New York, September 13, 2016 -- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded the rating on notes issued by ACA
ABS 2004-1, LIMITED:
U.S.$47,250,000 Class B Senior Secured
Floating Rate Notes Due July 16, 2039 (current outstanding balance
of $18,735,922), Upgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously
on May 7, 2014 Upgraded to Caa3 (sf).
ACA ABS 2004-1, LIMITED, issued in May 2004,
is a collateralized debt obligation backed primarily by a portfolio of
RMBS and CRE CDOs originated in 2003 and 2004.
RATINGS RATIONALE
These rating action is due primarily to deleveraging of the senior notes
and an increase in the transaction's over-collateralization ("OC")
ratio since January 2016. The Class B notes have been paid down
by approximately 30.7%, or $13.0 million,
since that time. Based on the trustee's August 2016 report,
the OC ratio for the Class B notes is reported at 105.21%,
versus 61.15% in January 2016. The paydown of the
Class B notes is partially the result of cash collections from certain
assets treated as defaulted by the trustee in amounts materially exceeding
expectations.
The deal has also benefited from an improvement in the credit quality
of the underlying portfolio since January 2016. Based on the trustee's
August 2016 report, the weighted average rating factor is currently
1031, compared to 1135 in January 2016.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action
The prinicpal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to
Rating SF CDOs," published in July 2015. Please see the Ratings
Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this
methodology.
Factors That Would Lead To an Upgrade or Downgrade of the Rating:
This transaction is subject to a number of factors and circumstances that
could lead to either an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings, as
described below:
1) Primary causes of uncertainty about assumptions are the extent of any
deterioration in either consumer or commercial credit conditions and in
the commercial and residential real estate property markets. Commercial
real estate property market is subject to uncertainty about general economic
conditions including commercial real estate prices, investment activities,
and economic performances.The residential real estate property
market's uncertainties include housing prices; the pace of
residential mortgage foreclosures, loan modifications and refinancing;
the unemployment rate; and interest rates.
2) Deleveraging: One source of uncertainty in this transaction is
whether deleveraging from principal proceeds, recoveries from defaulted
assets, and excess interest proceeds will continue and at what pace.
Faster than expected deleveraging could have a significantly positive
impact on the notes' ratings.
3) Recovery of defaulted assets: The amount of recoveries received
from defaulted assets reported by the trustee and those that Moody's
assumes as having defaulted as well as the timing of these recoveries
create additional uncertainty. Moody's analyzed defaulted
assets assuming limited recoveries, and therefore, realization
of any recoveries exceeding Moody's expectation in the future would
positively impact the notes' ratings.
Loss and Cash Flow Analysis:
Moody's applies a Monte Carlo simulation framework in Moody's
CDOROM™ to model the loss distribution for SF CDOs. The simulated
defaults and recoveries for each of the Monte Carlo scenarios define the
reference pool's loss distribution. Moody's then uses
the loss distribution as an input in the CDOEdge™ cash flow model.
In addition to the base case analysis, Moody's also conducted sensitivity
analyses to test the impact of a number of default probabilities on the
rated notes. Below is a summary of the impact of different default
probabilities (expressed in terms of WARF) on all of the rated notes (by
the difference in the number of notches versus the current model output,
for which a positive difference corresponds to lower expected loss):
Ba1 and below ratings notched up by two rating notches (1226):
Class B: +2
Class C-1: 0
Class C-2: 0
Ba1 and below ratings notched down by two notches (2777):
Class B: -1
Class C-1: 0
Class C-2: 0
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity
analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity
to Assumptions of the disclosure form.
Moody's describes its loss and cash flow analysis in the section
"Ratings Rationale" of this press release.
Moody's quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios
that stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into
account the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows.
Moody's weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its
assumptions of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to
each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their
credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating.
For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory
disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and
in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to
the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction
structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive
rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further
information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the
respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action,
and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action,
the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Aileen Wang
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
David Ham
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653