Moody's Investors Service
ASIA PACIFIC WEEKLY
20-27 July 2016
 

In this week’s Asia Pacific Weekly, we discuss the USD exposures of our rated high-yield corporates in South and Southeast Asia. Our research shows that a total 33 of our 37 rated non-financial, high-yield companies with USD debt show protections against a significant rise in leverage or contraction in EBITDA, should their local currencies depreciate up to 20% against the USD.

We also examine the evolution of the external debt of emerging markets. In this context, the Asia Pacific region had the highest growth in debt, with the largest increase in external borrowing occurring in China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Malaysia. Our analysis concludes that private sector debt drives a broad-based build-up of external vulnerability risks for emerging markets.

And our latest report on global green bonds shows that issuance during Q2 2016 reached a new quarterly high of $20.3 billion, raising total volume to $37.2 billion for H1 2016, an 89% increase over the same period a year ago. With strong issuance already observable in the first two weeks of Q3 2016, the global green bond market is poised to reach $75 billion in total volume for the year and set a new record for the fifth consecutive year.

And in our July edition of Inside China, we note that the Mainland has the tools to prevent a financial crisis from materializing in the near future, but that an erosion of credit quality is likely. The publication also discusses China’s rising contingent liabilities, banks’ investments in loans and receivables, Internet companies, and more.

In terms of events, the 2nd Moody’s, ICRA and NYU Stern Conference: Opportunities and Challenges for Indian Credit will be held in Mumbai on 3 August. The conference will include discussions on the state of the Indian corporate sector; lessons for the banking sector from the financial crisis; the role of bank boards on risk taking; and the experience of public sector divestment.

We will also hold briefings on New Zealand banks and covered bond sectors in Auckland on 2 August and Wellington on 5 August.

And for those of you who missed Moody's Global Teleconference Series “The Credit Performance of Infrastructure Debt” we are pleased to provide a replay here.

For full details on all our upcoming events as well as replays, please refer to the list below.

 

Best regards,

MinYe

Min Ye
Managing Director – Regional Head Asia Pacific

To access the information within this email we ask that you register to Moodys.com. Registration is complimentary.

 

 
In This Edition
 

RESEARCH

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Quarterly China Shadow Banking Monitor
[27 Jul] The overall leverage in China's economy continues to rise, as credit growth -- measured by total social financing -- outpaces nominal GDP. The growth in overall leverage may be understated, because some of the fastest growing components of shadow banking are not included in TSF. We estimate the potential understatement to be significant, amounting to at least RMB16 trillion or 23% of GDP at end-2015, equivalent to around one-third of shadow banking.

Green Bonds - Global: Record Quarterly Issuance Achieved in Q2 2016; Market Poised to Reach $75 billion
[26 Jul] Global green bond issuance in Q2 2016 reached a new quarterly high of $20.3 billion -- well above the $16.9 billion recorded in Q1 -- and resulting in a total for the first six months of the year of $37.2 billion, up 89% from $19.7 billion for the first half of 2015.

Inside China - July
[26 Jul] China has the tools to prevent a financial crisis from materializing in the near future, but that an erosion of credit quality is likely. Specifically, China's domestically funded and state-backed financial system, combined with a wide range of policy tools (including moral suasion) act as powerful mitigants to the risk of a financial crisis.

Indian auto ABS: Greater Commercial Vehicle Sales and ABS Issuance in FY2017 Reflect Positive Credit Conditions
[26 Jul] The issuance of Indian asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by loans on sales of commercial vehicles and commercial equipment -- the main ABS asset classes in India -- will continue to grow in the fiscal year ending 31 March 2017 (FY2017), extending the strong growth rates recorded in FY2016.

Australia Legal Framework for Covered Bonds
[26 Jul] The Australian legal framework for covered bonds contains relatively few prescriptive requirements, but rather relies on issuers to create programme structures using a contractual framework.

Asia TMT Quarterly – July 2016
[26 Jul] This edition, which covers the period from 1 April to 30 June 2016, incorporates a market trends snapshot of current rating trends and credit topics along with a selection of Moody's rating and research activities in the past quarter.

Soilbuild REIT: Credit Impact of Tenant under Judicial Management and Planned Acquisition: A Scenario Analysis
[25 Jul] We examined three scenarios and their potential impact on Soilbuild Business Space REIT's credit profile. In each scenario, we estimated the impact on (1) Soilbuild REIT's earnings and asset valuation that could result from the lost income from defaulted tenant Technics Offshore Engineering Pte. Ltd (unrated) at its 72 Loyang Way property; and (2) its capital structure which is dependent on the funding mix of its planned acquisition of Bukit Batok Connection for SGD100 million.

RMBS - India: Underwriting Standards for Affordable Housing Loans Can Differentiate RMBS Performance
[25 Jul] The underwriting practices of lenders are vital to controlling credit risk in India's "affordable housing loans" segment which is set to grow strongly over the next few years as the government tries to increase home ownership among underprivileged groups.

High-Yield Corporates in South and Southeast Asia: Most Rated Companies Maintain Safeguards Against Exposure to US Dollar Debt
[21 Jul] A total 33 of our 37 rated non-financial, high-yield companies with USD debt show protections against a significant rise in leverage or contraction in EBITDA, should their local currencies depreciate up to 20% against the USD. At the same time, although the local currencies, which consist primarily of the Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee, have shown relative stability in 2016, we continue to monitor the risk of profitability declining, or debt levels and borrowing costs rising, if they weaken against the dollar.

The Evolution of Emerging Markets External Debt: Private Sector Debt Drives Broad-Based Build-Up of Emerging Markets External Vulnerability Risks
[21 Jul] The growth in debt was the highest in the Asia Pacific region, with the largest increase in external borrowing in China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Malaysia. While China's external debt to GDP ratio is still the second-lowest globally at 13% of GDP in 2015, the average external debt to GDP ratio for Asia as a whole has recently increased from 31% in 2008 to 47% in 2015 -- well below the 78% of Emerging Europe, but comparable to the 48% in Latin America and the 43% in the Middles East and Africa region.

High-Yield Bond Covenants — Asia: Covenant Quality Strengthens in Q2
[20 Jul] The average covenant quality score for Asian high-yield bonds issued during the April-June 2016 quarter (Q2 2016) was at a moderate 2.63. The score improved from the weak 3.48 registered during Q1 2016 and the 2.90 seen in Q4 2015.

Moody’s Credit Outlook on 21 & 25 July

[21 Jul] Joy City's Proposed Stake Sale in Subsidiaries Is Credit Positive
for COFCO HK; Azerbaijan's Recession Deepens with Oil Price Decline and
Currency Devaluation, a Credit Negative; Astaldi's Turkish Projects Face Increasing Risks, a
Credit Negative; and more

[25 Jul] SoftBank's $31 Billion ARM Acquisition Is Credit Negative; Indian Overseas Bank and Central Bank of India Benefit from Government's Capital Infusion; New Zealand Banks Will Benefit from Tighter Rules on High-LTV Mortgage Loans; Mongolia Strengthens Ties with South Korea, a Credit Positive; and more


 

RATING EVENTS

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CHINA
[20 Jul] Moody's revises outlook on Yuexiu Transport to stable; affirms Baa2 ratings
[22 Jul] Moody's assigns definitive ratings to Driver China four Trust, a Chinese auto loan ABS deal
[26 Jul] Moody's assigns first-time B2 ratings to Fenghui Leasing

HONG KONG
[20 Jul] Moody's assigns provisional (P)Ba3 to Greenland Hong Kong's proposed perpetual capital securities

INDIA
[20 Jul] Moody's affirms Export-Import Bank of India's Baa3 ratings; lowers BCA to
ba3

INDONESIA
[25 Jul] Moody's downgrades MNC Investama's corporate family rating to B3 and senior secured bond rating to Caa1; outlook negative

JAPAN
[20 Jul] Moody's affirms SoftBank's Ba1 rating
[25 Jul] Moody's affirms A1 (sf) rating for Bora 2 backed by residential mortgages insured by JHF

KOREA
[26 Jul] Moody's: S-OIL's robust 2Q 2016 results support its Baa2 rating
[26 Jul] Moody's revises outlook on SK Innovation's and SK Global Chemical's Baa2 ratings to positive

MALAYSIA
[21 Jul] Moody's affirms Export-Import Bank of Malaysia's ratings; outlook stable
[22 Jul] Moody's assigns definitive Baa2 rating to Axiata's sukuk notes

SINGAPORE
[22 Jul] Moody's affirms OCBC Wing Hang Bank's ratings following its acquisition of OCBC Bank (China) Limited; outlook remains negative

 


 

ANNOUNCEMENTS

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AUSTRALIA
[22 Jul] Moody's: Rating of BHB Residential Securities Trust 1 Series 1A unaffected by issuance of additional notes

CHINA
[21 Jul] Moody's: Biostime's ratings unaffected by proposed roll-up call option transactions
[25 Jul] Moody's: Progress on Vedanta-Cairn India merger is credit positive for Vedanta Resources
[25 Jul] Moody's: Hangzhou Hikvision's 1H 2016 results are in line with its A3 ratings
[26 Jul] Moody's: COSL's 1H2016 profit warning is credit negative; no immediate rating impact
[26 Jul] Moody's: SINOPEC Engineering's profit warning is credit negative; mitigated by strong liquidity
[26 Jul] Moody's: No immediate rating impact from CITIC Limited's profit warning
[26 Jul] Moody's: China's railway expansion plan is credit positive for China Railway Group
[26 Jul] Moody's: China Railway Construction is a key beneficiary of China's robust railway expansion plan

JAPAN
[22 Jul] Moody's: Chugoku Bank rebalances portfolio; raises risk-weighted assets

KOREA
[22 Jul] Moody's: POSCO's ratings unaffected by its moderate 2Q results
[22 Jul] Moody's: LG Chem's robust 2Q 2016 results support its A3 rating
[25 Jul] Moody's: Hyundai Steel's 2Q 2016 results meet expectations

 


 

MOODY'S EVENTS

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Briefing: New Zealand Banks and Covered Bond Sectors: What Lies Ahead and How Do These Sectors Compare Globally?
Auckland, 2 Aug

The 2nd Moody’s, ICRA and NYU Stern Conference: Opportunities and Challenges for Indian Fixed Income Markets
Mumbai, 3 Aug

Sponsorship: KangaNews New Zealand DCM Summit 2016
Auckland, 3 Aug

Briefing: New Zealand Banks and Covered Bond Sectors: What Lies Ahead and How Do These Sectors Compare Globally?
Wellington, 5 Aug

Sponsorship: The 8th Annual Corporate Treasury & CFO Summit
Manila, 16 Aug

Moody’s & ICRA Workshop - Understanding Covered Bonds: Is the Time Ripe for Covered Bonds in India?
Mumbai, 23 Aug

Sponsorship: Frontier Conference - Invest Mongolia Ulaanbaatar 2016
Ulaanbaatar, 5 - 6 Sep

Pre-Event Workshop: Moody’s APAC Structured Finance Conference 2016--Asian Securitization and Covered Bonds Navigating Through Tumultuous Changes
Singapore, 27 Sep

Main Conference: Moody’s APAC Structured Finance Conference 2016--Asian Securitization and Covered Bonds Navigating Through Tumultuous Changes
Singapore, 27 Sep

Sponsorship: ASIFMA Structured Finance Conference 2016 - Asian Securitization and Covered Bonds
Singapore, 29 Sep

Sponsorship: World Bank - Singapore Infrastructure Finance Summit: Connectivity and Sustainability in an Era of Volatile Markets and Disruptive Technologies
Singapore, 17 Oct

Click below to access teleconference / webcast replay. (*Free registration is required)
Moody's Global Teleconference Series: The Credit Performance of Infrastructure Debt

 


 

MOODY'S TRAINING SEMINARS

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HONG KONG
Counterparty Credit Risk, 15-16 Aug
Introduction to Derivatives, 17-18 Aug
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 5-7 Sep
Credit Reasoning & Writing, 8-9 Sep

KUALA LUMPUR
Islamic Finance – Risk Management, 21-22 Nov
Islamic Finance – Sukuk: Theory and Practice, 23-24 Nov

SINGAPORE
Bank Regulation: Impact and Implications of Evolving Regimes, 11-12 Aug
Analyzing Sovereign and Country Risk, 15-16 Aug
Advanced Bank Risk Analysis, 17-19 Aug
Corporate Credit Rating Analysis, 31 Oct-2 Nov
Covenants & Documentation, 3 Nov
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 6-9 Dec

SYDNEY
Fundamentals of Corporate Credit, 29 Aug-1 Sep
Advanced Corporate Credit Analysis, 11-13 Oct
Covenants and Documentation, 14 Oct

TOKYO
Fundamentals of Bank Credit Risk Analysis, 1-2 Dec

 


  CONTACT US Back to top button  
 

Asia Pacific Client Desk
Research & Subscriptions
+852.3551.3077


Kelly Moy

Senior Vice President
North Asia
+852.3758.1323

Vineet Gupta
Vice President
India
+91.750.625.0104

Cynthia Zhao
Vice President
North China - Beijing
+86.10.6319.6566

Maria Lee
Vice President
South China - Hong Kong
+852.3758.1338

Yasushi Furuya
VP-Account Management
Japan
+81.3.5408.4272

James Flitton
Vice President
Singapore
+65.6398.8338

Miki Zhou
Vice President
Central China - Shanghai
+86.21.6101.0227

 


 

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