgage covered
bonds is now higher. This CB anchor, together with a TPI
of Very Improbable, restricts the rating of the mortgage covered
bond at Aa2. However, the remaining legal uncertainty regarding
whether over-collateralisation (OC) will remain in the cover pool
and available for the benefit of covered bondholders after an insolvency
of the issuer limits the rating uplift available by OC to an Aa3 rating.
KEY RATING ASSUMPTIONS/FACTORS
Moody's determines covered bond ratings using a two-step
process: an expected loss analysis and a TPI framework analysis.
EXPECTED LOSS: Moody's uses its Covered Bond Model (COBOL)
to determine a rating based on the expected loss on the bond. COBOL
determines expected loss as (1) a function of the probability that the
issuer will cease making payments under the covered bonds (a CB anchor);
and (2) the stressed losses on the cover pool assets should the issuer
cease making payments under the covered bonds (i.e.,
a CB anchor event).
The CB anchor for this programme is CR assessment plus one notch.
The CR assessment reflects an issuer's ability to avoid defaulting
on certain senior bank operating obligations and contractual commitments,
including covered bonds. Moody's may use a CB anchor of CR
assessment plus one notch in the European Union or otherwise where an
operational resolution regime is particularly likely to ensure continuity
of covered bond payments.
The cover pool losses for this programme are 45.8%.
This is an estimate of the losses Moody's currently models following a
CB anchor event. Moody's splits cover pool losses between
market risk of 40.0% and collateral risk of 5.8%.
Market risk measures losses stemming from refinancing risk and risks related
to interest-rate and currency mismatches (these losses may also
include certain legal risks). Collateral risk measures losses resulting
directly from cover pool assets' credit quality. Moody's
derives collateral risk from the collateral score, which for this
programme is currently 8.7%.
The over-collateralisation in the cover pool is 42.7%,
of which issuer provides 0% on "committed" basis.
The minimum OC level consistent with the Aa3 rating is 20.0%,
of which the issuer should provide 0% in a "committed"
form. These numbers show that Moody's is relying on "uncommitted"
OC in its expected loss analysis.
For further details on cover pool losses, collateral risk,
market risk, collateral score and TPI Leeway across covered bond
programmes rated by Moody's please refer to "Moody's Global Covered Bonds
Monitoring Overview", published quarterly. All numbers in
this section are based on Moody's most recent modelling (based on
data, as per end December 2016).
TPI FRAMEWORK: Moody's assigns a "timely payment indicator"
(TPI), which measures the likelihood of timely payments to covered
bondholders following a CB anchor event. The TPI framework limits
the covered bond rating to a certain number of notches above the CB anchor.
For Raiffeisenbank, a.s.'s mortgage covered bonds,
Moody's has assigned a TPI of Very Improbable.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The CB anchor is the main determinant of a covered bond programme's rating
robustness. A change in the level of the CB anchor could lead to
an upgrade or downgrade of the covered bonds. The TPI Leeway measures
the number of notches by which Moody's might lower the CB anchor before
the rating agency downgrades the covered bonds because of TPI framework
constraints.
The TPI Leeway for Raiffeisenbank, a.s.'s mortgage
covered bonds is unpublished.
A multiple-notch downgrade of the covered bonds might occur in
certain circumstances, such as (1) a country ceiling or sovereign
downgrade capping a covered bond rating or negatively affecting the CB
Anchor and the TPI; (2) a multiple-notch downgrade of the
CB Anchor; or (3) a material reduction of the value of the cover
pool.
RATING METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's
Approach to Rating Covered Bonds" published in December 2016.
Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity
analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity
to Assumptions of the disclosure form.
Moody's did not use any stress scenario simulations in its analysis.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to
each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their
credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating.
For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory
disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and
in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to
the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction
structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive
rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further
information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the
respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action,
and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action,
the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Tomas Rodriguez-Vigil
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Espana, S.A.
Calle Principe de Vergara, 131, 6 Planta
Madrid 28002
Spain
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Juan Pablo Soriano
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Espana, S.A.
Calle Principe de Vergara, 131, 6 Planta
Madrid 28002
Spain
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
