London, 30 June 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has today upgraded the ratings of five notes
in three Italian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)
transactions: Cassa Centrale Finance 3 S.r.l.,
Cassa Centrale Securitisation S.r.l. and CREDICO
FINANCE 7 S.R.L.
Today's rating action is prompted by the conclusion of the review of the
Italian banks being counterparties in these transactions.
Please refer to the end of the Ratings Rationale section for a list of
affected ratings.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's rating action concludes the placement on review for upgrade of
five notes after the updates to several Moody's structured finance rating
methodologies.
Moody's has updated several of its cross-sector methodologies
to incorporate the CR Assessments in its analysis of structured finance
transactions. Moody's now matches banks' exposure in
structured finance transactions to one of the three reference points:
either the CR Assessment, bank deposit rating or senior unsecured
rating.
Moody's uses the bank deposit rating to measure the default risk
for exposures associated with account banks and set-off.
Additionally, for bank-related exposures --
e.g., deposits held at a defaulting bank --
Moody's now assumes a recovery rate of 45% in instances when
the risk is measured or modelled.
Please refer to the announcement of the changes to Moody's global
approach to rating structured finance transactions and covered bonds released
on 16 March 2015 (http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PR_320674).
-- COUNTERPARTY RISK EXPOSURE AND UPDATES TO MOODY'S STRUCTURE
FINANCE RATING METHODOLOGIES
Today's rating actions took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as servicer, account banks or
swap providers. Moody's incorporated the updates to its structured
finance methodologies in its analysis of the transactions affected by
today's rating actions (see "Moody's updates several structured finance
rating methodologies in light of its new counterparty risk assessment
for banks", published on 16 March 2015).
Moody's now matches banks' exposure in structured finance transactions
to the CR Assessment for commingling risk. Moody's has introduced
a recovery rate assumption of 45% for this exposure.
Moody's considered how the liquidity available in the transactions and
other mitigants support continuity of note payments, in case of
servicer default, using the CR Assessment as a reference point for
servicers or cash managers.
Moody's also assessed the default probability of each transaction's account
bank providers by referencing the bank's deposit rating. Deutsche
Bank SpA is acting as Transaction bank in all three transactions.
The five tranches upgraded were previously constrained due to account
bank exposure. The methodology updates described above, have
resulted in a decrease of the Issuer Account Bank cap in the three transactions
and contributed to the upgrade of the notes.
Moody's analysis considered the risks of additional losses on the notes
if they were to become unhedged following a swap counterparty default
by using the CR Assessment as reference point for swap counterparties.
-- KEY COLLATERAL ASSUMPTIONS
Moody's revised the Milan CE assumption to 15% from 12%
in both Cassa Centrale Securitisation S.r.l. and
Credico Finance 7 S.R.L. Expected Loss remained unchanged
in all three transactions.
Principal Methodology:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach
to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework", published in January
2015. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
The analysis undertaken by Moody's at the initial assignment of ratings
for RMBS securities may focus on aspects that become less relevant or
typically remain unchanged during the surveillance stage. Please
see Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework for further
information on Moody's analysis at the initial rating assignment and the
on-going surveillance in RMBS.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings
include (1) further decrease in sovereign risk; (2) better-than-expected
performance of the underlying collateral; (3) deleveraging of the
capital structure; and (4) improvements in the credit quality of
the transaction counterparties.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings
include (1) an increase in sovereign risk; (2) worse-than-expected
performance of the underlying collateral; (3) deterioration in the
notes' available credit enhancement; and (4) deterioration in the
credit quality of the transaction counterparties.
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS
Issuer: Cassa Centrale Finance 3 S.r.l.
....EUR368.5M A Notes, Upgraded
to Aa2 (sf); previously on Mar 20, 2015 A2 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
Issuer: Cassa Centrale Securitisation S.r.l.
....EUR202.05M A2 Notes, Upgraded
to Aa2 (sf); previously on Mar 20, 2015 A2 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
....EUR17.5M B Notes, Upgraded
to Aa3 (sf); previously on Mar 20, 2015 Baa2 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
Issuer: CREDICO FINANCE 7 S.R.L.
....EUR451.65M A Notes, Upgraded
to Aa2 (sf); previously on Mar 20, 2015 A2 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
....EUR16.7M B Notes, Upgraded
to Aa2 (sf); previously on Mar 20, 2015 Baa2 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity
analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity
to Assumptions of the disclosure form.
The analysis relies on an assessment of collateral characteristics to
determine the collateral loss distribution, that is, the function
that correlates to an assumption about the likelihood of occurrence to
each level of possible losses in the collateral. As a second step,
Moody's evaluates each possible collateral loss scenario using a
model that replicates the relevant structural features to derive payments
and therefore the ultimate potential losses for each rated instrument.
The loss a rated instrument incurs in each collateral loss scenario,
weighted by assumptions about the likelihood of events in that scenario
occurring, results in the expected loss of the rated instrument.
Moody's quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios
that stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into
account the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows.
Moody's weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its
assumptions of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Cristina Quintana
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Christophe de Noaillat
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Nadia Lamniai
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's upgrades five notes in three Italian RMBS transactions