USD $14 million of debt securities affected
New York, January 21, 2011 -- Moody's Investors Service announced today that it has upgraded the rating
of the following notes issued by Duane Street CLO III, Ltd.:
U.S. $14,000,000 Class E Deferrable Junior
Floating Rate Notes Due 2021, Upgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously
on November 23, 2010 Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade.
According to Moody's, the rating action taken on the notes
results primarily from improvement in the credit quality of the underlying
portfolio and an increase in the overcollateralization ratios of the notes
since the rating action in June 2009. In Moody's view, these
positive developments coincide with reinvestment of sale proceeds (including
higher than previously anticipated recoveries realized on defaulted securities)
into substitute assets with higher par amounts and/or higher ratings.
Improvement in the credit quality is observed through an improvement in
the average credit rating (as measured by the weighted average rating
factor) and a decrease in the proportion of securities from issuers rated
Caa1 and below. In particular, as of the latest trustee report
dated November 30, 2010, the weighted average rating factor
is currently 2487 compared to 2696 in the April 2009 report, and
securities rated Caa1/CCC+ or lower make up approximately 4.9%
of the underlying portfolio versus 7.6% in April 2009.
Additionally, defaulted securities total about $5.6
million of the underlying portfolio compared to $39.7million
in April 2009.
The overcollateralization ratios of the rated notes have also improved
since the rating action in June 2009. The Senior and Mezzanine
overcollateralization ratios are reported at 120.7% and
107.0% respectively, versus April 2009 levels of 117.9%
and 104.5%, respectively, and all related overcollateralization
tests are currently in compliance.
The ratings of the senior notes (Class A-1, Class A-2a,
Class A-2b, Class B, Class C, and Class D Notes)
remain unchanged, reflecting the combined impact of improvements
in the credit quality of the underlying portfolio and corrections to certain
assumptions and modeling used in the previous rating action. Since
the rating action in June 2009, the trustee has revised the spread
for Lamar Media Corp -- Series F Incremental Loan, correcting
a mistaken earlier report that Moody's used to calculate the weighted
average spread. Additionally, the loss threshold was incorrectly
modeled in the June 2009 rating action. The notes have been remodeled
using the corrected weighted average spread and loss threshold,
resulting in no change to the ratings of these notes.
Due to the impact of revised and updated key assumptions referenced in
"Moody's Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" and
"Annual Sector Review (2009): Global CLOs," key
model inputs used by Moody's in its analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score, and weighted
average recovery rate, may be different from the trustee's reported
numbers. In its base case, Moody's analyzed the underlying
collateral pool to have a performing par and principal proceeds of $534
million, defaulted par of $5.1 million, weighted
average default probability of 28.7% (implying a WARF of
3707), a weighted average recovery rate upon default of 42.95%,
and a diversity score of 50. These default and recovery properties
of the collateral pool are incorporated in cash flow model analysis where
they are subject to stresses as a function of the target rating of each
CLO liability being reviewed. The default probability is derived
from the credit quality of the collateral pool and Moody's expectation
of the remaining life of the collateral pool. The average recovery
rate to be realized on future defaults is based primarily on the seniority
of the assets in the collateral pool. In each case, historical
and market performance trends and collateral manager latitude for trading
the collateral are also factors.
Duane Street CLO III, Ltd., issued in December 2006,
is a collateralized loan obligation backed primarily by a portfolio of
senior secured loans.
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to
Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in August 2009.
Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process
of rating this issuer can also be found on Moody's website.
Moody's Investors Service did not receive or take into account a
third-party due diligence report on the underlying assets or financial
instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past
Moody's modeled the transaction using the Binomial Expansion Technique,
as described in Section 22.214.171.124 of the "Moody's Approach
to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" rating methodology published
in August 2009.
In addition to the base case analysis described above, Moody's also
performed a number of sensitivity analyses to test the impact on all rated
notes, including the following:
1. Various default probabilities to capture potential defaults
in the underlying portfolio.
2. A range of recovery rate assumptions for all assets to capture
variability in recovery rates.
Below is a summary of the impact of different default probabilities (expressed
in terms of WARF levels) on all rated notes (shown in terms of the number
of notches' difference versus the current model output, where
a positive difference corresponds to lower expected loss), assuming
that all other factors are held equal:
Moody's Adjusted WARF -- 20% (2965)
Class A-1: +3
Class A-2a: +2
Class A-2b: +2
Class B: +2
Class C: +2
Class D: +3
Class E: +1
Moody's Adjusted WARF + 20% (4448)
Class A-1: -1
Class A-2a: -2
Class A-2b: -2
Class B: -2
Class C: -2
Class D: -3
Class E: 0
Below is a summary of the impact of different recovery rate levels on
all rated notes (shown in terms of the number of notches' difference
versus the current model output, where a positive difference corresponds
to lower expected loss), assuming that all other factors are held
Moody's Adjusted WARR + 2% (44.95%)
Class A-1: +1
Class A-2a: 0
Class A-2b: 0
Class B: 0
Class C: 0
Class D: +1
Class E: 0
Moody's Adjusted WARR - 2% (40.95%)
Class A-1: 0
Class A-2a: -1
Class A-2b: -1
Class B: -1
Class C: -1
Class D: -1
Class E: 0
Moody's notes that this transaction is subject to a high level of
macroeconomic uncertainty, as evidenced by 1) uncertainties of credit
conditions in the general economy and 2) the large concentration of speculative-grade
debt maturing between 2012 and 2014 which may create challenges for issuers
to refinance. CDO notes' performance may also be impacted
by 1) the managers' investment strategies and behavior, and
2) divergence in legal interpretation of CDO documentation by different
transactional parties due to embedded ambiguities.
Sources of additional performance uncertainties are described below:
1) Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in defaulted
assets reported by the trustee and those assumed to be defaulted by Moody's
may create volatility in the deal's overcollateralization levels.
Further, the timing of recoveries and the manager's decision
to work out versus selling defaulted assets create additional uncertainties.
Moody's analyzed defaulted recoveries assuming the lower of the
market price and the recovery rate in order to account for potential volatility
in market prices.
2) Long-dated assets: The presence of assets that mature
beyond the CLO's legal maturity date exposes the deal to liquidation
risk on those assets. Moody's assumes an asset's terminal
value upon liquidation at maturity to be equal to the lower of an assumed
liquidation value (depending on the extent to which the asset's
maturity lags that of the liabilities) and the asset's current market
3) Weighted average life: The notes' ratings are sensitive
to the weighted average life assumption of the portfolio, which
may be extended due to the manager's decision to reinvest into new
issue loans or other loans with longer maturities and/or participate in
amend-to-extend offerings. Moody's tested for
a possible extension of the actual weighted average life in its analysis.
4) Other collateral quality metrics: The deal is allowed to reinvest
and the manager has the ability to deteriorate the collateral quality
metrics' existing cushions against the covenant levels. Moody's
analyzed the impact of assuming lower of reported and covenanted values
for weighted average rating factor, weighted average spread,
weighted average coupon, and diversity score.
Further information on Moody's analysis of this transaction is available
on www.moodys.com. In addition, Moody's publishes
a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies,
available to all registered users of our web site, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.
Information sources used to prepare the credit rating are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential
and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's Investors Service considers the quality of information available
on the issuer or obligation satisfactory for the purposes of maintaining
a credit rating
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses
in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources
Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate,
independent third-party sources. However, Moody's
is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or
validate information received in the rating process.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on Moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some Credit Ratings were first released goes back to
a time before Moody's Investors Service's Credit Ratings were fully digitized
and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's
Investors Service provides a date that it believes is the most reliable
and accurate based on the information that is available to it.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com
for further information.
Please see the Credit Policy page on Moodys.com for the methodologies
used in determining ratings, further information on the meaning
of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
Moody's Investors Service
Moody's upgrades the rating of notes issued by Duane Street CLO III, Ltd.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007