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Rating Action:

Moody's upgrades notes in 2 Leek Finance and 1 Marble Arch transactions, UK Non-conforming RMBS

23 Apr 2015

London, 23 April 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has today upgraded 15 notes and affirmed 8 notes in 3 UK non-conforming residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions: Leek Finance Number Seventeen PLC (Leek 17), Leek Finance Number Nineteen PLC (Leek 19), and Marble Arch Residential Securitisation No. 3 Limited (Marble Arch 3).

Today's rating actions conclude the ratings review of 12 notes placed on review for upgrade on 9 December 2014.

Please refer to the end of the Ratings Rationale section for a list of affected ratings.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Today's rating upgrades are driven by (1) the increased credit enhancement (CE) available to the notes and (2) the improved key collateral assumptions.

INCREASED CREDIT ENHANCEMENT AVAILABLE TO THE NOTES

All three transactions have deleveraged to pool factor 36.5%, 55.7% and 13.2% for Leek 17, Leek 19 and Marble Arch 3 respectively. The deleveraging increased the credit support for the senior notes. At the same time, all rated notes in these 3 transactions have no principal deficiency and all 3 transactions have non-amortizing reserve funds. Consequently, the CE available to all notes has increased.

For the Leek 17 and Leek 19 transactions, significant additional CE, at 34.5% of current rated notes, was added to the structure through the addition of UK government Gilts during the transaction restructuring in June 2011.

KEY COLLATERAL ASSUMPTIONS

The current MILAN CE assumptions in all three transactions were revised and increased between 2009 and 2010. Since then, the UK house prices have improved and consequently reduced the loan to value (LTV) ratio on the loans in the collateral pools. Improved LTV ratios reduce the potential loss severity of the non-performing loans. As a result, Moody's has reduced MILAN CE assumptions for Leek 17, Leek 19 and Marble Arch 3 to 16.5% from 23%, to 19.5% from 25%, and to 31.5% from 38%, respectively.

The performance of all 3 transactions are in line with Moody's expectations. Moody's is not revising the transactions' expected loss assumptions.

RATING SENSITIVITY TO PERFORMANCE ASSUMPTIONS

Moody's quantitative analysis incorporates the ratings' sensitivity to increases in key collateral performance assumptions. The increases include a stress of 1.25 or 1.5 times of the current EL assumption and 1.2 times of the current MILAN CE assumption. Moody's sensitivity analysis would typically expect to see the ratings fall by no more than one to three notches using these stressed assumptions. The results of this analysis limited the scale of rating upgrades on Classes Da and Dc notes in Leek 19, and Class M2 notes in Marble Arch 3.

COUNTERPARTY RISK EXPOSURE

For Marble Arch 3, Moody's considers the back-up arrangement for servicing and cash management with Capita Mortgage Service Limited not sufficient to ensure, in all circumstances, the timely payment of principal and interest on the notes and payments to the cross-currency swap provider. There is limited time available in the structure between the determination date and the payment date. Moody's also takes into consideration the grace periods under the notes and the cross-currency swaps. The lack of a highly-rated entity performing the servicing and cash management functions results in the rating affirmations on Classes A1a and A1b and the rating on Class M1 capped at Aa2 (sf).

Moody's analysis considers the risk of additional losses on the notes if they were to become unhedged following a swap counterparty default. Moody's concludes that ratings on Class Cc notes in Leek 17 and Classes Ca and Cc notes in Leek 19 are constrained at Aa1 (sf) due to the level of their exposure to the currency swap counterparty, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (Aa3, on review for upgrade/P-1) and the level of available credit enhancement.

Principal Methodology:

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in January 2015. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:

Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings include (1) performance of the underlying collateral that is better than Moody's expected, (2) deleveraging of the capital structure and (3) improvements in the credit quality of the transaction counterparties.

Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings include (1) performance of the underlying collateral that is worse than Moody's expects, (2) deterioration in the notes' available credit enhancement and (3) deterioration in the credit quality of the transaction counterparties.

List of Affected Ratings:

Issuer: Leek Finance Number Seventeen PLC

....GBP 270M Class A2a Notes, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Feb 24, 2014 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)

....USD 462M Class A2b Notes, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Feb 24, 2014 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)

....EUR 365M Class A2c Notes, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Feb 24, 2014 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)

....GBP 22M Class Ba Notes, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2014 Aa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....EUR 39.5M Class Bc Notes, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2014 Aa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....EUR 48M Class Cc Notes, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2014 A2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....EUR 105.6M Class Mc Notes, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Feb 24, 2014 Confirmed at Aa1 (sf)

Issuer: Leek Finance Number Nineteen PLC

....GBP 110M Class A2a Notes, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Feb 24, 2014 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)

....USD 624.1M Class A2b Notes, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Feb 24, 2014 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)

....EUR 124.5M Class A2c Notes, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Feb 24, 2014 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)

....GBP 12M Class Ba Notes, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2014 Aa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....EUR 51M Class Bc Notes, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2014 Aa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....GBP 6M Class Ca Notes, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2014 A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....EUR 32.9M Class Cc Notes, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2014 A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....GBP 13M Class Da Notes, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2014 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....EUR 6.7M Class Dc Notes, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2014 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....GBP 23M Class Ma Notes, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Feb 24, 2014 Confirmed at Aa1 (sf)

....EUR 68M Class Mc Notes, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Feb 24, 2014 Confirmed at Aa1 (sf)

Issuer: Marble Arch Residential Securitisation No. 3 Limited

....GBP 132M Class A1a Notes, Affirmed Aa2 (sf); previously on Feb 11, 2010 Downgraded to Aa2 (sf)

....EUR 221M Class A1b Notes, Affirmed Aa2 (sf); previously on Feb 11, 2010 Downgraded to Aa2 (sf)

....GBP 10.55M Class B1 Notes, Upgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2014 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....GBP 16.25M Class M1 Notes, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2014 Aa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

....GBP 13.8M Class M2 Notes, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Dec 9, 2014 A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.

Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of these transactions in the past six months.

The analysis relies on an assessment of collateral characteristics to determine the collateral loss distribution, that is, the function that correlates to an assumption about the likelihood of occurrence to each level of possible losses in the collateral. As a second step, Moody's evaluates each possible collateral loss scenario using a model that replicates the relevant structural features to derive payments and therefore the ultimate potential losses for each rated instrument. The loss a rated instrument incurs in each collateral loss scenario, weighted by assumptions about the likelihood of events in that scenario occurring, results in the expected loss of the rated instrument.

Moody's quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody's weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

The below contact information is provided for information purposes only. Please see the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com, for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the lead analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued the ratings.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

Kevin Ma
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Christophe de Noaillat
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454

Moody's upgrades notes in 2 Leek Finance and 1 Marble Arch transactions, UK Non-conforming RMBS
No Related Data.
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