Approximately $197 million of asset-backed securities affected
New York, July 21, 2014 -- Moody's has upgraded thirteen tranches in six tobacco settlement
revenue securitizations. The bonds are backed by payments of major
tobacco companies to the issuer states pursuant to the Master Settlement
Agreement (MSA) between certain domestic tobacco manufacturers,
46 states and certain territories.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgraded tranches benefit from significant cash reserves and relatively
short-term maturities, both of which minimize the impact
of cigarette consumption declines over the long term. The
tranches are either fully supported or predominantly supported by cash
reserves in the respective transactions' accounts. Therefore,
even significant cigarette consumption declines will not disrupt timely
payments to the bond-holders.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Actions:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach
to Rating Tobacco Settlement Revenue Securitizations" published in February
2014. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating:
Moody's could upgrade the ratings if the annual rate of cigarette
consumption decline slows down. Conversely, Moody's
could downgrade the ratings if the annual rate of decline in the volume
of domestic cigarette shipments increase beyond the 3%-to-4%
or if an arbitration panel finds that a state that has not settled its
NPM adjustment dispute was not diligent in enforcing a certain statute,
which could lead to a significant decline in cash flow to that state.
The complete rating actions are as follows:
Issuer: Buckeye Tobacco Settlement Financing Authority, Tobacco
Settlement Asset-Backed Bonds, Series 2007 (State of Ohio)
Series 2007A-1-11 Senior Current Interest Serial Bonds,
Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Feb 20, 2014 Affirmed A1
(sf)
Series 2007A-1-12 Senior Current Interest Serial Bonds,
Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Feb 20, 2014 Upgraded to
A3 (sf)
Issuer: California Statewide Financing Authority (Pooled Tobacco
Securitization Program) , Series 2002
Series 2002A Serial Bonds 12, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously
on Feb 20, 2014 Upgraded to Aa3 (sf)
Series 2002B Serial Bonds 12, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously
on Feb 20, 2014 Upgraded to Aa3 (sf)
Series 2002A Serial Bonds 13, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously
on Feb 20, 2014 Upgraded to Aa3 (sf)
Series 2002B Serial Bonds 13, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously
on Feb 20, 2014 Upgraded to Aa3 (sf)
Issuer: Golden State Tobacco Securitization Corporation (2007 Indenture)
CI Bds A-1-11, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously
on Feb 20, 2014 Upgraded to Aa3 (sf)
CI Bds A-1-12, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously
on Feb 20, 2014 Upgraded to A1 (sf)
CI Bds A-1-13, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously
on Feb 20, 2014 Upgraded to A1 (sf)
Issuer: New York Counties Tobacco Trust II, Series 2001
Serial Bond Class 11, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Feb
20, 2014 Affirmed A1 (sf)
Issuer: Rensselaer Tobacco Asset Securitization Corporation,
Series A
Serial Bond Class 11, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Feb
20, 2014 Affirmed A1 (sf)
Issuer: Tobacco Settlement Financing Corporation (New Jersey),
Series 2007-1
2007-1A Serial Bond 9, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously
on Feb 20, 2014 Upgraded to Aa3 (sf)
2007-1A Serial Bond 10, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously
on Feb 20, 2014 Upgraded to Aa3 (sf)
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions of the disclosure form.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party
assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets
or financial instruments related to the monitoring of these transactions
in the past six months.
The analysis relies on a Monte Carlo simulation that generates a large
number of collateral loss or cash flow scenarios, which on average
meet key metrics Moody's determines based on its assessment of the
collateral characteristics. Moody's then evaluates each simulated
scenario using model that replicates the relevant structural features
and payment allocation rules of the transaction, to derive losses
or payments for each rated instrument. The average loss a rated
instrument incurs in all of the simulated collateral loss or cash flow
scenarios, which Moody's weights based on its assumptions
about the likelihood of events in such scenarios actually occurring,
results in the expected loss of the rated instrument.
As the section on loss and cash flow analysis describes, Moody's
quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios that stress factors
contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into account the likelihood
of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows. Moody's
weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its assumptions of
the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series
or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings
are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's
rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular
rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the
support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings,
this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation
to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive
rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt,
in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed
prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would
have affected the rating. For further information please see the
ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and
whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the
associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Jinyang Wang
Asst Vice President - Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Irina Faynzilberg
VP - Sr Credit Officer/Manager
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service, Inc.
250 Greenwich Street
New York, NY 10007
U.S.A.
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653
Moody's upgrades thirteen tranches from six tobacco settlement revenue securitizations