London, 18 October 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today upgraded the ratings of
one note in Alba 2005-1 plc and one note in Alba 2007-1
plc. The rating action reflects the increased levels of credit
enhancement for the affected notes, and better than expected collateral
performance.
Moody's affirmed the ratings of the notes that had sufficient credit enhancement
to maintain their current ratings.
Issuer: Alba 2005-1 plc
....GBP105M Class A3 Notes, Affirmed
A1 (sf); previously on Jul 27, 2017 Upgraded to A1 (sf)
........Underlying
Rating: Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Jul 27, 2017
Upgraded to A1 (sf)
....GBP21.65M Class B Notes,
Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Jul 27, 2017 Upgraded to A1
(sf)
....GBP13.25M Class C Notes,
Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Jul 27, 2017 Upgraded to A1
(sf)
....GBP6.8M Class D Notes, Affirmed
Baa2 (sf); previously on Oct 14, 2015 Upgraded to Baa2 (sf)
....GBP4.05M Class E Notes, Upgraded
to Ba1 (sf); previously on Oct 14, 2015 Upgraded to B2 (sf)
Issuer: Alba 2007-1 plc
....GBP269M Class A3 Notes, Affirmed
A1 (sf); previously on Jul 27, 2017 Upgraded to A1 (sf)
....GBP105.8M Class B Notes,
Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Jul 27, 2017 Upgraded to A1
(sf)
....GBP20.4M Class F Notes, Upgraded
to Ba2 (sf); previously on Oct 14, 2015 Upgraded to B2 (sf)
Moody's does not rate the Class C, Class D or Class E Notes
of Alba 2007-1 plc.
The two transactions are static cash securitisations of non-conforming
residential mortgages extended to obligors located in the UK, prior
to 2008, with a high exposure to interest only loans. In
both transactions the principal payments waterfall can switch between
pro-rata and sequential amortization subject to pre-defined
conditions being met and in both transactions the notes are currently
amortising pro-rata.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating action is prompted by an increase in credit enhancement for
the affected tranches, as well as decreased key collateral assumptions,
namely the portfolio Expected Loss (EL) in both transactions and,
in Alba 2007-1 plc, the decreased MILAN CE due to better
than expected collateral performance. The ratings of the affirmed
notes are constrained by financial disruption risk.
Increase in Available Credit Enhancement
The notes' amortisation combined with fully funded non amortising reserve
funds led to the increase in the credit enhancement available in both
transactions.
The credit enhancement for Class E in Alba 2005-1 plc upgraded
in today's rating action increased to 5.8% from 3.4%
since the last rating action in October 2015.
The credit enhancement for Class F in Alba 2007-1 plc increased
to 3.5% from 2.0% since the last rating action
in October 2015.
Key Collateral Assumptions:
As part of the rating action, Moody's reassessed its lifetime loss
expectation for the portfolio reflecting the collateral performance to
date.
The performance of both transactions has been better than expected.
Arrears greater than 90 days as a percentage of current pool balance are
currently standing at 3.22% and 4.91%,
with a pool factor at 14.9% and 28.9% respectively
in Alba 2005-1 plc and Alba 2007-1 plc.
Cumulative losses in Alba 2005-1 plc stand at 2.46%
as a proportion of original pool balance, whereas they stand at
3.3% in Alba 2007-1 plc. Furthermore,
the phasing out of coronavirus-related forbearance measures has
not translated into materially worsened collateral performance in either
transaction. The weighted average pool indexed loan to values in
both transactions are furthermore moderate at 44.4% in Alba
2005-1 plc and 53.0% in Alba 2007-1 plc.
Moody's assumed an expected loss of 2.58% and 2.84%
on current balance for Alba 2005-1 plc and Alba 2007-1 plc
respectively, due to better than expected collateral performance.
This corresponds to an expected loss assumption as a percentage of the
original pool balance of 2.84% and 4.14% for
Alba 2005-1 plc and Alba 2007-1 plc respectively,
down from the previous assumptions of 3.10% and 5.25%.
Moody's has also assessed loan-by-loan information as a
part of its detailed transaction review to determine the credit support
consistent with target rating levels and the volatility of future losses.
Based on the assessment of the current composition of the pools backing
the two transactions, Moody's has maintained the MILAN CE assumption
for Alba 2005-1 plc at 17% and reduced the MILAN CE in Alba
2007-1 plc to 24% from 27% respectively.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Approach
to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in December 2020 and
available at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBS_1248130.
Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com
for a copy of this methodology.
The analysis undertaken by Moody's at the initial assignment of ratings
for RMBS securities may focus on aspects that become less relevant or
typically remain unchanged during the surveillance stage. Please
see "Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" for further
information on Moody's analysis at the initial rating assignment and the
on-going surveillance in RMBS.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings
include: (i) performance of the underlying collateral that is better
than Moody's expected; (ii) an increase in available credit enhancement;
(iii) improvements in the credit quality of the transaction counterparties;
and (iv) a decrease in sovereign risk.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings
include: (i) an increase in sovereign risk; (ii) performance
of the underlying collateral that is worse than Moody's expected;
(iii) deterioration in the notes' available credit enhancement; and
(iv) deterioration in the credit quality of the transaction counterparties.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For further specification of Moody's key rating assumptions and
sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and
Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody's
Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.
The analysis relies on an assessment of collateral characteristics to
determine the collateral loss distribution, that is, the function
that correlates to an assumption about the likelihood of occurrence to
each level of possible losses in the collateral. As a second step,
Moody's evaluates each possible collateral loss scenario using a
model that replicates the relevant structural features to derive payments
and therefore the ultimate potential losses for each rated instrument.
The loss a rated instrument incurs in each collateral loss scenario,
weighted by assumptions about the likelihood of events in that scenario
occurring, results in the expected loss of the rated instrument.
Moody's quantitative analysis entails an evaluation of scenarios
that stress factors contributing to sensitivity of ratings and take into
account the likelihood of severe collateral losses or impaired cash flows.
Moody's weights the impact on the rated instruments based on its
assumptions of the likelihood of the events in such scenarios occurring.
For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of
debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures
in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the
same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant
to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing
ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings
issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain
regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the
support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action
for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's
credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement
provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional
rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may
be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each
case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior
to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have
affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings
tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit
support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action,
and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action,
the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity.
Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures,
if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure
to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated
agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody's Policy
for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on
its website www.moodys.com.
Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit
rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating
review.
Moody's general principles for assessing environmental, social
and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1288435.
The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was
issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed
by Moody's Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt
am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph
3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies.
Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's
office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to
the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued
the rating.
Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com
for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Lisa Macedo
Vice President - Senior Analyst
Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Gaby Trinkaus, CFA
VP - Senior Credit Officer
Structured Finance Group
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
Releasing Office:
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.
One Canada Square
Canary Wharf
London E14 5FA
United Kingdom
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456
Client Service: 44 20 7772 5454
