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I AGREE
Rating Action:

Moody's upgrades Saga's senior secured debt rating by one notch to Ba1, stable outlook.

15 Mar 2016

London, 15 March 2016 -- Moody's Investors Services today upgraded Saga Plc's (Saga) corporate family rating (CFR) to Ba1 from Ba2 and probability of default rating (PDR) to Ba2-PD from Ba3-PD. Consequently, Moody's also upgraded Saga MidCo Limited's instrument ratings on the Term Loan A and Revolving Credit Facility (RCF) to Ba1 from Ba2. The outlook is stable.

Saga is a UK based group, listed on the London Stock Exchange, providing a range of branded products to the over-50s consumer segment. Saga's products mainly span across financial services including motor, home, travel and private medical insurance underwriting and broking services, as well as travel with a packaged and cruise holidays offering.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rating upgrade is primarily driven by the material improvement in Saga's financial flexibility metrics following the voluntary prepayment of GBP 200 million of the Group's GBP 700 million Term Loan A during the first half of 2015. The rating upgrade is also supported by the group's good underlying profitability growth and overall strong cash-flow generation.

As a result of the aforementioned voluntary debt repayment, partially offset by the GBP 70 million RCF drawdown, Saga's debt-to-EBITDA (calculated on a Moody's basis) reduced from 3.2x as at 31 January 2015 to an around 2.6x as at 31 July 2015, which is below Moody's 3.0x upgrade trigger to a Ba1 corporate family rating. Over the next 12-18 months, Moody's expects Saga will continue to reduce its leverage position and increase earnings coverage of interest supported by both underlying EBITDA growth and further voluntary debt repayments. However, Moody's analysis incorporates the expected hike in leverage in 2019, following the decision to buy a new cruise ship, which will be funded by debt.

With regard to profitability, Moody's notes that although Saga reported a GBP 134 million net loss for the year-ended 31 January 2015 (YE2015), on a like-for-like basis (i.e. excluding the losses on the discontinued healthcare operations and before IPO expenses), profit before tax increased by 10% to GBP 196 million. Similarly, YE2015 trading EBITDA from continued operations grew by 6% to GBP 227 million, which was primarily driven by improved underwriting results from the motor insurance segment, also reflected in the 10.5 percentage point improvement in the combined ratio to 78%, partially offset by lower add-on sales.

In Moody's view, a key credit strength of the group is its well-establish and highly trusted affinity brand, which benefits from a loyal customer base and ability to cross-sell its products. However, offsetting these benefits to a certain extent is Saga's limited scale and relatively modest share of both the UK personal insurance market and travel industry, even within its target customer segment. Saga's reliance on a single country and the UK personal insurance market, which accounted for 45% of group revenues and 93% of group EBITDA for YE2015, is also a rating constraint. Furthermore, in Moody's view, the on-going difficult trading environment across both UK personal motor and homes lines could hamper Saga's ability to grow profitability.

-- DEBT RATINGS --

Saga's PDR of Ba2-PD, which is one notch below the CFR, reflects Moody's assumption of a 65% family recovery rate as is customary for capital structures including senior bank debt only with maintenance covenants.

The Ba1 rating of the Term Loan A and RCF, which rank pari passu to one another, are at the same level as the CFR. This is a result of the relatively small amount of super senior pension liabilities and other non-financial debt liabilities at the operating companies ranking ahead. The senior bank facilities benefit from only limited guarantees (i.e. there is no guarantees provided by the regulated entities including Saga's underwriting and travel businesses) and remain subject to financial covenants (leverage and interest cover).

-- OUTLOOK AND RATING DRIVERS --

The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that the group will continue to expand its motor insurance footprint through its new panel whilst maintaining a better than industry combined operating ratio (COR) on its portfolio; enjoy stable EBITDA margins and sustained cash generating; and that Saga will continues to implement its strategy to profitably grow its travel operations.

Moody's says the following factors could put upward pressure on Saga's ratings: (1) meaningful growth in the group's share of the UK insurance market without a decline in the underwriting or broking EBITDA margins; (2) net profit margins consistently above 10%; (3) a successful expansion across a range of new and existing products targeting the over-50 market segment; and (4) debt-to-EBITDA towards the lower end of Saga's internal 1.5x-2x target on a long-term sustainable basis.

Downward rating pressure could develop if: (1) the company's leverage increases above 3x on a debt-to-EBITDA basis; (2) profitability deteriorates materially, reflected in EBTIDA margins consistently below 20% or Net Profit Margin below 8%; (3) adverse loss development drives a material deterioration in Saga's COR; or (4) the group's revenue and/or market share reduces significantly in its core lines of business.

Moody's has upgraded the following ratings :

Saga Limited: Corporate family rating to Ba1 from Ba2

Saga Limited: Probability of default rating to Ba2-PD from Ba3-PD

Saga MidCo Limited: Backed Senior Secured Term Loan A to Ba1 (LGD3) from Ba2 (LGD3)

Saga MidCo Limited: Backed Senior Secured Revolving Credit Facility from Ba1 (LGD3) from Ba2 (LGD3)

The outlook for both Saga Limited and Saga MidCo Limited is stable.

In fiscal year ended 31 January 2015, Saga reported revenues from continued operations of GBP 900.5 million (YE2014: GBP 944 million) and profit before tax from continued operations of GBP 113.8 million (YE14: GPB 171.3 million). Saga Plc's reported total equity at GBP 1,024.3 million and total assets of GBP 2,731.4 million as at 31 July 2015.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Insurance Brokers and Service Companies published in December 2015. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Helena Kingsley-Tomkins
Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Antonello Aquino
Associate Managing Director
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's upgrades Saga's senior secured debt rating by one notch to Ba1, stable outlook.
No Related Data.
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