London, 12 August 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded eight mezzanine & junior notes
issued by Marble Arch Residential Securitisation No. 4 plc,
five mezzanine and junior notes issued by Preferred Residential Securities
05-1 PLC and one mezzanine note issued by Preferred Residential
Securities 7 PLC. The increase in available credit enhancement
in all three deals and improved collateral performance in Preferred Residential
Securities 7 PLC prompted today's upgrades. Moody's also confirmed
the rating of one junior note in Preferred Residential Securities 7 PLC
and affirmed the ratings of all the remaining notes in the three affected
deals. Please refer to the list of the affected ratings at the
end of this press release, before the regulatory disclosure section.
The list is an integral part of this press release and identifies each
affected rating.
On 16 April 2014 Moody's placed on review for upgrade the rating of the
class C1 and D1 notes in Marble Arch Residential Securitisation No.
4 plc and the class B1 and C1 notes in Preferred Residential Securities
05-1 PLC due to an increase in available credit enhancement.
Moody's also placed on review for upgrade the ratings of the class
D notes of Preferred Residential Securities 7 PLC due to an increase in
credit enhancement and an improvement in the collateral performance.
Today's rating actions conclude these reviews.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's upgrades reflect increases in available credit enhancement in
all three affected transactions and better than expected collateral performance
in Preferred Residential Securities 7 PLC. Moody's has confirmed
the ratings of the class D notes in Preferred Residential Securities 7
PLC due to the impact of the liquidity facility fees on the excess spread.
Moody's affirmed the senior notes in all three affected deals because
the payment disruption risk caps the ratings at Aa1 (sf).
--- Increase in available credit enhancement
The increase in the credit enhancement was driven by deleveraging of the
structures and, in the case of Marble Arch Residential Securitisitation
No.4 plc, excess spread capture by replenishment of the reserve
fund.
The notes are amortising sequentially following the breach of the performance
triggers based on a level of 22.5% of 90+ days delinquencies
over current principal pool balance. The share of loans more than
3 months in arrears is currently 27.4% in Marble Arch Residential
Securitisation No. 4 plc, 41.2% in Preferred
Residential Securities 05-1 PLC and 36.9% for Preferred
Residential Securities 7 PLC.
During the previous rating action in 2009, the reserve fund was
fully drawn in Marble Arch Residential Securitisation No.4 plc
and there was a Principal Deficiency Ledger of 240,267 pounds.
The reserve fund has been fully funded since June 2012 following excess
spread capture.
Moody's confirmed the rating of the class D notes in Preferred Residential
Securities 7 PLC because the credit enhancement available to this class
may decrease as the rating agency expects the excess spread to turn negative
in the future. The reserve fund is the only source of credit enhancement
available to the class D notes. The issuer pays substantial fixed
fees in priority to noteholders, in particular interest margin and
mandatory costs related to the standby liquidity facility drawing.
Since the size of the standby drawing is not amortising in line with the
pool balance, the fees as a percentage of the spread increase every
quarter providing substantial drag on the excess spread in the deal.
--- Collateral performance
The collateral performance in Preferred Residential Securities 7 PLC has
been better than expected by Moody's. The cumulative losses
realised since closing are equal to 0.9% of the original
pool balance, a minor increase from 0.7% of the original
pool balance realized as of March 2010.The weighted average loss
severity since inception remained low at 11.2%, driven
by low loan to indexed value ratio of 46%. Loan to indexed
value ratio was 52% in March 2010. Decrease in the indexed
loan to value since the previous review of the assumptions in March 2010
led to lower expected severity for the MILAN CE calculations. Moody's
has decreased its expected loss assumption to 1.2% from
1.5% of the original pool balance and has decreased the
MILAN CE assumption to 19% from 23%. The expected
loss and the MILAN CE are the two key parameters used by Moody's to calibrate
the loss distribution curve, which is one of the inputs into the
RMBS cash-flow model.
The securitised portfolios in Marble Arch Residential Securitisation No.
4 plc and Preferred Residential Securities 05-1 PLC are performing
in line with Moody's expectations. Moody's maintained its expected
loss at 7.0% and 4% of the original pool balance
respectively. Moody's also maintained its MILAN CE assumptions
for both deals at 32% for Marble Arch Residential Securitisation
No. 4 plc and 31% for Preferred Residential Securities 05-1.
--- The ratings of senior notes are constrained by
the payment disruption risk
Moody's did not upgrade the senior notes in the three affected deals
because the ratings are capped at Aa1 (sf) due to the payment disruption
risk. Despite the presence of back-up servicer and cash
manager in the structure, the back-up arrangements are not
sufficiently warm to avoid payment disruption in case of cash manager
default. Acenden Limited (NR) is the servicer and cash manager
of these three transactions. Homeloan Management Limited (NR) acts
as the back-up servicer and back-up cash manager.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach
to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in March 2014.
Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for
a copy of this methodology.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating:
Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings
include (1) a better than expected performance of the underlying collateral,
and (2) further deleveraging of the capital structure and (3) improvement
in the credit quality of the key transaction counterparties.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings
include (1) a worse than expected performance of the underlying collateral
(2) deterioration in the notes' available credit enhancement and (3) deterioration
in the credit quality of the key transaction counterparties.
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS
Issuer: Marble Arch Residential Securitisation No. 4 plc
....GBP231M A3c Notes, Affirmed Aa1
(sf); previously on Oct 30, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)
....EUR36.4M B1a Notes, Upgraded
to Aa1 (sf); previously on Oct 30, 2009 Confirmed at Aa3 (sf)
....US$27.1M B1b Notes,
Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Oct 30, 2009 Confirmed
at Aa3 (sf)
....GBP20M B1c Notes, Upgraded to Aa1
(sf); previously on Oct 30, 2009 Confirmed at Aa3 (sf)
....US$43.45M C1a Notes,
Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Apr 16, 2014 A2 (sf) Placed
Under Review for Possible Upgrade
....GBP15M C1c Notes, Upgraded to Aa3
(sf); previously on Apr 16, 2014 A2 (sf) Placed Under Review
for Possible Upgrade
....EUR20.7M D1a Notes, Upgraded
to Ba2 (sf); previously on Apr 16, 2014 B2 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
....GBP26M D1c Notes, Upgraded to Ba2
(sf); previously on Apr 16, 2014 B2 (sf) Placed Under Review
for Possible Upgrade
....GBP25.2M E1c Notes, Upgraded
to Caa3 (sf); previously on Oct 30, 2009 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Issuer: Preferred Residential Securities 05-1 PLC
....GBP218.6M A2c Notes, Affirmed
Aa1 (sf); previously on Dec 21, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)
....EUR7M B1a Notes, Upgraded to Aa1
(sf); previously on Apr 16, 2014 Aa3 (sf) Placed Under Review
for Possible Upgrade
....GBP22.6M B1c Notes, Upgraded
to Aa1 (sf); previously on Apr 16, 2014 Aa3 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
....GBP10.8M C1c Notes, Upgraded
to Aa2 (sf); previously on Apr 16, 2014 A2 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
....GBP15.8M D1c Notes, Upgraded
to B3 (sf); previously on Dec 21, 2009 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
....GBP3.4M E Notes, Upgraded
to Ca (sf); previously on Dec 21, 2009 Downgraded to C (sf)
Issuer: Preferred Residential Securities 7 PLC
....GBP309.6M A2 Notes, Affirmed
Aa1 (sf); previously on Mar 30, 2010 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)
....GBP40.5M B Notes, Upgraded
to Aa1 (sf); previously on Mar 30, 2010 Upgraded to Aa2 (sf)
....GBP37.5M C Notes, Affirmed
A2 (sf); previously on Mar 30, 2010 Upgraded to A2 (sf)
....GBP6M D Notes, Confirmed at Baa1
(sf); previously on Apr 16, 2014 Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review
for Possible Upgrade
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party
assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets
or financial instruments related to the monitoring of these transactions
in the past six months.
The analysis relies on an assessment of collateral characteristics to
determine the collateral loss distribution, that is, the function
that correlates to an assumption about the likelihood of occurrence to
each level of possible losses in the collateral. As a second step,
Moody's evaluates each possible collateral loss scenario using a
model that replicates the relevant structural features to derive payments
and therefore the ultimate potential losses for each rated instrument.
The loss a rated instrument incurs in each collateral loss scenario,
weighted by assumptions about the likelihood of events in that scenario
occurring, results in the expected loss of the rated instrument.
As the section on loss and cash flow analysis describes, Moody's
quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors
contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood
of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody's
weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of
the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Lyudmila Udot
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Christophe de Noaillat
MD - Structured Finance
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's upgrades notes in Marble Arch Residential Securitisation No 4 and Preferred Residential Securities 05-1 and 7