New York, October 07, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded the ratings on notes issued by
Ashford CDO I, Ltd.:
U.S.$27,000,000 Class A-3L Notes
Due December 11, 2040 (current outstanding balance of $25,038,414),
Upgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on April 23, 2014 Upgraded
to Baa1 (sf);
U.S.$20,000,000 Class B-1L Notes
Due December 11, 2040 (current outstanding balance of $16,880,302),
Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on April 23, 2014 Upgraded
to Ba2 (sf).
Ashford CDO I, Ltd., issued in December 2005,
is a collateralized debt obligation backed primarily by a portfolio of
CLO tranches originated from 2004 to 2007.
RATINGS RATIONALE
These rating actions are due primarily to the deleveraging of the senior
notes and an increase in the transaction's over-collateralization
(OC) ratios. Since the last rating action in April 2014,
$44.6 million of principal proceeds have been paid to the
notes, mostly from unscheduled redemptions of underlying CLO assets.
The Class A-1LB notes and Class A-2L notes have paid down
in full and Class A-3L notes have paid down by approximately 7.3%
or $2.0 million since April 2014. Based on the trustee's
September report, the OC ratios of Class A and Class B notes are
reported at 171.2% and 119.1%, versus
April 2014 levels of 147.5% and 113.0%,
respectively. Moody's notes that the September 2014 trustee
reported OC ratios do not take into account $21.5 million
of principal proceeds that was paid to the Class A-2L and Class
A-3L notes holders on the September 11, 2014 payment date.
The deal has also benefited from an improvement in the weighted average
spread (WAS) of the underlying portfolio since April 2014. Based
on the trustee's September 2014 report, the WAS is currently
2.91%, compared to 2.70% in April 2014.
Additionally, the weighted average rating factor of the deal has
been stable.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to
Rating SF CDOs," published in March 2014. Please see the
Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this
methodology.
Factors That Would Lead To an Upgrade or Downgrade of the Rating:
This transaction is subject to a number of factors and circumstances that
could lead to either an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings, as
described below:
1) Macroeconomic uncertainty: The performance of SF CDOs backed
by CLOs (CLO squareds) could be negatively affected by 1) uncertainty
about credit conditions in the general economy (macroeconomic uncertainty),
and 2) the large concentration of upcoming speculative-grade debt
maturities, which could make refinancing difficult for issuers.
Additionally, the performance of the CLO assets can also be affected
positively or negatively by 1) the manager's investment strategy
and behavior and 2) differences in the legal interpretation of CLO documentation
by different transaction parties owing to embedded ambiguities.
2) Deleveraging: One source of uncertainty in this transaction is
whether deleveraging from unscheduled principal proceeds, including
those from optional redemptions of underlying CLO assets, recoveries
from defaulted assets, and excess interest proceeds will continue
and at what pace. Faster deleveraging than Moody's expects
could have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
3) Recovery of defaulted assets: The amount of recoveries received
from defaulted assets reported by the trustee and those that Moody's
assumes as having defaulted as well as the timing of these recoveries
create additional uncertainty. Moody's analyzed defaulted
assets assuming no recoveries, and therefore, realization
of any recoveries in the future would positively impact the notes'
ratings.
Loss and Cash Flow Analysis:
Moody's applies a Monte Carlo simulation framework in Moody's
CDOROM™ to model the loss distribution for SF CDOs. The simulated
defaults and recoveries for each of the Monte Carlo scenarios define the
reference pool's loss distribution. Moody's then uses
the loss distribution as an input in the CDOEdge™ cash flow model.
In addition to the base case analysis, Moody's also conducted sensitivity
analyses to test the impact of a number of default probabilities on the
rated notes. Below is a summary of the impact of different default
probabilities (expressed in terms of WARF) on all of the rated notes (by
the difference in the number of notches versus the current model output,
for which a positive difference corresponds to lower expected loss):
Ba1 and below ratings notched up by two rating notches (702):
Class A-3L: +1
Class B-1L: 0
Ba1 and below ratings notched down by two notches (1482):
Class A-3L: 0
Class B-1L: -1
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party
assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets
or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction
in the past six months.
Moody's describes its loss and cash flow analysis in the section
"Ratings Rationale" of this press release.
As the section on loss and cash flow analysis describes, Moody's
quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors
contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood
of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody's
weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of
the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Haoning Ding
Associate Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Ramon O Torres
Senior Vice President/Manager
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's upgrades the ratings on USD 42 million of SF CDO notes issued by Ashford CDO I, Ltd.