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Rating Action:

Moody's upgrades four Indian financial institutions' ratings

17 Nov 2017

Singapore, November 17, 2017 -- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded the long-term ratings of four Indian financial institutions to Baa2 from Baa3. The four are: (1) Export-Import Bank of India (EXIM India), (2) HDFC Bank Limited (HDFC Bank), (3) Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (IRFC), and (4) State Bank of India (SBI).

In the case of HDFC Bank, Moody's has also upgraded the bank's baseline credit assessment (BCA) and adjusted BCA to baa2 from baa3.

And, Moody's has upgraded the Counterparty Risk Assessment (CR Assessment) of HDFC Bank and its Hong Kong branch to Baa1(cr) from Baa2(cr); and of SBI, its Hong Kong, London and Nassau branches to Baa2(cr)/P-2(cr) from Baa3(cr)/P-3(cr). In addition, Moody's has assigned a CR Assessment of Baa2(cr)/P-2(cr) to State Bank of India, DIFC branch.

In addition, Moody's has changed to stable from positive the ratings outlook for IRFC; EXIM India and its London branch; HDFC Bank, its Bahrain and Hong Kong branches; as well as SBI and its Hong Kong, London, and Nassau branches. Moody's has assigned a stable outlook to SBI's DIFC branch.

Moody's rating actions follow the upgrade of the Government of India's local and foreign currency issuer ratings to Baa2 from Baa3 on 16 November 2017. For more information on the sovereign credit rating action, please refer to the Government of India's issuer page on www.moodys.com.

Please click on this link http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_197817 for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. The list is an integral part of this Press Release and identifies each affected issuer.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Please click on this link http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_197817 for the List of Affected Credit Ratings. This list is an integral part of this Press Release and provides, for each of the credit ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the following items:

Newly Issued Instrument

Principal Methodologies

UPGRADE OF THE FOUR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS' SENIOR UNSECURED RATINGS; OUTLOOK REVISED TO STABLE FROM POSITIVE

The rating actions are in line with Moody's upgrade of the Government of India's local and foreign currency issuer ratings to Baa2 from Baa3 with a stable outlook. The sovereign action is discussed in greater detail in Moody's press release dated 16 November 2017 (http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PR_374998).

The government's credit strength is an important input in Moody's deposit and debt ratings for financial institutions, because it impacts Moody's assessment of the government's capacity to provide support in times of stress. As such, an improvement in the government's own creditworthiness, as measured by its sovereign rating, has lifted the supported ratings for EXIM India, IRFC and SBI.

Prior to this rating action, HDFC Bank's BCA and ratings were constrained by India's previous sovereign rating of Baa3 given the bank's significant exposure to the Indian government in common with other Indian banks. As such, an upgrade of the sovereign rating also drove an upgrade of the bank's BCA and ratings.

The stable outlook on the four financial institutions ratings is in line with the stable outlook on the Indian sovereign's rating.

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE BANKS

Moody's continues to assess India's Macro Profile (operating environment for the banks) as Moderate. The assessment incorporates the weak, but stable credit conditions in the country, with such a situation representing the key risk to the banks' balance sheets. Corporate leverage has started to fall and asset quality deterioration for the banks has peaked. Furthermore, the clean-up of balance sheets is underway, with the latest effort being the asset quality review conducted by the Reserve Bank of India in December 2015 and the promulgation of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code 2016.

The capitalization profile of the public sector banks — a segment which accounts for nearly 70% of total banking system assets — remains far below that of their private sector peers. To a large extent, the capital shortfall has been addressed by the government's announcement on 24 October 2017 of a recapitalization plan for public sector banks, which should help facilitate these banks in writing down bad loans.

However, the credit implication will depend on the hair-cuts that the banks will need to take in the resolution process and the developments in their other credit metrics after the process is complete.

Funding remains a credit strength for Indian banks. The banks' funding and liquidity profiles — which are largely funded by customer deposits with limited reliance on confidence sensitive market funding — have remained stable.

DISCUSSION ON INDIVIDUAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

EXIM INDIA

Incorporated under the Export-Import Bank of India Act 1981, EXIM India, in addition to servicing the needs of export-oriented companies and promoting the government's external trade policy objectives, plays a part in executing the government's foreign policy goals. Around half of its loan book is composed of extending credit lines for projects which had been agreed upon in bilateral agreements between the Government of India and the beneficiary country, indicating the close alignment of the bank with one of the very important functions of the government. By law, the government has to own a 100% stake in the bank.

Because of these features, Moody's support assumption for Exim India's senior unsecured and deposit ratings is government-backed. This results in a four notch uplift from its ba3 BCA.

HDFC BANK

HDFC Bank's long-term rating of Baa2 is underpinned by the bank's BCA of baa2. Moody's also assumes a high probability of government support in the event of financial distress, considering HDFC's status as the largest private sector bank in India by assets, its large retail deposit franchise and its importance to the national payments system. Given that the bank's BCA is already at baa2, this high support assumption does not result in any additional uplift to the bank's deposit or debt ratings.

The upgrade of HDFC Bank's BCA and adjusted BCA to baa2 from baa3 reflects the bank's standalone credit strength and prudent underwriting policies, which has translated into its superior financial performance compared with similarly rated peers in India. The bank's BCA also reflects its consistent and strong financial results. Specifically, the bank's performance in terms of profitability, capital and asset quality metrics has been better than the average for the Indian banking system. Prior to this rating action, HDFC Bank's BCA was constrained by India's previous sovereign rating of Baa3 given the bank's significant exposure to the Indian government in common with other Indian banks.

IRFC

IRFC's ratings are derived primarily from its close links with the government, because the company is the exclusive borrowing arm of the Ministry of Railways (MOR). IRFC raises funds for capital investment in Indian railway infrastructure, which it then leases to the ministry. Moody's has determined that IRFC's credit profile is inseparable from the government's credit profile, given the control exercised by the MOR over IRFC and its assets. Government policies and the level of support provided by the ministry are, therefore, the main factors in determining IRFC's funding costs, the growth in its profitability and, ultimately, its overall credit quality. The company's ratings are therefore in line with the foreign-currency bond rating of the Government of India.

STATE BANK OF INDIA

SBI's long-term deposit rating of Baa2 is underpinned by the bank's BCA of ba1 and a very high probability of government support for SBI, in the event of stress, given the bank's status as the largest commercial bank in India, with a sizeable 23% share of total system deposits and 20% of system loans as of 30 September 2017. The government owns a 57% stake in SBI and is visibly involved in the management of the bank, including the appointment of senior managers and setting of key performance indicators.

SBI's BCA of ba1 incorporates the stable but weak asset quality metrics of the bank — with such metrics deteriorating significantly after the merger with associate banks — and also because of the economic disruptions in the last few quarters. These risks are largely mitigated, given the bank's loss absorbing buffers; specifically, its improving capitalization and loan loss reserves. The bank's strong funding and liquidity profiles represent its key credit strengths.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP

EXIM India

EXIM India's foreign-currency debt rating could be upgraded, if the sovereign's foreign-currency debt rating is upgraded and the bank's financial metrics — including its asset quality — improve materially. Moody's considers such a scenario highly unlikely over the next 12-18 months, because of the challenging economic environment.

HDFC Bank

HDFC Bank's deposit and senior unsecured ratings could be upgraded, if India's sovereign rating is upgraded.

IRFC

IRFC's issuer rating could be upgraded, if Moody's upgrades the sovereign's foreign currency debt rating.

SBI

SBI's ratings could be upgraded if Moody's upgrades India's sovereign rating. The bank's BCA could experience upward pressure if: (1) asset quality, as measured by new problem loan formation, and profitability, as measured by returns on assets, improve on a sustainable basis; and (2) capital strengthens, with an improvement in its common equity Tier 1 ratio.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS DOWN

EXIM India

The ratings could face negative pressure if: (1) there are signs that suggest the bank's links with the government are weakening, or its policy role becomes less important to the economy; (2) the sovereign's foreign-currency debt rating is downgraded; or (3) the bank's asset quality worsens materially.

HDFC Bank

Downward pressure on HDFC's BCA and ratings could arise from: (1) a sustained deterioration in impaired loans or loan-loss reserves; (2) a significantly higher new nonperforming loan formation rate than that previously experienced; (3) a decline in earnings, leading to a significant decrease in internal capital generation; or (4) a downgrade in the sovereign's foreign-currency debt rating.

IRFC

The ratings could face negative pressure if: (1) IRFC's lease finance business with the MOR changes in such a way that the company's credit exposure to the MOR or its entities falls below 90% of its total credit; (2) a breach occurs in IRFC's leverage limit of 10x; (3) there is a change in the government's supportive stance toward IRFC; or (4) Moody's downgrades the sovereign's foreign-currency debt rating.

SBI

Downward pressure on SBI's standalone credit profile or its BCA will arise if further credit losses worsen its capital position. Additionally, any indications that support from the Government of India has diminished or that additional capital requirements may arise beyond the government's budgeted amount could put the bank's deposit and senior unsecured MTN ratings under pressure.

Export-Import Bank of India, headquartered in Mumbai, reported total assets of INR1.2 trillion (USD18 billion) at 31 March 2017.

HDFC Bank Limited, headquartered in Mumbai, reported total assets of INR9.3 trillion (USD143 billion) at 30 September 2017.

Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited, headquartered in New Delhi, reported total assets of INR1.3 trillion (USD20 billion) at 31 March 2017.

State Bank of India, headquartered in Mumbai, reported total assets of INR32.4 trillion (USD496 billion) at 30 September 2017.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

The below contact information is provided for information purposes only. Please see the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com, for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the lead rating analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued the ratings.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Alka Anbarasu
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Financial Institutions Group
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Gene Fang
Associate Managing Director
Financial Institutions Group
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Singapore Pte. Ltd.
50 Raffles Place #23-06
Singapore Land Tower
Singapore 48623
Singapore
JOURNALISTS: 852 3758 1350
Client Service: 852 3551 3077

No Related Data.
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