London, 25 February 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has today upgraded the ratings of five notes
in the four Spanish residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)
transactions: MADRID ICO FTVPO I, FTA; Madrid Residencial
I, FTA; Madrid Residencial II, FTA and MADRID RMBS IV,
FTA.
Today's rating action concludes the review of five notes initiated on
23 January 2015, following the upgrade of the Spanish country ceiling
to Aa2 from A1 (http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PR_316959).
Please refer to the end of the Ratings Rationale section for a list of
affected ratings.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's rating upgrades reflect (1) the increase in the Spanish local-currency
country ceiling to Aa2, (2) sufficiency of credit enhancement in
the affected transactions for the revised rating levels, (3) a decrease
in the portfolio CE assumptions reflecting the change in performance and
updated portfolio characteristics and (4) in case of Madrid Residential
I, FTA and Madrid Residential II, FTA a decrease in the expected
loss assumption due to a better collateral performance than expected.
-- Reduced Sovereign Risk
The country ceilings reflect a range of risks that issuers in any jurisdiction
are exposed to, including economic, legal and political risks.
On 20 January 2015, Moody's announced a six-notch uplift
between a government bond rating and its country risk ceiling for Spain.
As a result, the maximum achievable rating for structured finance
transactions was increased to Aa2 (sf) from A1 (sf) for Spain.
-- Key collateral assumptions
Moody's has reassessed its lifetime loss expectation taking into account
the collateral performance of the transactions to date. The assumption
of 1.64% and 11.60% over original balance
has not been updated in MADRID ICO FTVPO I, FTA and MADRID RMBS
IV, FTA as the performance of the underlying asset portfolio remains
in line with Moody's assumptions. However, in Madrid Residencial
I, FTA and Madrid Residencial II, FTA the Expected Loss assumption
as a percentage over original balance has been decreased to 6.35%
from 9.50% and to 8.00% from 9.50%
due to a better performance of the underlying assets than expected.
For Madrid Residencial I, FTA the 90+ days delinquencies have
decreased to 1.23% from 1.69% over current
balance compared to May 2013. For Madrid Residencial II,
FTA the 90+ days delinquencies have decreased to 1.04%
from 1.73% over current balance in the same period.
Moody's has also revised the MILAN CE assumption to 12% in MADRID
ICO FTVPO I, FTA, to 22% in Madrid Residencial I,
FTA, to 25% in Madrid Residencial II, FTA and to 25%
in MADRID RMBS IV, FTA down from 15%, 28.5%,
32% and 35%, respectively, reflecting the change
in performance and updated portfolio characteristics.
-- Exposure to Counterparties
Moody's rating analysis also took into consideration the exposure to key
transaction counterparties including the roles of servicer, account
bank and swap provider.
Today's rating action takes into account the servicer commingling exposure
to Bankia, S.A. (B1/NP) for the four transactions.
Moody's also assessed when revising ratings the exposure to Banco Bilbao
Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (Baa2/P-2) acting
as swap counterparty in the transactions.
Principal Methodology
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach
to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in January 2015.
Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for
a copy of this methodology.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings
include (1) further reduction in sovereign risk, (2) performance
of the underlying collateral that is better than Moody's expected,
(3) deleveraging of the capital structure and (4) improvements in the
credit quality of the transaction counterparties.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings
include (1) an increase in sovereign risk, (2) performance of the
underlying collateral that is worse than Moody's expects, (3) deterioration
in the notes' available credit enhancement and (4) deterioration in the
credit quality of the transaction counterparties.
LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS
Issuer: MADRID ICO FTVPO I, FTA
....EUR260.3M A Notes, Upgraded
to Aa2 (sf); previously on Jan 23, 2015 A1 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
Issuer: Madrid Residencial I, FTA
....EUR607.7M Notes, Upgraded
to Aa2 (sf); previously on Jan 23, 2015 A1 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
Issuer: Madrid Residencial II, FTA
....EUR456M A Notes, Upgraded to Aa2
(sf); previously on Jan 23, 2015 A1 (sf) Placed Under Review
for Possible Upgrade
Issuer: MADRID RMBS IV, FTA
....EUR1351.2M A1 Notes, Upgraded
to Aa2 (sf); previously on Jan 23, 2015 A1 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
....EUR835.2M A2 Notes, Upgraded
to Aa3 (sf); previously on Jan 23, 2015 A3 (sf) Placed Under
Review for Possible Upgrade
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and sensitivity
analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity
to Assumptions of the disclosure form.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment
on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial
instruments related to the monitoring of these transactions in the past
six months.
The analysis relies on an assessment of collateral characteristics to
determine the collateral loss distribution, that is, the function
that correlates to an assumption about the likelihood of occurrence to
each level of possible losses in the collateral. As a second step,
Moody's evaluates each possible collateral loss scenario using a
model that replicates the relevant structural features to derive payments
and therefore the ultimate potential losses for each rated instrument.
The loss a rated instrument incurs in each collateral loss scenario,
weighted by assumptions about the likelihood of events in that scenario
occurring, results in the expected loss of the rated instrument.
Moody's quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios
that stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into
account the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows.
Moody's weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its
assumptions of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
The below contact information is provided for information purposes only.
Please see the ratings tab of the issuer page at www.moodys.com,
for each of the ratings covered, Moody's disclosures on the
lead analyst and the Moody's legal entity that has issued the ratings.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Nadia Lamniai
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Masako Oshima
Senior Vice President
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Gaby Trinkaus
AVP - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454
Moody's upgrades the rating of five notes in four Madrid RMBS transactions