USD $342 million of debt securities affected
New York, February 11, 2011 -- Moody's Investors Service announced today that it has upgraded the following
notes issued by Airlie CLO 2006-1 Ltd.:
U.S.$287,000,000 Class A-1 Senior
Secured Floating Rate Notes Due May 20, 2020 (current outstanding
balance $270,499,946), Upgraded to Aa2 (sf);
previously on September 4, 2009 Downgraded to Aa3 (sf);
U.S.$16,000,000 Class A-2 Senior
Secured Floating Rate Notes Due May 20, 2020, Upgraded to
A2 (sf); previously on September 4, 2009 Downgraded to A3 (sf);
U.S.$16,500,000 Class B Senior Secured
Deferrable Floating Rate Notes Due May 20, 2020, Upgraded
to Baa1 (sf); previously on November 23, 2010 Ba1 (sf) Placed
Under Review for Possible Upgrade;
U.S.$31,000,000 Class C Senior Secured
Deferrable Floating Rate Notes Due May 20, 2020, Upgraded
to Ba3 (sf); previously on November 23, 2010 Caa1 (sf) Placed
Under Review for Possible Upgrade;
U.S.$8,000,000 Class D Secured Deferrable
Floating Rate Notes Due May 20, 2020, Upgraded to Caa3 (sf);
previously on November 23, 2010 Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for
Possible Upgrade.
RATINGS RATIONALE
According to Moody's, the rating actions taken on the notes
result primarily from improvement in the credit quality of the underlying
portfolio and an increase in the transaction's overcollateralization
ratios since the rating action in September 2009. In Moody's view,
these positive developments coincide with reinvestment of sale proceeds
(including higher than previously anticipated recoveries realized on defaulted
securities) into substitute assets with higher par amounts and/or higher
ratings.
Improvement in the credit quality is observed through an improvement in
the average credit rating (as measured by the weighted average rating
factor) and a decrease in the proportion of securities from issuers rated
Caa1 and below. In particular, as of the latest trustee report
dated January 12, 2011, the weighted average rating factor
is currently 2464 compared to 2774 in the August 2009 report, and
securities rated Caa1/CCC+ or lower make up approximately 2.8%
of the underlying portfolio versus 8.7% in August 2009.
Moody's adjusted WARF has also declined since the rating action
in 2009 due to a decrease in the percentage of securities with ratings
on "Review for Possible Downgrade" or with a "Negative Outlook."
Additionally, there are currently no defaulted securities in the
underlying portfolio compared to $16.2 million in August
2009.
The overcollateralization ratios of the rated notes have also improved
since the rating action in September 2009. The Class A, Class
B, Class C, and Class D overcollateralization ratios are reported
at 124.75%, 117.96%, 107.01%,
and 104.50%, respectively, versus August 2009
levels of 118.60%, 112.35%, 102.24%,
and 99.85%, respectively, and all related overcollateralization
tests are currently in compliance. Moody's also notes that
the Class D Notes are no longer deferring interest and that all previously
deferred interest has been paid in full.
Due to the impact of revised and updated key assumptions referenced in
"Moody's Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" and
"Annual Sector Review (2009): Global CLOs," key
model inputs used by Moody's in its analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score, and weighted
average recovery rate, may be different from the trustee's reported
numbers. In its base case, Moody's analyzed the underlying
collateral pool to have a performing par and principal proceeds balance
of $357 million, no defaulted par, a weighted average
default probability of 27.42% (implying a WARF of 3571),
a weighted average recovery rate upon default of 43.50%,
and a diversity score of 55. These default and recovery properties
of the collateral pool are incorporated in cash flow model analysis where
they are subject to stresses as a function of the target rating of each
CLO liability being reviewed. The default probability is derived
from the credit quality of the collateral pool and Moody's expectation
of the remaining life of the collateral pool. The average recovery
rate to be realized on future defaults is based primarily on the seniority
of the assets in the collateral pool. In each case, historical
and market performance trends and collateral manager latitude for trading
the collateral are also factors.
Airlie CLO 2006-1 Ltd., issued in May 2006,
is a collateralized loan obligation backed primarily by a portfolio of
senior secured loans.
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to
Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in August 2009.
Moody's Investors Service did not receive or take into account a
third-party due diligence report on the underlying assets or financial
instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past
six months.
Moody's modeled the transaction using the Binomial Expansion Technique,
as described in Section 2.3.2.1 of the "Moody's Approach
to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" rating methodology published
in August 2009.
In addition to the base case analysis described above, Moody's also
performed sensitivity analyses to test the impact on all rated notes of
various default probabilities.
Below is a summary of the impact of different default probabilities (expressed
in terms of WARF levels) on all rated notes (shown in terms of the number
of notches' difference versus the current model output, where
a positive difference corresponds to lower expected loss), assuming
that all other factors are held equal:
Moody's Adjusted WARF -- 20% (2857)
Class A-1: +2
Class A-2: +3
Class B: +2
Class C: +2
Class D: +3
Moody's Adjusted WARF + 20% (4285)
Class A-1: -2
Class A-2: -1
Class B: -2
Class C: -1
Class D: -2
Moody's notes that this transaction is subject to a high level of
macroeconomic uncertainty, as evidenced by 1) uncertainties of credit
conditions in the general economy and 2) the large concentration of speculative-grade
debt maturing between 2012 and 2014 which may create challenges for issuers
to refinance. CDO notes' performance may also be impacted
by 1) the manager's investment strategy and behavior and 2) divergence
in legal interpretation of CDO documentation by different transactional
parties due to embedded ambiguities.
Sources of additional performance uncertainties are described below:
1) Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in defaulted
assets reported by the trustee and those assumed to be defaulted by Moody's
may create volatility in the deal's overcollateralization levels.
Further, the timing of recoveries and the manager's decision
to work out versus sell defaulted assets create additional uncertainties.
Moody's analyzed defaulted recoveries assuming the lower of the
market price and the recovery rate in order to account for potential volatility
in market prices.
2) Weighted average life: The notes' ratings are sensitive
to the weighted average life assumption of the portfolio, which
may be extended due to the manager's decision to reinvest into new
issue loans or other loans with longer maturities and/or participate in
amend-to-extend offerings. Moody's tested for
a possible extension of the actual weighted average life in its analysis.
3) Other collateral quality metrics: The deal is allowed to reinvest
and the manager has the ability to deteriorate the collateral quality
metrics' existing cushions against the covenant levels. Moody's
analyzed the impact of assuming lower of reported and covenanted values
for weighted average rating factor, weighted average spread,
weighted average coupon, and diversity score.
Further information on Moody's analysis of this transaction is available
on www.moodys.com. In addition, Moody's publishes
a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies,
available to all registered users of our web site, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
Information sources used to prepare the credit rating are the following:
parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential
and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's Investors Service considers the quality of information available
on the issuer or obligation satisfactory for the purposes of maintaining
a credit rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses
in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources
Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate,
independent third-party sources. However, Moody's
is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or
validate information received in the rating process.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on Moodys.com
for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some Credit Ratings were first released goes back to
a time before Moody's Investors Service's Credit Ratings were fully digitized
and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's
Investors Service provides a date that it believes is the most reliable
and accurate based on the information that is available to it.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com
for further information.
Please see the Credit Policy page on Moodys.com for the methodologies
used in determining ratings, further information on the meaning
of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
New York
Shana Sethi
Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
New York
Yu Sun
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's Investors Service
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's upgrades the ratings of notes issued by Airlie CLO 2006-1 Ltd.
